The market dying?

[mearls]

Indeed. Every year the first portion of "Year's Best Science Fiction" is spent debunking the "SF is dying" theory that propagates itself despite the fact that more SF books are published every year than the previous.

I have a theory that every geek pastime has a sort of apocalyptic death cult attached to it. Just as there's religious cults utterly convinced that the end of the world is just around the corner, in RPGs, SF, TCGs, whatever, there's always going to be a hard core that almost seems like they *need* their hobby to be in dire straits.

I remember threads about this stuff since I was first online, back in 1993. I'm sure you'd find similar threads on Google's Usenet archive back in the '80s.

 

[Maggan]

Then again, Mearls is not a businessman, and with WotC being a large corporation (or at least part of one), I am pretty sure that he would quite likely not have access to any of their sales numbers, so anything he says in that regards could possibly be considered office gossip.

But I on the other hand would surmise that there is a greater chance for Mearls to have access to sales data for D&D than, say, Pramas.

Really, what you are saying is that the fact that Pramas used to work for WotC is a thing which speaks for him as an authority you trust. The fact that Mearls works for WotC makes his input "office gossip".

So having worked for WotC = good and reliable

Working for WotC = office gossip

As for corporations always saying everything is fine, I've done that as well. Written press releases about the latest awards won, new clients aquired and all that, while basically the company was falling apart around us (web agency during 2000 to 2001). So I've told a few corporate "lies" in my life ...

Come to think of it, WotC hiring Mearls could be an indicator that D&D is doing ok. Why would they add more expenses to the company if they were doing badly? Wouldn't they instead try to downsize and farm out stuff to freelancers?

Or is it the opposite? The fact that they needed to hire Mearls, means that they are desperate for a new edition, and that he's heading the project for 4e which is the only thing that can save D&D?

And Rasyr, I apologise for picking on you all the time, it seems as if I only reply to your posts. I guess it's something about how you write and what you say that makes my fingers itchy.

Cheers!

/M

 

[mearls]

Come to think of it, WotC hiring Mearls could be an indicator that D&D is doing ok. Why would they add more expenses to the company if they were doing badly? Wouldn't they instead try to downsize and farm out stuff to freelancers?

We also hired three full-timers last year: Matt Sernett, Michelle Lyons, and Stephen Schubert.

EDIT: I expect people to question everything I say because I work for WotC. But I also expect people to extend the same skepticism to employees of other companies. Everyone involved in the production and sale of RPGs has a stake in how gamers perceive the market. If I come out and say, "D&D is doing fine while other games/companies are having trouble," there's obviously an advantage for other companies to attempt to debunk that.

Really, for the typical gamer on the street this doesn't mean much. I think it's good when gamers have enough interest in the hobby that they want to see it thrive. If you are concerned about the future of the hobby, you're probably better off recruiting new gamers. That's really the best thing you can do.

 

[Rasyr]

But I on the other hand would surmise that there is a greater chance for Mearls to have access to sales data for D&D than, say, Pramas.

In-house data? Quite likely he has a greater chance (with the chance being slim to none for in-house employees that are not in the accounting departments). But that is not the only place data can be gathered.

Really, what you are saying is that the fact that Pramas used to work for WotC is a thing which speaks for him as an authority you trust. The fact that Mearls works for WotC makes his input "office gossip".

Sorry if that was the way it came across, but it isn't what I meant. My comment about Chris formerly working at WotC was only meant to indicate that he knows the corporate culture, and would understand whether or not a statement by somebody working from WotC would be spinning something due to the corporate culture.

But the biggest thing is that Chris is running his own company, and successfully, and to me that says that he is in a better position to judge the overall rpg market. He deals with things that Mearls does not. Things that can give him information on the whole market.

Where Mearls has already shown (in an earlier post) that he pretty much discounts everything that is not D&D. Sorry, but I find that a bit limiting in his perspective. If D&D were such a huge factor of the market, then however the market is going then so is D&D (i.e. market is shrinking overall).

As for corporations always saying everything is fine, I've done that as well. Written press releases about the latest awards won, new clients aquired and all that, while basically the company was falling apart around us (web agency during 2000 to 2001). So I've told a few corporate "lies" in my life ...

Not corporate lies, it's spin-doctoring, or "Accentuating the Positive". (now if I can just remember where I got that phrase - song from an old movie, IIRC).

Come to think of it, WotC hiring Mearls could be an indicator that D&D is doing ok. Why would they add more expenses to the company if they were doing badly? Wouldn't they instead try to downsize and farm out stuff to freelancers?

Or is it the opposite? The fact that they needed to hire Mearls, means that they are desperate for a new edition, and that he's heading the project for 4e which is the only thing that can save D&D?

Well, I even take a guess on this one, but I will point out that on these very fora, Mearls did state (sometime late last year or early this year, IIRC) in one of the many 4E threads that he thought that 4e would be out in a "few years" because of the hiring that WotC was doing at the time. He was hired a few months later. Take from that what you will.

And Rasyr, I apologise for picking on you all the time, it seems as if I only reply to your posts. I guess it's something about how you write and what you say that makes my fingers itchy.

hehe... Then click on the first link in my sig, go read that, and start up a thread about it.

Seriously, no problems here. Nisarg used to do the same to me (though in a much more volatile manner) back when he was around here. At least I am not making you want to strangle me.... or am I?????

 

[Rasyr]

I think it's good when gamers have enough interest in the hobby that they want to see it thrive. If you are concerned about the future of the hobby, you're probably better off recruiting new gamers. That's really the best thing you can do.

To this, I can fully and whole-heartedly agree.

 

[JVisgaitis]

Opinions?

I bought The Five Nations which was my first d20 purchase in 8 months (I'm not counting product I've traded for) and I didn't buy a single d20 product at Gencon. I know I myself am getting a lot more frugal with my purchases. If it falls into the "this is the greatest thing ever catergory" I'm buying. If not, I don't bother. I think the market has matured and people are willing to shell out top dollar for quality product from proven publishers. However, I think if a new company tried to release a product at those prices regardless of quality it wouldn't move an inch.

 

[Nikchick]

But I on the other hand would surmise that there is a greater chance for Mearls to have access to sales data for D&D than, say, Pramas.

Really, what you are saying is that the fact that Pramas used to work for WotC is a thing which speaks for him as an authority you trust. The fact that Mearls works for WotC makes his input "office gossip".

So having worked for WotC = good and reliable

Working for WotC = office gossip

When considering the opinion of any current or former Wizards of the Coast employee, I keep in mind the difference between working at WotC as a new-hire R&D guy cranking out his assigned module units of book content and working at WotC as a Creative Director or Brand Development Manager who participated in cross-funtional team meetings and business planning. And, in the case of former WotC Brand Managers in particular, I keep in mind whether their post-WotC business endeavors have been seen as works of quality and success and if they are people you can trust to behave ethically, vs. those whose grand ideas haven't met with much success in the marketplace once they were not propped up by WotC's budget/marketing team/staff of hundreds.

An employee may very well believe with all his heart the things he hears and repeats (or chooses not to repeat) but honestly, at the end of the day, the big shots at Wizards and Hasbro are not sharing the ins and outs of the business with low level new-hires in R&D. IMO, if he "hears things around the office" it IS water cooler talk.

 

[mearls]

the big shots at Wizards and Hasbro are not sharing the ins and outs of the business with low level new-hires in R&D.

Yes, actually, they are. Each week in our department meeting, the brand team gives us an overview of the last week of sales. We also hear monthly overviews of how other parts of the company are doing.

Also, as a developer I don't "crank out my assigned module units." I'm not assigned module units. I'm a developer, not a designer.

 

[Nikchick]

Yes, actually, they are. Each week in our department meeting, the brand team gives us an overview of the last week of sales. We also hear monthly overviews of how other parts of the company are doing.

Also, as a developer I don't "crank out my assigned module units." I'm not assigned module units. I'm a developer, not a designer.

I was speaking in general terms, dear. No personal offense intended.

 

[Pramas]

Sorry if that was the way it came across, but it isn't what I meant. My comment about Chris formerly working at WotC was only meant to indicate that he knows the corporate culture, and would understand whether or not a statement by somebody working from WotC would be spinning something due to the corporate culture.

No one who works for a company of any size would go into a public forum on their own initiative and start talking about how badly their products are doing in the marketplace. Not if they wanted to keep their job anyway. When WotC folks comment on threads like this, there are three possibilities:

1) They are telling the actual truth.
2) They are telling the truth as they know it.
3) They are lying.

I doubt most of the WotC folks that post here would bother to say anything if they were going to lie. It'd be far safer to just not post anything at all. That leaves options 1 and 2. As with any company reps, you should take what the WotC folks with a grain of salt.

But I didn't pop in here to talk about that, or my qualifications for that matter. I just passed on what anyone involved in the business of the game industry would tell you right now: the hobby is going through a rough period. This is not to say there are not individual success stories, there are, but in general sales across all categories are down. I hear the same thing from every retailer and every distributor I talk to and those are the guys on the ground level selling this stuff.