Thief + to hit crazy?

You left out Hidden Sniper, and about a hundred other options... all of which are equally available to other Strikers. Warlocks have gotten better at roughly the same rate as other Strikers, meaning they are still behind in the damage department compared to other Strikers. This is a basic statement of fact, an optimized Warlock will lose in both the nova and DPR categories against other optimized Strikers. This isn't to say they are bad, they have some good controller-ish effects, good defensive options, etc., but I believe I made it quite clear I was talking about damage.

The DPR King's disagree with you:

King of level 16:
129 DPR Murderous Mind(16th), by langeweile(9@&)
103.6 DPR Bugbear Rogue(16th), by langeweile
100.1 DPR Human Thief(16th), by Langeweile
93.9 DPR Warlock(16th), by IronSky and Landsknecht73 (@&)

So while not the highest, they're higher than rangers, sorcerers, monks, avengers, assassins (ha!), and barbarians @ paragon

King of level 6:
48-54 DPR Human Thief(6th), by Langeweile
43.32 DPR (CA, Ch, Mount) Longtooth Shifter Brutal Rogue (6th) by tl (&)
42.7 DPR(CA,Ch) Hybrid Fighter/Ranger Charge mount(6th), by RX-75
42.4 DPR(CA, Ch) Human Brutal Charging Rogue(6th), by RX-75(&)
42.45 DPR (Ch, Mount) Longtooth Shifter Ranger (6th), by Ravenous187(5@)
41.33 DPR (Ch, Mount) Longtooth Shifter Avenger (6th), by tl(&)
40.2 DPR (Ch, CA) Longtooth Shifter Brutal Rogue (6th), by tl(&)
38.97 DPR (Ch, Mount) Dragonborn Warlock (6th), by tl (&)

Still respectable at Heroic.

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The DPR King's disagree with you:

King of level 16:
129 DPR Murderous Mind(16th), by langeweile(9@&)
103.6 DPR Bugbear Rogue(16th), by langeweile
100.1 DPR Human Thief(16th), by Langeweile
93.9 DPR Warlock(16th), by IronSky and Landsknecht73 (@&)

So while not the highest, they're higher than rangers, sorcerers, monks, avengers, assassins (ha!), and barbarians @ paragon

King of level 6:
48-54 DPR Human Thief(6th), by Langeweile
43.32 DPR (CA, Ch, Mount) Longtooth Shifter Brutal Rogue (6th) by tl (&)
42.7 DPR(CA,Ch) Hybrid Fighter/Ranger Charge mount(6th), by RX-75
42.4 DPR(CA, Ch) Human Brutal Charging Rogue(6th), by RX-75(&)
42.45 DPR (Ch, Mount) Longtooth Shifter Ranger (6th), by Ravenous187(5@)
41.33 DPR (Ch, Mount) Longtooth Shifter Avenger (6th), by tl(&)
40.2 DPR (Ch, CA) Longtooth Shifter Brutal Rogue (6th), by tl(&)
38.97 DPR (Ch, Mount) Dragonborn Warlock (6th), by tl (&)

Still respectable at Heroic.

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Hellfire of Mephistoles was changed, so that build no longer works (and indeed even when it did work the actual post mentions that you have to both take damage and be attacked by the target you attacked to get the number, otherwise the DPR is under 46, which is outdone by late Heroic Rogues/Rangers/Thieves. It has no way of guaranteeing either of those things). DPR kings thread states you can assume anything you want for your DPR calculations, so long as you note the assumptions in your post so people can actually check. Also due to Borg moving and getting his Masters it is, severely, out of date.

There is also a difference between practical and theoretical optimization, I should have specified but I am used to talking about this subject with people who use "optimized" to refer to the former. Theoretically optimized Warlocks include the Heroic one mentioned above, who is only capable of doing that damage on a charge, while mounted, and cannot use anything but Eldritch Strike due to lacking an Implement.

TL;DR: There is a difference between practical and theoretical optimization, the DPR Kings thread is a fun mini-game of the latter (for the most part).
 
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This reminds me of the issue I deal with in my in-person campaign. The hybrid warlock/sorcerer in the party is optimized for accuracy, and it seems that he hits pretty much everything on a roll of 4-5 or better. Other party members need more like a 9-10 to hit most monsters I throw at them. On the other hand, this striker has an AC that is 8 lower than the highest AC in the party (oddly enough, another striker - a monk optimized for defense).

This makes my life difficult as a DM. I don't want all of my PCs to be identical or anything, but differences of 5 in their to-hit bonuses and 8 or 9 in their defenses make it tough to throw monsters at them that aren't swingy. Maybe swingy is fun for most groups. For me, it's just a pain.
 

Essentials is off the charts for to hit for a few classes including the Thief. Your assessment is correct.

+1 from Thief Weapon Talent. This is a culprit here. Fighters used to be the only class with Weapon Talent, but now Thieves get it as well.

Not true. The rogue always had weapon talent with the dagger. All essentials does is allow the rogue to swing a rapier with the same talent. Same accuracy, slightly more damage.

+2 from CA. Getting CA slightly over half of the time when the game was first designed was an average of a little over +1. Getting it every single round is an additional +1.

You can make the case that the right type of pre-essentials rogue build would be getting CA a lot more than half the time. A drow rogue, for example, could pull off CA in two rounds without flanking (first strike with hand crossbow or shuriken, then darkfire another round).

So, the Thief now is easily capable of being an average of +3.5 to hit over the original Rogue and even more over other Strikers. That is a problem for some players and DMs. Hitting often is fine. Hitting 95% of the time against a same level monster? Why exactly are we rolling the dice? Oh yeah, to see if a 1 or a 20 shows up 10% of the time.

That's the thief's schtick, though. The slayer uses a much bigger damage die, has a constant damage bonus that is somewhat comparable to the average sneak attack roll once you figure in stances, has more hit points and is better armored. I don't see the thief as being over-powered.

There are entire combats where rolling the to hit die for a Thief is meaningless.

And of course, with the change to Sneak Attack being every turn instead of every round, people might as well play a party of Thieves and never be challenged.

Remember that the slayer and warlock aren't limited in their damage bonuses every turn, and they can benefit from combat advantage too.


So, if the original Rogue did d6+5+2d6+1 damage with CA 2/3rds of the time with an 80% chance to hit and d6+5+1 damage 1/3rd of the time with a 65% chance to hit for an average DPR of 10.9 (without crits), the Thief now does d6+5+2d6+1 95% of the time or 15.7 DPR (without crits) and he can sometimes do this twice or more per round (and of course, not including other feats to boost the damage more). That's an increase of over 40% more damage and even more with the Sneak Attack change. And people claim that Essentials is balanced.

You haven't proved otherwise. first, the rogue hits 90% of the time, not 95% (+15 vs. 18ac). Second CA is not guaranteed, merely extremely likely. going without CA for one round out of five in a combat seems entirely possible. Third, check out the optimized slayer:

Base +12 attack (+5 str, +3 weapon prof, +1 talent, +2 level, +1 magic) with +1 fullblade at 4th level, hit for d12 + 5 + 3 + 1 + 2 -> 75% chance to do 17.5 damage -> 12.2 DPR, which compares quite well to the ~15 DPR the thief gets if he always have CA.

Now compare that to the old ranger. I'm playing one right now. At first level my DPR was just shy of 11.0 with twin strike. At 4th level it tops 15. And the ranger gets encounter and daily powers.

PS. A +1 Kukri is only +3 to hit. Be glad that your player took that weapon. Not that it matters that much. He misses a same level foe on a 2, but hits on a 3.

You might be confusing weapons. A kukri is a superior weapon that is +3/1d4/HC, so a +1 kukri is indeed +4 to hit.
 

You left out Hidden Sniper, and about a hundred other options... all of which are equally available to other Strikers. Warlocks have gotten better at roughly the same rate as other Strikers, meaning they are still behind in the damage department compared to other Strikers.

I was more trying to show that they are sufficiently accurate, than anything else. In play I haven't seen accuracy to be a problem for the warlock. Damage is a different story, and I'm a little challenged finding good dailies for them. For instance I don't understand why Wizard's have a daily like Wizard's Fury to spam Magic Missile, but Warlocks don't have a version of it for Eldritch Blast, or encounter long damaging stuff like Flaming Sphere. Armor of Agathys is kind of nice, but it's mighty inconvenient to have it as a standard action.

Anyway, the problem is not accuracy, and warlocks *have* gotten quite a bit of material to catch up, d8 curse, extra d6 for Sorcerer-king, Blood Pact of Cania, etc. Even the implement focus and rod expertise in Essentials help them along on that path, so they don't have to resort to spending feats on weapliments, especially considering there are some pretty nice rods.
 

I was more trying to show that they are sufficiently accurate, than anything else. In play I haven't seen accuracy to be a problem for the warlock. Damage is a different story, and I'm a little challenged finding good dailies for them. For instance I don't understand why Wizard's have a daily like Wizard's Fury to spam Magic Missile, but Warlocks don't have a version of it for Eldritch Blast, or encounter long damaging stuff like Flaming Sphere. Armor of Agathys is kind of nice, but it's mighty inconvenient to have it as a standard action.
Armor of Agathys is... standard. Gah. I would've sworn it was a minor action. *goes to pick another level 1 daily*

Anyway, the problem is not accuracy, and warlocks *have* gotten quite a bit of material to catch up, d8 curse, extra d6 for Sorcerer-king, Blood Pact of Cania, etc. Even the implement focus and rod expertise in Essentials help them along on that path, so they don't have to resort to spending feats on weapliments, especially considering there are some pretty nice rods.
My Level 12 Warlock does a pretty good Sorcerer imitation using a Staff of Ruin, Staff Expertise (to avoid triggering OA's) and Called Shot, on top of his 3d8 curse damage (Killing Curse + Mindbite Scorn). I wouldn't say Warlocks are lacking in the damage department, and that is without falling back on stuff like tricking out Hellish Rebuke.
 

I'm not seeing the problem with accuracy or high damage out put.

The shifter dual wielding fighter hybrid multiclassed into avenger in my game often hits on a 2 or a 3. And for 2 rounds when she drops her Oath she basically never misses. Which means she has a solidly consistent damage output. Which means monsters die. In fact she is more than capable of single handedly killing a monster in any given combat where she lays down Rain of Blows, Off Hand Strike and APoint --> Twin Strike. 5 attacks with double d20 rolls = high crit chance. Which means combat ends and the adventure moves along.

With the damage my monsters are nailing the PCs with, they literally NEED to kill those monsters as fast as they can, or they will die instead. Losing initiative can be very deadly. I have several house rules that puts my players' PCs well above the curve: +7 points to distribute amongst characteristics upon character creation; Expertise Feat given free as a Quest Boon; 2 Background Benefits, 1 of which increases HPs to MAX; 1 free Background Story tailor-made Magic Item; 1 Adventure related DM-Made Magic Item; House-Ruled recharge mechanism; House-ruled Drama Card reward system.

And I still use creatures below the PCs level in many combats. And I still push my players right to the brink of defeat at my leisure. Last Saturday the Barbarian was dropped to 0, and began dying with no HSurges left. If it wasn't for the Ranger/Shaman Hybrid who can get 2d6 of surgeless healing 1/encounter, he was in real trouble. When he got back up only 2 bloodied Spitting Drakes and a lvl 7 Eladrin Archer (same level as all the PCs) were left standing, but he wasn't taking any risks. He fled, hiding behind his companions, quivering in the corner in between some giant mushrooms.

I hadn't been picking on him either. That same combat the ranger/shaman hybrid had been reduced to 1 hp, and the ranger/fighter hybrid was also bloodied and out of surges.

A standard rogue or thief that has invested a 20 into DEX is definitely going to have weaknesses. They are going to be light on HPs and 2 of their NADs are going to be weak as well. Rejoice in high accuracy and high damage out put, rejoice in warlords triggering sneak attack a second time out of turn. Now you can take off the gloves and pull no punches.
 

The real trouble with thieves and rogues isn't their damage or hitting power, it's the fact that they wear leathers and have low hitpoints and insist on getting stuck into the middle of combat.

After all, when you're flanking someone, you're halfway toward being flanked yourself.
 

This is what you pay for not investing in constitution/Armor.

13 con and 13 strength along with 20 dexterity is easily achieved by any race. So hide armor is available at level 1. And nothing prevents you from raising constitution a bit so you can get even second skin at epic.

And dealing with a 8 Point difference in defense: aim at the middle. +4/-4 is within the expected variations. But make clear for the rogue, that you will focus fire him down if you have the chance. There is nothing swingy at all. Hits against the rogues are nearly guaranteed, against the monk it is difficult.

It is more swingy if you have a 50% hit chance to hit both of them actually, as the outcome of the attacks are determined by coin flips.

The halfling rogue in my group hits equal level monsters with a 2 and his first feat was lost in the crowd and has 13 constitution... And he is artful dodger and choses some powers for AC bonuses... why? because dying rogues do zero damage while a rogue devoting some feats and powers to defense does only slightly less damage.
 

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