Third Party: If So, Then What?

[Obryn]

But it would be difficult to develop, and you are one of a probably small demographic interested in the final product. Cost/benefit does not look very good for a 4e Arcane Evolved.

In fairness, I don't think we have any clear indication what the demographic for a product like this would be, because we haven't seen it yet. Your cost/benefit equation is completely imaginary, since there are zero actual numbers to base it on. Honestly, the only third-party setting I can name for 4e is Wraith Recon - and that was a pretty clear rush job. (And it was Mongoose.)

When/If Earthdawn 4e comes out, that'll be a much better measuring stick.

Until we see someone produce a high-quality and unique setting, and then actually market it, I don't think we'll have any idea how many potential purchasers are out there. Much like with Cirno's pronouncements about the overlap of 4e fans and Dark Sun fans, you have no evidence that the number of potential purchasers is small.

Also, keep in mind - I'm simply saying what a product would have to be like in order for me to purchase it. It very well might be a flop - again, I don't have any evidence, either. Sadly, we're past the days where companies could rush out any old thing, sell it for a tidy profit, and then work towards better stuff. (And even the companies who produced some good stuff were mostly working on things that I and others didn't really want or need, and really didn't market or publicize it very well at all.) The entry bar is higher, and so is the risk.

-O

 

[BryonD]

In fairness, I don't think we have any clear indication what the demographic for a product like this would be, because we haven't seen it yet. Your cost/benefit equation is completely imaginary, since there are zero actual numbers to base it on.

You are correct.

But I would advise against making any wagers in favor of success.

 

[pawsplay]

In fairness, I don't think we have any clear indication what the demographic for a product like this would be, because we haven't seen it yet. Your cost/benefit equation is completely imaginary, since there are zero actual numbers to base it on.

Speculative, not imaginary.

 

[mudbunny]

In an interesting coincidence, the ever amazing Alexis of Tao of D&D posted the following:

The Tao of D&D: Selling Out

 

[Obryn]

Speculative, not imaginary.

Speculation without a firm foundation from which to speculate is, indeed, imaginary.

You might think comparing generic character crunch to a full-fledged setting is comparing Granny Smith to Golden Delicious, but I think it's comparing Granny Smith to Valencia.

But I would advise against making any wagers in favor of success.

[dude]Well, that's just like, your opinion, man.[/dude]

I, on the other hand, would not. But - I can't stress this enough - it needs to be both made well and marketed well, because the days when neither were necessary are past us now. We're looking at a WotC which is both putting out quality books with wide 4e player-base appeal (as opposed to a narrower setting-based appeal) on a monthly basis; and which is actually continually supporting them. A 3pp would need to make something of similar quality and give people like me a reason to buy.

The marketing is especially important, IMO. If most 4e players on ENWorld - one of the hubs of the 3pp world - have no idea your product exists, you probably need to do things a bit differently.

-O

 

[pawsplay]

Speculation without a firm foundation from which to speculate is, indeed, imaginary.

We've heard several reports that 4e third party products are underselling Pathfinder products for some publishers. We also know 4e, overall, seems to be fairly healthy, if not a complete runaway hit. This should give you pause. Ordinarily, we would expect that the game with more sales would have more customers buying 3PP products.

Given that most PDF sales of anything usually run 300 copies or less, given that Pathfinder products are equalling or outperforming 4e third party stuff, given that under the best circumstances, few original settings "make it"... I think I can say I have the firm basis to say that someone who thinks there is a 4e market waiting to be tapped for original settings is fooling themselves. Now, it might be possible to create the market with the right product, but such breakthroughs are difficult and unpredictable.

If all it takes is a great product, where is Midnight? When did the new Krynn ever look like it was going to take off?

 

[BryonD]

But - I can't stress this enough - it needs to be both made well and marketed well, because the days when neither were necessary are past us now. We're looking at a WotC which is both putting out quality books with wide 4e player-base appeal (as opposed to a narrower setting-based appeal) on a monthly basis; and which is actually continually supporting them. A 3pp would need to make something of similar quality and give people like me a reason to buy.

The marketing is especially important, IMO. If most 4e players on ENWorld - one of the hubs of the 3pp world - have no idea your product exists, you probably need to do things a bit differently.

-O

Of course.
And I'd wager that a company could overcome ALL of that and still probably flop trying to sell 3PP line for 4E.

Again, Keep It Simple and crank out ready to run adventures, as Goodman as shown, can work if the quality is there. But the best quality and best advertised My Little Ponies in the world won't sell well at a lumberjack convention.

 

[ggroy]

Of course.
And I'd wager that a company could overcome ALL of that and still probably flop trying to sell 3PP line for 4E.

For something like an Arcana Unearthed, Arcana Evolved, etc ..., the most I can see it going 4E at this point would be if it was done as a "patronage" type of project.

 

[ggroy]

If all it takes is a great product, where is Midnight? When did the new Krynn ever look like it was going to take off?

Even a setting with a "big name" backing it, can fall flat and not take off at all.

For example, the Castlemourn setting by Ed Greenwood (of the Forgotten Realms fame) hasn't published anything much beyond the campaign setting book and a player's guide several years ago. (There was allegedly a "free rpg day" book which consisted of Castlemourn ported to the Cortex system, which I haven't seen yet).

Going back further in time, there was Gary Gygax's Cyborg Commando which didn't exactly take off either.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyborg_Commando

 

[Sir Robilar]

I'd really like to have a sandbox style adventure/small setting like "Vault of Larin Karr" for 4E.