I don’t recall the page number off the top of my head, but it’s the quote we’ve been discussing that says the player decides what their character thinks, feels, and does. Since a player decides what their character thinks, feels, and does, the outcome of any action taken with the goal of forcing a player’s character to make a specific decision is not uncertain.
Some game actions, such as the effects of certain spells, maneuvers, and actions in combat, explicitly state exceptions to this general principle. Ability checks, as far as I can tell, do not.