What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

[Guest 6801328]

In the not so distant future....

• A blanket of satellites encircles the earth with rotatable solar panels that can be used like a colossal venetian blind to shield the ground from solar radiation, with the (ostensible) purpose of mitigating global warming.
• That didn't work out quite as well as was hoped.
• Many of those who can afford to choose to live in orbit.
• On the positive side, the vast majority of the generated power goes to running server farms, in orbit, that can barely keep up with all the block chain processing that humanity requires.
• Which is a lot of processing, because countless fortunes have been made from mining asteroids. Even the miners, who agree to live on asteroids for one year (not counting transit time) earn trillions (millions in today's dollars). And nobody wants to pay taxes.

I'm imagining a kind of Shadowrun meets Paranoia meets Firefly kind of thing, if written as a collaboration between Neal Stephenson, William Gibson, and Arthur C. Clarke.

• What are the features/factions/conflicts in this world?
• What's happening on the Moon? On Mars? How about the moons of Jupiter and Saturn? (I'm betting on at least one 'estate' on Europa. Which raises the question of whether there is life there...)
• Does all the wealth mean prosperity for all? Or greater disparity than ever?
• What technologies have finally been invented/perfected/adopted? Fusion energy generation? Orbital elevators? Designer babies? Brain-Computer Interfaces? Nanotech Manufacturing?
• What impact do the environment/technology (e.g., cut-resistant textiles and the Very Bad Consequences of bullet holes in a vacuum) have on combat?

 

[Tony Vargas]

In the not so distant future....
[*]A blanket of satellites encircles the earth with rotatable solar panels that can be used like a colossal venetian blind to shield the ground from solar radiation, with the (ostensible) purpose of mitigating global warming.
[*]That didn't work out quite as well as was hoped.

How so? Is the earth's climate still borked? Do they block too much visible light leaving the earth in depressing twilight and not at all good for raising crops, while re-emitting IR so it's still too warm? Are there just not enough of them to do the ostensible job, but, coincidentally, enough to provide the power needed for...

[*]On the positive side, the vast majority of the generated power goes to running server farms, in orbit, that can barely keep up with all the block chain processing that humanity requires.
[*]Which is a lot of processing, because countless fortunes have been made from mining asteroids. Even the miners, who agree to live on asteroids for one year (not counting transit time) earn trillions (millions in today's dollars). And nobody wants to pay taxes.
[/LIST]

[*]Many of those who can afford to choose to live in orbit.

In orbit around the earth? There are a lot of challenges to living in orbit long-term.

I'm imagining a kind of Shadowrun meets Paranoia meets Firefly kind of thing, if written as a collaboration between Neal Stephenson, William Gibson, and Arthur C. Clarke.

Oookay...

What are the features/factions/conflicts in this world?

A 'not so distant' future means many extant conflicts. Billions of highly religious folks, failed states, fascist governments, soulless corporations, nukes pointed at eachother, etc... won't have just disappeared.

What's happening on the Moon? On Mars? How about the moons of Jupiter and Saturn? (I'm betting on at least one 'estate' on Europa. Which raises the question of whether there is life there...)

Frankly, at this point I find the whole development-of-space thing somewhat implausible. Space is really big. Maybe if there's some super-efficient-engine like in the Expanse, so everyone can go around accelerating at 1G all the time - even then the energy being used up to push people & rocks around is insane. If you have that much time & energy to devote to getting minerals, you could mine anything you wanted from deep in the earth's crust - heck, mantle - you might wreck the environment, and blame it on global warming, but what the heck...

Does all the wealth mean prosperity for all? Or greater disparity than ever?

That's what it's almost always meant, throughout history. And, it's definitely a theme in two of your three sources of inspiration. It's funny, though, because, for all the growing disparity, the lot of all but the lowest of the masses does tend to get better, it's just there's always /something/ keeping them desperate & on the edge...

What technologies have finally been invented/perfected/adopted? Fusion energy generation? Orbital elevators? Designer babies? Brain-Computer Interfaces? Nanotech Manufacturing?

With all that computing power, AIs seem inevitable, heck the world may be run by them, overtly or covertly, and they may or may not be engineering things to quietly dispose of the surfeit of inefficient carbon units that created them in some reasonably safe (for the AIs) and humane (literally no reason to be cruel about it) manner. (Maybe keep a few around in a nature preserve on earth?)

I'm skeptical about nanotech. Fusion, oribital elevators, and the other joys of past decades' hard sci-fi & space opera are probably never coming. Brain-computer interfaces? Eh, /maybe/, but humans will probably be an increasingly irrelevant input by the time they're possible. Designer babies? Only moral/ethical implications get in the way of that. They'll either be a matter of course, or they'll be highly illegal - more likely the latter if current generations are still alive and influential (which brings up life-extension... along with other potential disparities, those with the resources to do so may live a very long time, indeed). I could easily picture a split in humanity between the natural set who insist on having babies the old fashioned way and dying of old age when it's 'their time,' and an all-in gengineered homo novus population. Maybe like the MAR Foster's Ler, but probably a lot more sinister.

What impact do the environment/technology (e.g., cut-resistant textiles and the Very Bad Consequences of bullet holes in a vacuum) have on combat?

Funny thing about combat. Technologies tend to go in a back-and-forth race between offense and defense, at any given point, one will have the edge and combat will either be about being able to afford the superior defense and just pounding on eachother (endurance, dependability of equipment, & discipline win out) or all about speed, agility, stealth, and the all-important first strike.
More often than not, BTW, it seems offense is in the lead.

 

[Guest 6801328]

Just to be clear, this isn't meant to be a list of predictions, it's a concept for game setting. I'm looking for ideas...

 

[Sunseeker]

Satellites that can block out the sun you say? And the Earth is not ruled by Vampires?

 

[Tony Vargas]

Just to be clear, this isn't meant to be a list of predictions, it's a concept for game setting. I'm looking for ideas...

Sure. I just feel like near-future stuff needs to feel a bit plausible in a way space opera and the like doesn't, so I limited myself.

Some further thoughts:

One interesting idea you had was that the satellites were ostensibly there to block sunlight to counter climate change, but that it didn't work, and OBtW, they generate lots of power to run massive orbital server farms that the moneyed classes need.

By the same token, perhaps mining is all but outlawed on earth for environmental-protection reasons, so there's fortunes to be made mining asteroids in space. I'd think there'd be no reason not to mine the moon, too, but, maybe, if sunlight is being blocked from the earth, farming has moved to domes on the moon? With the attendant need to protect the lunar environment from mining? Thing is, you have a 2-week solar 'day' on the moon, which can't be good for plants, either, so maybe not. Then there's the Lagrange points. Sci-fi used to make a big deal about building stations there, because they'd be relatively low-energy-cost to reach or travel among, and be comparatively stable (station keeping wouldn't require a lot of energy or reaction mass, either). If you want privileged people living in orbit, stations at the Earth-Moon Lagrange points could be reasonable candidates - they could be large, use spin-gravity and be comparatively safe & comfortable.


Another question you want to think about in a 'not too distant future' is whether anyone alive today is still alive, then. It matters to how much culture may have changed. So if your time-line is w/in the 21st century, many of the core beliefs, societal trends, conflicts and whatnot that are present today might be so, and barely seem changed, then. But, if your timeline goes further, something only gaining steam today could be utterly dominant - or just gone - by then. Environmental concerns, for instance, are a very powerful force, today, but still struggling compared to economic and political ones. Maybe in your future they eclipse those concerns, at least for Earth and terrestrial authorities, while in orbit & the moons & belt, economic issues are paramount, so there's a deep philosophical as well as a have|have-not divide going on.

You could have the tension between idealistic Earthlings and pragmatic Spacers underlying the cyberpunk cynicism and corruption. PCs could be crusaders or mercenaries depending on where they fit into that, or could be seeking a middle path or playing those divisions off against eachother in pursuing their own goals, whether personal or epic in scope...

 

[Guest 6801328]

One interesting idea you had was that the satellites were ostensibly there to block sunlight to counter climate change, but that it didn't work, and OBtW, they generate lots of power to run massive orbital server farms that the moneyed classes need.

By the same token, perhaps mining is all but outlawed on earth for environmental-protection reasons, so there's fortunes to be made mining asteroids in space. I'd think there'd be no reason not to mine the moon, too, but, maybe, if sunlight is being blocked from the earth, farming has moved to domes on the moon?

The reason to mine asteroids is because some of them are basically floating chunks of valuable metals:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-asteroid-mining/

With the attendant need to protect the lunar environment from mining? Thing is, you have a 2-week solar 'day' on the moon, which can't be good for plants, either, so maybe not. Then there's the Lagrange points. Sci-fi used to make a big deal about building stations there, because they'd be relatively low-energy-cost to reach or travel among, and be comparatively stable (station keeping wouldn't require a lot of energy or reaction mass, either). If you want privileged people living in orbit, stations at the Earth-Moon Lagrange points could be reasonable candidates - they could be large, use spin-gravity and be comparatively safe & comfortable.

Oh, that's a good idea. In the way that fantasy worlds have distinctive nations/lands, I'd like to have a variety of locations with distinctive feel and even culture.

Another question you want to think about in a 'not too distant future' is whether anyone alive today is still alive, then. It matters to how much culture may have changed. So if your time-line is w/in the 21st century, many of the core beliefs, societal trends, conflicts and whatnot that are present today might be so, and barely seem changed, then. But, if your timeline goes further, something only gaining steam today could be utterly dominant - or just gone - by then. Environmental concerns, for instance, are a very powerful force, today, but still struggling compared to economic and political ones. Maybe in your future they eclipse those concerns, at least for Earth and terrestrial authorities, while in orbit & the moons & belt, economic issues are paramount, so there's a deep philosophical as well as a have|have-not divide going on.

Clearly a borked Earth should be a major theme, but I'll have to be careful about getting too Kevin Costner about it....

You could have the tension between idealistic Earthlings and pragmatic Spacers underlying the cyberpunk cynicism and corruption. PCs could be crusaders or mercenaries depending on where they fit into that, or could be seeking a middle path or playing those divisions off against eachother in pursuing their own goals, whether personal or epic in scope...

Even among spacers, Miners and...uh..."Farmers"? (servers, not alfalfa) could be a factional split.

Great comments/ideas. Thanks.

 

[Blue]

A blanket of satellites encircles the earth with rotatable solar panels that can be used like a colossal venetian blind to shield the ground from solar radiation, with the (ostensible) purpose of mitigating global warming.

I think the amount of material needed to block an appreciably amount of the sun's radiation caught by the earth, and all of it's supporting infrastructure to hold it rigid, keep in in place even though it's so large that gravity has different pulls on different parts of it, and constantly deal with repairs from micro material impacts at orbital speeds. It would be vastly, hugely, mind boggling big. To quote a more venerable source than myself:

Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space.

-- Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

 

[Shasarak]

I think the amount of material needed to block an appreciably amount of the sun's radiation caught by the earth, and all of it's supporting infrastructure to hold it rigid, keep in in place even though it's so large that gravity has different pulls on different parts of it, and constantly deal with repairs from micro material impacts at orbital speeds. It would be vastly, hugely, mind boggling big. To quote a more venerable source than myself:

-- Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

Dont need much to block the sun, a little bit of water vapour or dust can do that. A Dyson sphere type structure would be a different story though you're right about that.

 

[Guest 6801328]

I think the amount of material needed to block an appreciably amount of the sun's radiation caught by the earth, and all of it's supporting infrastructure to hold it rigid, keep in in place even though it's so large that gravity has different pulls on different parts of it, and constantly deal with repairs from micro material impacts at orbital speeds. It would be vastly, hugely, mind boggling big. To quote a more venerable source than myself:

-- Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

It doesn't have to be a big, rigid, monolithic thing. It could be thousands of satellites (not at the same altitude...). Sort of like a flock of birds. With vast, incredibly thin gossamer wings. And the goal wouldn't be to completely occlude the sun, but to reduce by a small percentage the radiation that reaches the ground.

 

[Sunseeker]

It doesn't have to be a big, rigid, monolithic thing. It could be thousands of satellites (not at the same altitude...). Sort of like a flock of birds. With vast, incredibly thin gossamer wings. And the goal wouldn't be to completely occlude the sun, but to reduce by a small percentage the radiation that reaches the ground.

Enormous solar sails essentially.


We're also talking about an essentially 2D object in space. Sure, there's depth to it, but the depth is irrelevant compared to it's height and width. And there should be absolutely no concern about the gravity of such a structure. Gravity is a function of density and overall mass. A light-weight object with low density (such as a simple skeletal frame to support it and keep it in place while the majority of its body is spread out over a plane) would exert negligible gravity. Even similarly massive space structures like space colonies would exert an immeasurably tiny amount of gravity.


Even if you use a "flock of birds" concept, all of this remains the same.


And [MENTION=6801328]Elfcrusher[/MENTION] none of what I wrote is to disagree with you, but all in support of your statements. The science of space structures is one of my obnoxious hobbies.

In the not so distant future....

• A blanket of satellites encircles the earth with rotatable solar panels that can be used like a colossal venetian blind to shield the ground from solar radiation, with the (ostensible) purpose of mitigating global warming.
• That didn't work out quite as well as was hoped.
• Many of those who can afford to choose to live in orbit.
• On the positive side, the vast majority of the generated power goes to running server farms, in orbit, that can barely keep up with all the block chain processing that humanity requires.
• Which is a lot of processing, because countless fortunes have been made from mining asteroids. Even the miners, who agree to live on asteroids for one year (not counting transit time) earn trillions (millions in today's dollars). And nobody wants to pay taxes.

I'm imagining a kind of Shadowrun meets Paranoia meets Firefly kind of thing, if written as a collaboration between Neal Stephenson, William Gibson, and Arthur C. Clarke.

• What are the features/factions/conflicts in this world?
• What's happening on the Moon? On Mars? How about the moons of Jupiter and Saturn? (I'm betting on at least one 'estate' on Europa. Which raises the question of whether there is life there...)
• Does all the wealth mean prosperity for all? Or greater disparity than ever?
• What technologies have finally been invented/perfected/adopted? Fusion energy generation? Orbital elevators? Designer babies? Brain-Computer Interfaces? Nanotech Manufacturing?
• What impact do the environment/technology (e.g., cut-resistant textiles and the Very Bad Consequences of bullet holes in a vacuum) have on combat?

So some more specific thoughts, in order:
Your main divisions are going to be economic and location. The Moon lacks any real useful resources and is terrible for constructing...well anything.
The moon would likely have underground structures. What exactly is going on there is likely power generation and manufacturing. You import highly toxic elements from the various parts of the solar system and turn the moon into a giant friggen nuclear power plant. Who cares where the waste goes, the moon is devoid of life and unable to support it. Meanwhile you use that ridiculous amount of power to build...everything.

Mars has a perfected system of the "satellite umbrella" that Earth lacks (Earth's was the prototype). Mars requires this device in order to protect its relatively weak atmosphere from solar radiation.

Earth is of course, jelly. But Earth also has the giant space battery in orbit. Mars is Jelly. Phobos/Daemos just isn't cutting it.

Mars is fairly developed and suitably teraformed, though the atmosphere is still weak and without the Mars Solar Umbrella those teraforming efforts would be undone quickly. Mars relies on panels produced on the Moon to expand and repair their Solar Umbrella. There is some push to simply build a dyson sphere around the planet, most people think it's silly. (hint: the leadership says it's silly but they're actually working on it)

Since the Earth Solar Umbrella largely failed, Earth is being strip-mined, conditions are worsening 100 times faster than they were before. Raw materials are strip-mined from the earth, shipped to the Moon for production and refinement and then sold to space-colonists who use the materials to construct more space colonies. People on the Earth see zero benefits. Queue promises that "We'll fix the Earth umbrella!" *spoiler: it doesn't happen!*

The Moons of Saturn and Jupiter are far away and to some extent the "unexplored frontier". Colonization efforts are slow. Getting people out there is hard, we don't have warp drive yet, but we do have cryo-freezing. Teraforming efforts are equally slow. Most colonists still rely on domes, which are of course, produced on the Moon and literally the colony ships sent out there.

The wealthy live in space-colony sized ships that can travel between planets. If they tire of the conditions around Earth, they go to Mars. If they tire of Mars, they can go to the "Ring Worlds". Or simply fly off into the depths of space. These colony ships were made by literally slicing off the prettier parts of Earth and shipping them into space. So yeah, Earth sucks now.

Speaking of mining, dragging asteroids from the Belt back to Earth or Mars is silly. Ceres acts as a base of operations for Belt mining. The Belt is a harsh mistress but apparently full of valuable materials even the Earth lacks. Want to get rich quick? Try your luck on the Belt! The Belt is of course, massive and people tend to go "missing", as do their fortunes, never to be seen again.

As for relative technology levels: Earth has regressed. Mars is progressing slowly, the Ring World colonies have nothing special. The majority of the advanced technology exists on the mobile colonies of the wealthy. From nano-machines to AI and machine-brain interfaces. The further from a physical world you get, the more advanced technology gets. The Moon provides some degree of R&D for these things and the Earth often acts as a testing ground for munitions. Surprise: the Mars Solar Shield acts as a real shield in case the Earth-Sphere gets uppity.

Hmmm...fairly dystopian. But then, that's probably what you would get when you cross Clarke, Firefly and Shadowrun. Corporate overlords, a wasted Earth, a half-baked Mars, and people taking insane risks to get rich...with a dash of hope for something better on the fringes.