What if: The end is nigh!

[Jan van Leyden]

Would billions actually put their last full effort into getting hundreds(?) to [possible] safety? Is that within human nature?

I've heard about some recent scientific projects which came to the conclusion that altruism is a good strategy - even for robots.

Apart from that you're being to pessimistic. Say humankind invests in cloning technology and offers all who devote themselves to rescue projects to have their DNA being transported to the new world, awaiting their second chance.

How's that for motivation?

Apart from this train of thought, not all human beings are affected. 80 year olds won't sweat it, as won't people who are in a daily combat of survival anyway.

 

[Janx]

Getting hundreds to safety is insufficient. You need thousands to have a stable gene pool for the future. I'm thinking tens of thousands. I think turning the majority of the possible output of the planet into the effort for *two and a half decades* could achieve that.

you only need to get their cells off the planet, not the whole person.

Along with the scientists working on rockets, space arcs, terraformers, bubblehousing, the limits on human cloning, stem cells would likely get revoked, and we'd be working on mass storing cells, iron wombs so we can incubate with out mothers (much more efficient to maintaining genetic diversity) Plus, eggs and sperm are smaller than people.


If you can keep the whackos at bay, you can get a lot done.

 

[Theo R Cwithin]

If you can keep the whackos at bay, you can get a lot done.

You do realize it's humans we're talking about here, right?

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

you only need to get their cells off the planet, not the whole person

And we already have a business that collects a lot of that from college students...

Would you fill a cup to save humanity's gene pool?

 

[Dioltach]

What if an asteroid was heading on a collision course to the earth, an asteroid big enough to completely destroy the planet -- no chance of any survivors at all. A BIG asteroid -- too big to stop or deflect. The total annihilation of the world will occur in 2038. 27 years from now.

Well, for one thing, I'd stop setting aside large amounts of money for my pension. I'm supposed to retire in 27 years' time.

 

[Joker]

Your lack of faith in Bruce Willis disappoints me.

 

[Umbran]

you only need to get their cells off the planet, not the whole person.

No, you need the whole person. Heavy lift capacity can be done with brute force and ignorance - today's technology, given sufficient resources, will do the trick. Reliable cloning with iron wombs requires fundamentally new tech that we don't know will work.

If you start the project with the assumption that you'll go with just a few people, and many frozen embryos, and 20 years into it you learn that you can't do an iron womb, you just doomed the human race. That's not an acceptable risk.

Even if you can do the cloning bit, you need a population capable of raising babies that come out of iron wombs, while supporting habitats for those children. So you still need lots and lots of bodies off the planet.

So, clone banks are a nice sideline - they are the afterthought, great to do if you can, to go along with the colonists. But the primary plan should be to get as many living people off the planet as possible.

 

[Janx]

So, clone banks are a nice sideline - they are the afterthought, great to do if you can, to go along with the colonists. But the primary plan should be to get as many living people off the planet as possible.

I guess I spoke too tersely. Obviously, your going to need live humans as you said.

But we am more likely to ship 100 humans + 1 million cells than to ship even 1000 humans to Mars.

implantation of fertilized eggs or iron wombs, same difference. We ship fewer humans, but more cells, so we get our genetic diversity achieved better than just shipping humans.

And I bet there's more likely hood of getting the cell protection/transport module working, and even the iron womb in 27 years than all the stuff it takes to actually get to and colonize mars.

Give the biotech industry free reign, and they may even invent a man who can fly into space and push the asteroid aside.

 

[Theo R Cwithin]

Give the biotech industry free reign, and they may even invent a man who can fly into space and push the asteroid aside.

... And then he'll return and try to enslave the human race.

 

[Umbran]

But we am more likely to ship 100 humans + 1 million cells than to ship even 1000 humans to Mars.

My point is that 100 humans simply isn't enough, even with 1 million cells with them.

The iron womb simply isn't a good choice upon which to base assumptions - that development is bottle-necked by needing to be sure the kids it produces are okay. And for that you're stuck with the generation time of humans - you can't speed that up. Nine months to be born, and then at least decade to grow to the point you're sure enough the kid is normal to bet the species' existence upon the tech. By the time you know if the iron womb will work, it is too late to change the plan that requires it to be there. That's a problem.

implantation of fertilized eggs or iron wombs, same difference.

Go ask a pregnant woman if it's the same. That pregnant woman can't be risked on harder labors to build or maintain the colony in a harsh environment. Especially if you have at most 100 of them, and each one takes 9 months to produce a kid. That's a logistics issue. You need to have enough people so that with many pregnant, you still have enough to do work.

We ship fewer humans, but more cells, so we get our genetic diversity achieved better than just shipping humans.

There's no saying you can't send cells. Certainly, increasing diversity that way is a good idea. But while this is speculative, it isn't sci-fi - you're betting the continuation of the species on this. That means plans based on the most basic, reliable tech you have, not stuff you don't even know how to approach yet.

Send 10,000 people. If you plan for that, sending 1 million cells in addition will be child's play. And I assure you, the more actual people you send, the more cooperation you'll get from the folks left behind.