What if: The end is nigh!

[Scott DeWar]

10,000 people out of 6+ billion. wow. That ia like 1 out of 600 million. Populaation of the US is ~ 300 million, so 1/2 of a person from the USA is going!

 

[Theo R Cwithin]

I'm not sure about the testing cycle is on biotech, either. Could one realistically have a good idea of what would emerge from human engineering, given that the time allotted to develop such tech is only a third or a quarter of a human lifetime?

I'd think time & effort would be better spent on AI and robotics since the iteations are so much faster. Basically, humans would invent the inventors over the first 10 years, and then let the machines figure out how to save humanity. With any luck they won't expect any payback!

 

[Umbran]

10,000 people out of 6+ billion. wow. That ia like 1 out of 600 million.

You're off by several factors of ten, there. It is more like one in every 600,000.

That would translate to about 500 people from the USA (if you distribute them evenly by nation).

Actually, it's a touch worse - the US census bureau estimates the world population to be nearly 7 billion (they say 6.92 billion), and the US population to be 309 million. So that's about 446 US residents.

 

[Scott DeWar]

oops, forgot to carry the ...or forgot to . Never mind. yeah by about 10 LOG3?

 

[Janx]

10,000 people out of 6+ billion. wow. That ia like 1 out of 600 million. Populaation of the US is ~ 300 million, so 1/2 of a person from the USA is going!

When somebody says "you're one in a million", they're unscientifically referencing how unique you are. It usually implies that there's nobody like you.

However, with 7 billion people on the planet, mathematically it means that there are about 7 thousand people ready and able to take your place.


Anyway, my core point is, ship cells, and enough humans to do the stuff needed, and you can avoid the "too small of a gene pool" problem. Nobody breeds with each other until population size=x. Until then, everybody makes babies from the frozen stock. Thus avoiding limited combination issues. I'm sure a geneticist could work out some sort of breeding plan based on how many women are on the colony, and what avoids in-breeding.

Culturally, this could be a shock, but given the planet just blew up, and in some cultures, women breed with whomever they are ordered to, I'm sure a polite explanation and an insemination tube will take care of the matter.

On the iron womb thing, that's just an idea. It would make it an easy way to restore animal stocks (and they DO have a faster cycle time). Right now, I don't think there's much research on this technology (at least none getting any press), as it ranks up there with stem cell research on touchy subject.

I'm giving biotech some credit, because in the last 20 years, they've made huge strides and there ARE things they could do that could help us survive. It's not like NASA is going to carry the whole weight. Consider in the 90's, the human genome project was going to take forever to do 1 man's DNA.

Now I hear there's multiple people done, and they're identifying what's what in useful ways. I can have my new dog's DNA scanned and identified for what breeds she is for about $160. We can reliably DNA modify animals and plants for traits. Barring folks who are scared of such stuff, when you talk about stuffing 10,000 people into rockets to Mars, it's ALL scary, and it's ALL hoping for the best.

 

[Scott DeWar]

So, Hypotheticly, lets say a trip to mars is necessary.

How would it be done?

what kind of craft design would be needed? what kind of drive is most plausible?

How long would it take with present technology?

example of craft tyoe might be something like a space station type craft with gold foil X and Gamma shielding and two attached space shuttle like craft for landing purposes, as they would be a one way trip down. the space lab woul have to have storage for the trp, propoltion, manuvering, telematry... ,... ... what else?

Also, what would become of the moon?

 

[Bullgrit]

And on the other side of the coin, (relative to Scott DeWar's), what would continue as normal on Earth during the final many years? What would change other than a push for off-world colonization?

Bullgrit

 

[Umbran]

How would it be done?

what kind of craft design would be needed? what kind of drive is most plausible?

Exactly how you do it depends on what you're taking, and how much of it. What kind of ships you need to move 100 people and a million cells may be different than what you use to move 10,000 people.

The absolutely most plausible drive would be what we use today - chemical rockets. Lots of them. Big ones.

The next most plausible is a plasma drive, which NASA already has in development. These use electricity to ionize a gas (hydrogen or helium, in most versions), and accelerate it out as a rocket.

Everything else I'd call theoretical.

How long would it take with present technology?

The travel time depends on when you go - both planets are moving, so when you leave matters. For chemical rockets, there's an absolute cheapest way to get to Mars, for which there's a launch window every 25 months. You put your rocket into a "transfer orbit" to Mars, and it takes you about 214 days to get there.

If you have effective plasma rockets, which may be able to put you under constant boost (which chemical rockets can't reasonably do), then the math gets a little complicated, and how long it takes depends on the details. Less than 219 days. One plan for VASIMIR plasma rockets would get you there in about 40 days.

"Gold foil and gamma shielding"? No. You use water (ice, frozen in tanks around your crew capsules, very probably) as your shielding. You'll need to take it along with you anyway, and it absorbs radiation pretty darned well, so you might as well make it work double-duty.

Your ship is probably a long stick, with an engine on the end, and pods of cargo and living quarters bolted on along the stick.

Humans drop down to the surface like they did for the Moon - on top of a retro-rocket. Mars' atmosphere is too thin to use wings for effective breaking and a drop from orbit, so no "shuttle like craft". Non-fragile cargo might get rougher treatment.

Also, what would become of the moon?

As I mentioned upthread, literally destroying the planet is not going to happen from a standard asteroid impact. The surface of the Earth may be uninhabitable for the foreseeable future, but the planet is still there.

So, the Moon is still there, orbiting a dead world.

Now, if you're lucky, and the Earth isn't really too screwed up, you might choose to lift to the Moon instead of Mars, in the hopes of coming back in a little while. It is a *lot* cheaper to go to the Moon - you don't need nearly so much fuel, you need less shielding on the trip, because you're still covered by Earth's magnetic field, and so on.

But, there are also drawbacks to the Moon. For example, the lighter gravity may pose major developmental problems for children (Mars might have the same issue, but to a lesser degree). And best guesses are that Mars is more rich in metals than the Moon, so getting resources may be easier. Also, even though it is thin, Mars has at least some atmosphere, which gives a few advantages as well.

 

[RangerWickett]

I figure you'd send lots of ships. Launch the first one 2 years from now, and another every few months. The goal is to transfer as much materiel as possible to set up a base with a few people, so that you don't have thousands of colonists tripping over themselves and killing everyone when they land en masse.

Now, this is assuming planet earth is doomed, but not the whole solar system. I'm still interested in the question of how we'd react if there absolutely was no hope. A black hole is drifting our way and it will consume the whole solar system. Or hell, the center of the galaxy has exploded, and so we don't even have the option of high-tailing it to Alpha Centauri.

S*** is gonna end. We have no chance to survive. Make our time. Ha ha ha.

What would people do?

 

[Scott DeWar]

Perhaps more can be saved with a 2 prong launch. build like crazy for the first wave, second wave goes to the moon for the next launch window, sending severl thousand at a time. long ships return for next wave. gets pods attached from moon base and travels out of orbit to mars again. You Might be able to save 100,000people or mmore this way, if the resources get reused properly. therre would have to be a mas materials exodus to the moon for some time until the very end.