D&D 2E What PF2E means for D&D5E

[Shasarak]

Oh, I think he might. For those not heavily invested into PF and favor WotC far more...it would be Hilarious...and ironic.

You have all these individuals that hated 4e and thought Pathfinder was their saving grace in preserving 3.X in gaming.

Then, Pathfinder becomes 4e.

You don't see the hilarity in that?

That is not dead which can eternal lie.

 

[Zardnaar]

We're gonna take a look probably buy the core book. I miss a few things from 3.5 such as microfeats and dirt/ref/will saves

 

[Flexor the Mighty!]

Something in between 3.5/PF and 5e is just what I'm looking for so we will see.

 

[Jester David]

D&D isn't the market leader. It IS the market.

D&D is the best selling RPG. And the second best. Really... it's the top three RPGs all at once.
Seriously. There's Homebrew D&D at #1, Forgotten Realms D&D at #2, and Critical Role D&D. You may think I'm joking about that last one, but the Tal'Dorei Campaign Setting book is doing super well, outselling Starfinder, which was a huge hit for Paizo.

Pathfinder is no threat to D&D. It might draw a few fans away, but D&D has such a massive lock on the market and such a constant stream of new fans, every single player who left P1E for 5e could return to Pathfinder AND bring a friend, and 5e would still dominate the market.

 

[CleverNickName]

I don't think it means anything at all for D&D in particular. But I think it shows us all just how healthy the hobby as a whole has become in the last decade.

Pathfinder's success in 2008 can be attributed to a lot of different factors that were each fairly small, but together created a "perfect storm" that gave Paizo a large portion of the industry market. One, it's a great product that most of us were already familiar with and were eager to get more of. But there was a lot more going on and not all of it was good...there was a big kerfuffle over the Open Gaming License and the System Reference Document...Dragon Magazine and Dungeon Magazine were ended...the sale of PDFs were stopped...the 3.5 Edition was taken out of print at the height of its popularity and a dramatically different edition was released in its place...and all in a few months. It was a pretty turbulent year for our hobby.

Ten years later, things are nice and quiet (and profitable). Players and publishers alike are happy. The 5th Edition Player's Handbook is the third-best selling book on Amazon. Critical Role is bringing the hobby (and the brand name) to the mainstream. Starfinder is a success. Paizo and Wizards of the Coast both are enjoying good sales, good market growth, good feedback, and the loyalty of their customers.

May they both continue to do so. Long live tabletop gaming!

 

[Shasarak]

I think it is over stating to say that DnD is the market.

From the Roll20 data it looks like it is however at least 70% of the market.

 

[Zardnaar]

D&D isn't the market leader. It IS the market.

D&D is the best selling RPG. And the second best. Really... it's the top three RPGs all at once.
Seriously. There's Homebrew D&D at #1, Forgotten Realms D&D at #2, and Critical Role D&D. You may think I'm joking about that last one, but the Tal'Dorei Campaign Setting book is doing super well, outselling Starfinder, which was a huge hit for Paizo.

Pathfinder is no threat to D&D. It might draw a few fans away, but D&D has such a massive lock on the market and such a constant stream of new fans, every single player who left P1E for 5e could return to Pathfinder AND bring a friend, and 5e would still dominate the market.

At its height Pathifnder had around 250k sales of the core book perhaps more.

If they all went back to Pathfinder and each took a friend that is potentially half a million sales for Paizo. Since I doubt 5E has sold more than a million copies (otherwise Mearls would be claiming he has outsold 1E or BECMI) that would not be good for 5E if they lost that amount of players (Paizo would be ecstatic).

My predicitons

1. PF2 beats Starfinder
2. PF2 beats 5E on Amazon slaes for a month or 2 perhaps the 1st quartly
3. Paizo release a good intro adventure and AP.
4. PF 1 and 2 combined go up 5-10% on the VTT's.

 

[Jester David]

At its height Pathifnder had around 250k sales of the core book perhaps more.

If they all went back to Pathfinder and each took a friend that is potentially half a million sales for Paizo. Since I doubt 5E has sold more than a million copies (otherwise Mearls would be claiming he has outsold 1E or BECMI) that would not be good for 5E if they lost that amount of players (Paizo would be ecstatic).

With WotC estimating 9 million players. I think it's safe to say that they've sold more than a million PHBs. They're probably nearing 2 million. The reason he's not claiming that is likely the absence of solid sales numbers of those early products.
So half-a-million players would only be 5.5% of the D&D audience.

But, of course not every Pathfinder player swapped to 5e. And that 250k Pathfinder moved took multiple years of continued growth. And, again, my number was a purposefully exaggeration. Quite a lot of people who played PF and now play 5e will not move to PF2. Likely most.
Which is the catch. Generally, the GM who picks the system they want to play. And 5e is a much easier system to run and manage than Pathfinder. And, likely, PF2. Very likely, a lot of PF alumni are not going to swap back. And <100% of PF1 players are not going to switch. Initial sales of PF2 are probably not going to be 250k.

1. PF2 beats Starfinder
2. PF2 beats 5E on Amazon slaes for a month or 2 perhaps the 1st quartly
3. Paizo release a good intro adventure and AP.
4. PF 1 and 2 combined go up 5-10% on the VTT's.

Starfinder's sales numbers on Amazon at its height (i.e. right after release) are below what the 5e PHB is right now, 3 1/2 years after launch. And the sales for SF had a hefty spike followed by a steep drop (which is common for every RPG other than D&D). PF2 will likely only beat D&D on Amazon if D&D is having a bad month.

As for Percentages... D&D has been gaining an average of 4% per quarter. So 5-10% would be a ridiculous spike. But even a 10% spike entirely at the expense of 5e would put D&D where it was in Q4 2016 and Pathfinder back where it was in Q1 2015. Even a 10% jump doesn't allow PF to reclaimed its percentage of the VTT market it had in 2014.

I imagine PF1 will drop from 12% of VTTs slowly to 1% over the next 18 months (if it keeps dropping at its current rate, it'd be at 4% by the time the game releases, but it's percentage will decline faster as people swap). While PF2 *would* go up to 10-15% if not for the continued growth of D&D that likely just causes D&D to appear like it's plateauing while PF has a 0-3% bump.

 

[Zardnaar]

With WotC estimating 9 million players. I think it's safe to say that they've sold more than a million PHBs. They're probably nearing 2 million. The reason he's not claiming that is likely the absence of solid sales numbers of those early products.
So half-a-million players would only be 5.5% of the D&D audience.

But, of course not every Pathfinder player swapped to 5e. And that 250k Pathfinder moved took multiple years of continued growth. And, again, my number was a purposefully exaggeration. Quite a lot of people who played PF and now play 5e will not move to PF2. Likely most.
Which is the catch. Generally, the GM who picks the system they want to play. And 5e is a much easier system to run and manage than Pathfinder. And, likely, PF2. Very likely, a lot of PF alumni are not going to swap back. And <100% of PF1 players are not going to switch. Initial sales of PF2 are probably not going to be 250k.


Starfinder's sales numbers on Amazon at its height (i.e. right after release) are below what the 5e PHB is right now, 3 1/2 years after launch. And the sales for SF had a hefty spike followed by a steep drop (which is common for every RPG other than D&D). PF2 will likely only beat D&D on Amazon if D&D is having a bad month.

As for Percentages... D&D has been gaining an average of 4% per quarter. So 5-10% would be a ridiculous spike. But even a 10% spike entirely at the expense of 5e would put D&D where it was in Q4 2016 and Pathfinder back where it was in Q1 2015. Even a 10% jump doesn't allow PF to reclaimed its percentage of the VTT market it had in 2014.

I imagine PF1 will drop from 12% of VTTs slowly to 1% over the next 18 months (if it keeps dropping at its current rate, it'd be at 4% by the time the game releases, but it's percentage will decline faster as people swap). While PF2 *would* go up to 10-15% if not for the continued growth of D&D that likely just causes D&D to appear like it's plateauing while PF has a 0-3% bump.

We know the size of the RPG market, I don't think it supports 2 million in sales, TSR at its height (adjusted for inflation) is even bigger than the entire RPG market by almost 2-1 and that was the golden age of the 1E PHB+ red box. Obviously they would not have sold all of the PHB and red box in 81-83 but they probably sold a good chunk of that then.

You're also confusing players with buyers, yourself gave 2 million in sales with 9 million players. I think the number is probably closer to 800k-1 million with around the same attach rate. If Paizo can sell half a million books (highly unlikely) I would assume they have a similar player attach rate as D&D has so even with your inflated number that is still 25% of D&D players (I suspect the number is closer to 50%). I suspect Mearls would be shouting from the rooftops if they broke a million sales of the PHB.

A lot of Paizo posters seem to believe their gamers are locked into playing Pathfinder as they love 3.5, I suspect a few of them are shocked they are finding out a few players will go to the hottest thing, in a years time that is gonna be Pathfinder 2. I don't expect they will duplicate a mass desertion as people do not hate 5E like they do 4E.

I'm confidant PF2 will sell a magnitude more copies than Starfinder. D&D PHB sales seem to be slowly falling and you can probably get that position on the Amazon sales chart with a few thousand copies sold, not tens of thousands. Pathfinder II will sell tens of thousands of copies on release (even 20-40k) and I think that will be enough to knock D&D off its perch on Amazon that week/month. I think its mostly about a cash infusion for Paizo and to stop the bleeding and get some gamers back and pick u some new ones. They will get some unknown % of the D&D market to buy it, hell I will and I do not plan on moving over to PF2 (I may play PF2 and 5E IDK).

I'm willing to not buy PF2 on the 1st week or 2 of release, I bet it will beat 5E on release (say within the 1st week or 2). If I am right how about you buy me Pathfinder 2 and post it over to New Zealand. If I am wrong I will buy you the latest 5E AP or splat book (similar in price to current books not premium ones or if WotC release a $100 splat). Hell I will make it any 5E book of your choice up the Amazon book price of PF2? If you live in the USA I will Amazon it to you, if you're in the UK it will b Amazon or Bookdepository.com

Deal?

BTW I assume you are DavidJester on the Paizo forums?

 

[Mistwell]

Honestly, Paizo would have been dumb to base PF 2e on D&D 5e.

While I agree they should not make a new game based on 5e, I do think there is a massive missed opportunity right now with Paizo.

If they published all their existing AP's as 5e conversions, a ton of people would buy them.
If they published all their existing "new" classes as 5e conversions, a bunch of people would buy them.
If they published all their existing "new" monsters as 5e conversions, a lot of people would buy them.

Bottom line - Paizo is missing out on the opportunity to make a bunch of money, AND gain goodwill with a new segment of the RPG population (which, at this point, is largely unfamiliar with them given the metric crapload of new players who joined with 5e), by not supporting 5e with any of their existing IP.

Now would that be the best use of a small portion of their limited resources? I don't know, but I suspect the answer is yes. I think a crew of 5 people converting stuff to 5e (while the rest continue with PF2) would make more money for the company than the same crew working on, for example, Starfinder going forward. If a lot of 5e fans started buying their 5e support material, some would also try out their 5e-Finder game....I mean PF2.