Mercurius said:
Good point. I did somewhat account for this in that I think it is viable to consider Early Industrial as a realistic equivalent, considering the prevalence of magic in some campaign worlds. But this really depends the world itself and the assumptions built into it by the DM--as you say. Is magic closely guarded by wizardly orders who don't share it with the masses, who thus do not receive any such benefits that you mention? How rare is it? Etc.
And a balancing point: the existence of magic, and fantastical creatures, makes a typical fantasy world far more dangerous than our own world, at least in that it adds potential threats that our world doesn't really have. On the other than, this point is further balanced by the general lack of frequent plagues that have occured in our world, or at least they usually aren't nearly as common in most fantasy histories.
All quite true.
Yes, I like this distinction and thought of it at the end of my long post, which is why I mentioned other factors--such as specific groups. I would imagine that drow would have a very high percentage of leveled individuals, for instance, due to the dangerous nature of their habitat.
I go a step further even than that: Drow are taught arcane casting in school just like we're taught to read and write and count. The only ones who drop these skills later are those who go on to become full-time Clerics.
Yeah, I like this. It is also why I would think more in terms of tiers than levels. If a world has, say, 50 individuals at epic tier (16-20), they can be distributed in any number of ways, and it will always be shifting.
I'm reminded of "cat years." Most people think it is x7, but it really varies within different age ranges.
One last point. A factor that I didn't consider when writing the longer post, but thought of while reading yours, is that "abandoned campaigns" could add an element to the mix. For every campaign that makes it to 15th+ level, there are many--dozens, probably--that never make it past 5th level. This might be the "real-world" corollary to the pyramid/beaker shape. I mean, it isn't unlike the fact that all of us have countless unfinished projects for every one we finish.
Yes, that'd represent part of the drop-off at low levels, along with deaths.
That said, I tend to think more that those adventurers who don't do so well in their early days (their party collapses in the fiction to reflect their players' campaign failing) don't all necessarily retire; some instead find others who wish to keep going, form a new party, and carry on.
I don't think this formula is any more absolute than the original one I came up with, but it does provide another angle and guideline to think this through. Let's say, for instanace, that about 10% of starting campaigns make it to 5th level, and of the PCs, half survive. That means that for every 100 1st level characters in starting campaigns, 95 of them effectively "retire" (corollating with abandoned campaigns) or die before reaching 5th level.
This assumes two things, if I'm reading it right: a) that every adventurer at some point has a player attached, and b) that the character would always retire if-when its player drops off it.
I don't agree with either of these assumptions when it comes to populating my own game world, though I could see the point if trying to populate a common-use setting e.g. Greyhawk or FR by using all the PCs who have adventured there as a baseline.
It doesn't have to be those percentages, but that gives us an idea. If we take the same approach for every tier with an arbitrary one millionish leveled characters, we get:
1 million at 1st tier (1st-4th)
10,000 att 2nd tier (5th-10th)
100+ at 3rd tier (11th-15th)
5 at 4th tier (16th-20th)
Again I think it'd be a lot less steep of a dropoff at higher levels. IME most campaigns, if they're gonna fail, do it fast - usually within the first half-dozen sessions while the PCs are still 1st or 2nd level.
So it might go more like
1 million at 1st tier (1st-4th, with about half of those being 1st and another 1/3 being 2nd)
10,000 at 2nd tier (5th-10th, with not much dropoff per level)
5,000 at 3rd tier (11th-15th, ditto)
3,000 at 4th tier or above (16th level and higher, open-ended; the majority of which are and always were NPCs including mentors, villains, guild masters, master artificers*, and so forth)
* - someone has to make all those magic items, and I'm sure as hell not gonna go all 3e on this and have the PCs doing it!
