This looks interesting. But, don't you have the "best" and "worst" modifier backwards? Shouldn't the worst Hider modifier be used against the e best Spotter mod?
Just one guy not doing his job can get you caught, and that one eagle-eyed dude in the group would do the catching.
The Best Hider is offset by the Armor Class Penalty, allowing for the Thief to know where to set his specific party members to best effect... but the clanky of armor screws with your checks. Using the 'worst' spotter as the determining factor allows for a better effect as a single spotter relies on his sole check, while multiple 1st level watchmen usually will get a BETTER roll if they are together. Same goes for any watchmen really... But if you wish to mess around with the numbers...
Here's my basic presentation. I will be uploading the Excel sheet in short order.
Determining the Functionality of a Hide/Spot System as Outlined by my initial post:
Wanted to run the scenarios for a few levels, using the ‘loudest’ possible members of the party (sword and board full plate) using a 0(fail)/+1(pass) for the Hide Aid Anothers, and a -1/+1 AA check. These numbers do not take into account ranges for the various types, but I have supplied the sheet with a Range factored as a Spot Penalty (insert the current range in 10’ increments as a positive number in the spot marked Ranged @ W3 and you can factor it yourself. I just did the reads for a group of 1st level adventures with a 16 Dex on the Rogue (a point over Elite Array and fairly common, full ranks), and 6th level. You may do your own factoring for various Hide checks.
Factoring 0/+1:
+7 Check, -8 ACP, +0 Spot Check, Randomized Watchers (1-3), 10’ range.
269 0.373611111
277 0.384722222
289 0.401388889
282 0.391666667
300 0.416666667
270 0.375
291 0.404166667
39.24% pass rate with checks with 1978 Success/5040 Rolls.
+12 Check, -8 ACP, +0 Spot Check, Randomized Watchers, 10’ range.
426 0.591666667
427 0.593055556
444 0.616666667
450 0.625
432 0.6
430 0.597222222
422 0.586111111
60.14% pass rate with 3031 Success/ 5040 Rolls.
Factoring -1/+1:
+7 Check, -8 ACP, +0 Spot Check, Randomized Watchers (1-3), 10’ range.
213 0.295833333
237 0.329166667
233 0.323611111
249 0.345833333
251 0.348611111
226 0.313888889
253 0.351388889
32.98% pass rate with 1662 success /5040 rolls.
+12 Check, -8 ACP, +0 Spot Check, Randomized Watchers, 10’ range.
390 0.541666667
401 0.556944444
390 0.541666667
374 0.519444444
387 0.5375
393 0.545833333
379 0.526388889
53.85% pass rate with 2714 success/5040 rolls.
As you can see, over 10080 rolls to compare the two aid types, the difference between 0/1 and -1/1 seems to be around 7% in favor of the 0/1 approach when using completely randomized spotters. If the party is full of 'naked' Rogues against a Spotless group of guards at 6th level they have an 83 (-1/1) to 90 (0/1) percent chance of sneaking through the ranks.
I have provided 4 separate sheets on the listing… The first 2 demonstrate the -1/1 system, while the last demonstrate 0/1. I have provided you with the ability on the 2nd and 3rd sheet to even screw around with the number of extra Spotters to see what I'm discussing.
I feel that these allow for sufficient confirmations of rolls and how they will function across the spectrum. Give it a whirl, follow the directions listed here, do your own determination by observing the sums and using the variable entries to the far right across the top of the chart.
After breaking it down a bit took a hell of a lot LESS than 24 hours

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Slainte,
-Loonook.
EDIT: I just updated the chart... Updated the chart so as to give options to put in individual party members and their modifiers under the Party Aid section AA1-AD1 are where you put your current Hide modifiers, and AA3-AD3 are binary slots. Put a 1 to determine a 'present' member, 0 for an 'absent'. This allows for you to actually see how 720 rolls will make the system work. I've tested it across and the system seems quite precise and not as 'swingy' as normal math, and actually allows an entire party to have a chance to sneak through an area together. The system seems pretty flexible from what I can observe, and actually works pretty well across the twelve creatures I have tried it out with, in various combinations. But play around with it for a test drive... I have given you a whole toolkit as a proof

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