Which 3rd party publishers will survive?

I think there are actually 5 questions:

How many 3rd party publishers will embrace 4e and begin publishing 43 exclusively?
How many 3rd party publishers will produce only 3.x products?
How many 3rd party publishers will only produce OGL products (True20, C&C)
How many 3rd party publishers will not produce any OGL or 4e products and stick to their own systems (SW, Runequest, traveller, WFRP, etc)
How many will do a smattering of some or all?

The next question.... who will fall under what categories?
 

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Howndawg said:
Mongoose will survive.

That may not meet Gundark's definition of "survive" since he's suggesting that Privateer Press won't. There is no way that PP is going out of business with their miniature game successes.

It's just not clear whether publishing any RPGs counts as surviving, or sticking with 3.5 meets his definition.
 

Lat time around many 3rd party publishers went ahead and made complete race and class books. The same as WoTC, incidentally. This time it seems Wizards will launch lots of adventure modules. I wonder if the 3rd parties will do the same or if they will be able to find something to do in 4ed that doesn't overlap Wizards completely. And what would that be?
 

Aus_Snow said:
I wonder what'll happen with Necro.


Of all the ones I like they are the ones I wonder about most. They indicated they would stick around for 4E, but I do get the feeling they are losing the enthusiasm.

I believe Goodman, Green Ronin, Paizo, and XRP will still be here. Plus the PDF guys, like Mark, The Le, Dragonwing, etc...
 

Glyfair said:
That may not meet Gundark's definition of "survive" since he's suggesting that Privateer Press won't. There is no way that PP is going out of business with their miniature game successes.

It's just not clear whether publishing any RPGs counts as surviving, or sticking with 3.5 meets his definition.

Thanks for pointing that out. My definetion of survival was publishing d20 books. Privateer Press is doing quite well with their miniature games. However I fear we won't be seeing any new Iron Kingdoms rpg books ever (or at least for a long time). I think they are turning into Games Workshop.

Also yeah Malhavoc worries me a bit. Arcana Unearth was designed to be a variant players hanbook. 4th ed is now technically a variant. The same goes for Iron Heroes, with Mike Mearls leading a lot of the design of 4th ed I wonder how many they'll steal back into the fold.
 



teitan said:
I think we'll see another small boom in D20 publishers when 4e is released, people trying to fill niche products etc. that WotC won't get to for awhile.
I think so too. WotC's greatest threat right now is: every d20 publisher can effectively beat them to the punch for the entire library of successful books ever published for 3E.

While Wizards hold the early advantage by determining when 4E releases, their 2 year turn around time puts them at a horrible disadvantage in terms of republishing all their 3E books in 4E form before anyone else does.
 


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