Tony Vargas
Legend
We can only speculate.IAnd it makes me wonder just who, exactly, is WotC targeting with D&D Next?
The prime targets, IMHO, are:
the 3.5/Pathfinder hold-outs who rejected 4e,
and
Guys in their theoretical 'peak earning years' who started with AD&D back in the 80s. (which, technically, includes me).
Of course, when you cast the net for AD&D fans, you'll likely get 2e fans, as well.
Not so much in the scope:
older fans of 0D&D or BECMI who started in the 70s
and
current fans of 4e (wich also technically includes me).
My rationales are fairly simple. The whole reason for the 'failure' (failure to reach unrealistic revenue goals for Hasbro, that is) must seem to be the success of Pathfinder. Now, every time D&D has rolled rev, there have been holdouts who wouldn't adopt the new ed. But, they never really mattered (much) before, because they'd come around for lack of any new shiny products for their old ed. Eventually something new would catch their eye and suck them in. 3e changed all that because it was open source, so when the time came (a bit early) to switch from 3.5 to 4e, the holdouts got Pathfinder and a steady stream of their own new stuff, so held out indefinitely. Since Pathfinder isn't going anywhere, that means WotC /must/ cater to 3.5 holdouts most slavishly if they are to have any hope of getting them.
The old AD&Ders in their peak earning years are obviously a desireable demographic, and they're at that stage in life when you get all notalgic and spend lots of cash on stuff that reminds of you of the old days. Apealing to them is marketing 101 no-brainer.
The even older 0D&D fans, OTOH, are past that and may not even be paying attention.
Finally, the 4e fans are, by definition, those who have a history of adopting the latest edtion, so WotC should be able to count on a fair proportion just ambling along to 5e, no questions asked. Any remaining hold-outs can be counted upon to give in eventually, since 4e is very much /not/ open-source, and there will be no 3pp material coming down the line for them the way it did for the 3.5 holdouts. Those 4e fans WotC fails to recapture will likely move on to other games entirely.
tl;dr: Next/5e is likely targetting AD&D fans because some of them might have money and nostalgia cravings, and 3.5 fans because the OGL has made it impossible to 'starve them out.'
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