Who Wants to Live Forever

El Mahdi

Muad'Dib of the Anauroch
Cue Queen...

Who wants to live forever? Much longer life spans? - Yahoo News


If Aubrey de Grey's predictions are right, the first person who will live to see their 150th birthday has already been born. And the first person to live for 1,000 years could be less than 20 years younger.

A biomedical gerontologist and chief scientist of a foundation dedicated to longevity research, de Grey reckons that within his own lifetime doctors could have all the tools they need to "cure" aging -- banishing diseases that come with it and extending life indefinitely.

"I'd say we have a 50/50 chance of bringing aging under what I'd call a decisive level of medical control within the next 25 years or so," de Grey said in an interview before delivering a lecture at Britain's Royal Institution academy of science.

"And what I mean by decisive is the same sort of medical control that we have over most infectious diseases today."

De Grey sees a time when people will go to their doctors for regular "maintenance," which by then will include gene therapies, stem cell therapies, immune stimulation and a range of other advanced medical techniques to keep them in good shape.
 

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Yahoo News isn't what I'd call a bastion of excellence in science reporting. It is an evocative thought, sure, but one person saying "the end of death is near" is not exactly something to pin hopes upon.
 



*If* this is true, I foresee huge social problems besides the obvious overpopulation risks. Aging population is already a big problem in many parts of the world: here in the Netherlands, for example, early retirement has been virtually abolished, and the legal retirement age will be raised from 65 to 67 over the coming years.

Will people be willing to keep working for centuries? Or will the working population be willing to keep paying for an almost immortal and ever-increasing group of retirees, who might also require constant healthcare? Will the increasing number of retired voters mean a powershift toward a gerontocracy? Will an extended life only be affordable by the very rich?

Or will it go the other way, and will we see something like in Logan's Run? (Personally I imagine that this would involve cities full of young people partying, with a wilderness full of grumpy old men and women. And they wouldn't need lifeclocks. To quote Mike Gayle, "Thirty means only going to the pub if there’s somewhere to sit down. Thirty means owning at least one classical CD, even if it’s NOW That’s What I Call Classical Vol 6."
 


Or will the working population be willing to keep paying for an almost immortal and ever-increasing group of retirees, who might also require constant healthcare?

Unless there's an energy technology breakthrough that makes "wealth" a non-issue, the working population's capacity to support non-working people may be large, but it is finite. However willing they may be, if the non-working population grows too large, the cannot be supported.

Oh man... Darvin will turn over in his grave. He's already almost been banned from mankind's evolution.

We like to think that, but I think it is overstated. Do remember that what most of us consider "modern" healthcare isn't available to large swaths of our species even yet, and that it has only been around for a short period of time. Lots of folks still die before reproducing.
 

Honestly, unless economics change a lot in the near future, even a breakthrough like this won't make a giant impact.

As Umbran notes, healthcare is a long, long way from universally available. Even in nations like the US, lots of people have substandard healthcare -- or none at all. Even with advances in healthcare, I can't see this becoming a standard practice. Insurance companies would *not* want to have to pay for medical therapies allowing folks to have such long lives -- the industry is already gambling that you'll die before something really expensive happens to you!

As such, maybe the really-rich could afford this kind of care... but the majority of people will go to their graves without this kind of treatment unless there is a major change in society. Juvenant treatments from WH40k, anyone?
 

Exactly how far and how fast life expectancy will increase in the future is a subject of some debate, but the trend is clear. An average of three months is being added to life expectancy every year at the moment and experts estimate there could be a million centenarians across the world by 2030.

This reminds me of this comic:
extrapolating.png


I am also reminded of Jonathan Swift's "struldbruggs", from Gulliver's Travels.
 

Three statisticians go deer hunting. All three spot a deer and the first statistician shoots at it, missing to the right. The second statistician also shoots, missing it to the left. The third statistician starts jumping up and down exclaiming "I Hit It!"

:p
 

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