Mercurius
Legend
The Amazon thread inspired a thought I wanted to explore. D&D is, from everything I've heard, thriving in a way that it hasn't since at least the boom era of the early 80s, perhaps even ever. In the past, we've gone through several edition cycles, which follow a pattern something like so: New edition comes out, game thrives, expands, over-extends itself, declines, collapses. Shortish fallow period. New edition comes out, etc...
Not unlike the rise and fall of empires, really, although in this case D&D is reborn from its own ashes. That is the cycle of life, and inevitable. Or is it?
But here's the thing: D&D may be too big to come out with a new edition. New editions are primarily driven by sales (core books) - or the decline and lack thereof, but also by the interest of the designers and what they perceive to be trends within the industry. So as long as D&D thrives, there is really no reason to create a new edition - or rather, any other reason (e.g. "to make the game better" or change things up) just doesn't hold muster to the bottom line.
So "never" is not right, really. What is more accurate is to saythat we just can't predict when there will be a new edition or what it will be like, because we don't know how long D&D will continue to thrive. Maybe this will just be a longer cycle, and so in that sense we might see a new edition in a decade or so.
But let's say they really have accomplished what they hoped to do: Turned D&D into an evergreen game, a perennial classic like Monopoly or Risk - one that abides, with only relatively minor fluctuations. If that is truly the case, a new edition would be disastrous. Why? Because a new edition means re-learning the game and playing a different style of D&D. Now this is something that a lot of diehards like to do. But casual fans generally don't.
Here's an analogy. If you're a hardcore fantasy novel fan, then you probably love the process of starting a new series, entering and learning about a new world, its history and lore, etc. If you are a casual fan, you might like Harry Potter or Tolkien, but you don't want to invest too much time or energy, so chances are if you read a fantasy book you'll go back to something you know and love - a new HP book, something "like Tolkien." You probably won't pick up Malazan Book of the Fallen, and if you do you'll be turned off by the learning curve (sort of like AD&D vs. BECMI, back in the day).
D&D is thriving because it has a ton of casual to moderate fans. In fact, I would argue that all edition cycles see a boom of more casual to moderate fans, then an inevitable contraction as those fans slip away and we're left with the hardcore base. What seems different this time is that contraction hasn't occurred. Yet. But we're four and a half years in and the game is just becoming more popular.
At some point it will max out. But the question, then, is whether or not it stabilizes at a high plateau, or contracts and collapses.
Now if WotC has stumbled upon a formula that will allow for the current status quo to continue in a plateau form, with only minor fluctuations, then they won't do anything more than maybe cosmetic changes and possibly provide more options. But they won't overhaul the system. They won't want to distance those casual/moderate fans that have turned D&D from a fringe hobby to a thriving, mainstream one.
We might see other games, variants on D&D. Not only "scifi D&D" but maybe even something like "advanced D&D." But D&D itself will remain pretty much unchanged. There won't be an overhaul of the rules until after the popularity of the current edition collapses, and we see absolutely no sign of that in the near future. Maybe not for years, and maybe "never" - at least in this late pre-Singularity era
.
Of course we don't know. There are so many factors, unforeseen shifts - cultural, societal, technological changes. I was mostly joking about the "pre-Singularity era," but not totally. A lot of very smart people prognosticate major societal changes, whether through climate change and/or AI, that will utterly transform human existence over the next several decades.
But for the foreseeable future, "The D&D Abides" - and 5e will live on, at least for as long as the game continues. May it be the Last Edition of Dungeons & Dragons?
Not unlike the rise and fall of empires, really, although in this case D&D is reborn from its own ashes. That is the cycle of life, and inevitable. Or is it?
But here's the thing: D&D may be too big to come out with a new edition. New editions are primarily driven by sales (core books) - or the decline and lack thereof, but also by the interest of the designers and what they perceive to be trends within the industry. So as long as D&D thrives, there is really no reason to create a new edition - or rather, any other reason (e.g. "to make the game better" or change things up) just doesn't hold muster to the bottom line.
So "never" is not right, really. What is more accurate is to saythat we just can't predict when there will be a new edition or what it will be like, because we don't know how long D&D will continue to thrive. Maybe this will just be a longer cycle, and so in that sense we might see a new edition in a decade or so.
But let's say they really have accomplished what they hoped to do: Turned D&D into an evergreen game, a perennial classic like Monopoly or Risk - one that abides, with only relatively minor fluctuations. If that is truly the case, a new edition would be disastrous. Why? Because a new edition means re-learning the game and playing a different style of D&D. Now this is something that a lot of diehards like to do. But casual fans generally don't.
Here's an analogy. If you're a hardcore fantasy novel fan, then you probably love the process of starting a new series, entering and learning about a new world, its history and lore, etc. If you are a casual fan, you might like Harry Potter or Tolkien, but you don't want to invest too much time or energy, so chances are if you read a fantasy book you'll go back to something you know and love - a new HP book, something "like Tolkien." You probably won't pick up Malazan Book of the Fallen, and if you do you'll be turned off by the learning curve (sort of like AD&D vs. BECMI, back in the day).
D&D is thriving because it has a ton of casual to moderate fans. In fact, I would argue that all edition cycles see a boom of more casual to moderate fans, then an inevitable contraction as those fans slip away and we're left with the hardcore base. What seems different this time is that contraction hasn't occurred. Yet. But we're four and a half years in and the game is just becoming more popular.
At some point it will max out. But the question, then, is whether or not it stabilizes at a high plateau, or contracts and collapses.
Now if WotC has stumbled upon a formula that will allow for the current status quo to continue in a plateau form, with only minor fluctuations, then they won't do anything more than maybe cosmetic changes and possibly provide more options. But they won't overhaul the system. They won't want to distance those casual/moderate fans that have turned D&D from a fringe hobby to a thriving, mainstream one.
We might see other games, variants on D&D. Not only "scifi D&D" but maybe even something like "advanced D&D." But D&D itself will remain pretty much unchanged. There won't be an overhaul of the rules until after the popularity of the current edition collapses, and we see absolutely no sign of that in the near future. Maybe not for years, and maybe "never" - at least in this late pre-Singularity era
.Of course we don't know. There are so many factors, unforeseen shifts - cultural, societal, technological changes. I was mostly joking about the "pre-Singularity era," but not totally. A lot of very smart people prognosticate major societal changes, whether through climate change and/or AI, that will utterly transform human existence over the next several decades.
But for the foreseeable future, "The D&D Abides" - and 5e will live on, at least for as long as the game continues. May it be the Last Edition of Dungeons & Dragons?
