Why can't WotC break the mass market barrier?

[Grimstaff]

Personally, I think aiming for RPGs, even one as successful as D&D, to be a mass market hit is a Quixotic endeavor.

And yet, we saw with the advent of 3E in 1999-2000, a huge increase in the number of folks purchasing rulebooks. I know alot of folks attribute that to 1E players disenchanted with 2E coming back to the fold, but at least some of that had to be a direct result of the publicity D&D got from releasing the first new edition in 10 years, the hype surrounding the Adkinson/Magic the Gathering success, etc, so obviously simply gaining a presence in the public eye is enough to boost sales astronomically.

 

[JamesM]

I agree with all of that (more importantly, the evidence of the current market bears it out). I especially agree with the last part, though. This is part of why I am a big believer in PDF publishing and the push by WotC for its DI -- these things go a long way toward building a sustainable market that can easily be adjusted to meet shifting economic demands (something that can't be said of the print medium, unfortunately).

That's an interesting take on the DI. It's certainly possible that, rather than gearing up for a big push toward potential fans outside the existing base, 4E is in fact a "circling of the wagons" to protect and shore up that existing base to ensure long-term stability and profitability. I hadn't considered that.

The only problem I have with this theory is that 4E, from what we have seen so far, seems sufficiently different from 3E both mechanically and thematically that it could (and this is far from certain) prove divisive enough to drive away a not insignificant minority of the existing customers. At this juncture, I have no intention of buying 4E, for example, but I'm sure I'm not representative of anything. Still, if the DI is an attempt to provide a "safe harbor" from which D&D can secure its future, I have to wonder why 4E is being designed and marketed as it seems to be.

 

[JamesM]

And yet, we saw with the advent of 3E in 1999-2000, a huge increase in the number of folks purchasing rulebooks. I know alot of folks attribute that to 1E players disenchanted with 2E coming back to the fold, but at least some of that had to be a direct result of the publicity D&D got from releasing the first new edition in 10 years, the hype surrounding the Adkinson/Magic the Gathering success, etc, so obviously simply gaining a presence in the public eye is enough to boost sales astronomically.

There was certainly an increase in the number of customers for D&D after the release of 3E, it's true, but, unless I missed something, the numbers came nowhere close to those in the early 80s. Nor do I recall much mainstream media presence during this time. The hobby world was certainly excited about 3E and there were lots of articles and websites that talked about the resurrection of the venerable game under WotC's tutelage. But, for all that, 3E was still not a mass market success in the way that collectible card games were (and they were fad too FWIW).

It's worth noting too that, even if one grants a huge increase in sales with 3E, those sales were clearly not sustainable over the long term or else v.3.5 would not have been released less than five years later and now 4E less than five years after that.

 

[jdrakeh]

While I certainly don't disagree that D&D was a *fad* at one point, you also can't deny that market exposure through comic book ads and having a cheap, accessible, relatively complete boxed set availble in almost every store a kid or his parents walked into helped the hobby grow immensely.

I think that helped a bit. After the big 'D&D = Satan' commotion of the early 1980s, I doubt that it helped at all. Visibility in retail typically caters to demand, rather than creating it, which is why the high level of visibility that D&D had in retail stores worked in its favor during the height of its popularity and later only worked to help bankrupt TSR.

It is the job of marketing to create demand and, while there is a school of thought that treats retail availability as a form of marketing, situations like TSR's eventual financial loss due to returned stock from retailers illustrate well why this approach is flawed. Marketing, not merely visbility, is the key. I think that WotC understands this whereas TSR fumbled with the concept depending upon who was calling the shots at the time.

That said, what is WotC doing today to expose new players to the game? Or are they just looking for ways to make money off the existing customer base?

I think that they're doing a lot to reach new players. Notably, they've done quite a few different things to tap a similar consumer group thus far largely ignored by tabletop RPG publishers -- the MMORPG fans. This consumer base is composed largely of people who have never once played a tabletop RPG but who share many common interests with the existing consumer base for such products.

I have no idea how well these efforts will fare. In truth, nobody does, because nobody else has tried this before. People can criticize WotC for deviating from the 'tried and true' all they like but the fact is that the 'tried and true' approach has been consitently failing as of late. The answer is not to keep doing this thing that is clearly not working over and over again in vain hopes that the world will suddenly and inexplicably conform to their wishes, but to try something different.

 

[jdrakeh]

That's an interesting take on the DI. It's certainly possible that, rather than gearing up for a big push toward potential fans outside the existing base, 4E is in fact a "circling of the wagons" to protect and shore up that existing base to ensure long-term stability and profitability. I hadn't considered that.

I think that you may have misunderstood me. I think that the DI is reaching out to a new (or, more correctly, different) consumer base. I merely meant that the DI is a different manner of marketing, producing, and supporting the hobby -- one which has obvious benefits over the more traditional printed medium from an economic standpoint.

There is, for example, no issue of back stock when selling PDFs or Print-On-Demand books. Likewise, if the economy suddenly tanks and demand for your product subsequently takes a nosedive, you can adjust the price of your entire product line to increase demand in a few short minutes. You simply can't do that with printed books. Similarly, there is no overhead for shipping PDFs or Print-On-Demand books -- the customer pays for the latter and delivery of PDFs is free (and instantaneous).

I could go on for pages, I imagine. The benefits of POD and PDF distribution are simply huge (and so far, largely unrealized by most publishers). This is where I think that the DI is heading (or, at the very least, this is where it should be heading).

 

[Glyfair]

I too remember finding the stuff in department stores (Bradlees used ot carry some in CT), toy stores (I picked up a bunch of Grenadier mini sets at Child World-later bought out by Kay Bee), etc., but general hobby stores were stil the main place where we found game stuff, but there was hobby store in the local strip mall next to the Bradlees and Stop and Shop that got a lot of traffic.

Indeed, look at where D&D was found in those days.

JCPenneys? Sears? The "big box" stores are driven by the Walmart model, or some tweaking of it now. If it's not very cheap or doesn't draw people into your store, there isn't a place for it. Sears and Penney's don't even have toy sections any more except during Christmas time. D&D has no real place there.

Local general hobby stores? Pretty much driven out of business by the chains like Michaels, etc. Those stores are mostly focused on crafts with a slight bit of diversification. Not really a place for D&D there, either.

Toy stores? Well, you can find D&D in Toys R' Us sometimes. I've seen the basic game there, I think the D&D Clue game, and similar games like Heroscape. However, even the toy stores are barely hanging on now. In fact, Walmart's aggressive pricing has put a few chains either out-of-business or pushed them to the brink. I don't think any of the toy store chains are really healthy now (although Toys R' Us may have recovered).

The retail marketplace has changed in the last 30 years. The smaller, more local stores in this segment are very rare. Those that remain tend to be very focused and don't really explore outside whatever niche they have.

 

[billd91]

I think another factor to consider, at least as far as the mass-market stores carrying D&D and other gaming products, is the huge variety and volume of other crap they carry. Back in the day, you could expect just about any department or toy store to carry the same basic stuff. Now, there's a vast array of toy junk available taking up that space and even Toys R Us isn't a place that can carry all of it. The market is saturated with other toy/entertainment products as it is. Getting RPGs onto the shelf space, no longer being a fad, is going to be a hard sell.

 

[jinnetics]

My Red Box set came from KayBee Toys. My 2E PH came from Toys R Us. My Star Wars minis come from Target. And my kids' Practical Guide to Monsters and Practical Guide to Dragons came from Wal-Mart.
What I had hoped to see in the Practical Guides was major hype for the RPG product. I don't understand its absence.

 

[frankthedm]

No TV ads to really speak of. No D&D toy line, no push for a new D&D cartoon. WotC is not using Hasborg nearly enough.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Its hard to find all 3 Core Rulebooks in a Barnes and Noble

It is? There's a large set of shelves in mine. D&D books outnumber White Wolf stuff, which outnumbers everything else. There's even a good selection of OGL and D20 stuff, and a separate WotC spinner rack. Prior to the death of the print versions of Dragon and Dungeon, those were sold in the store as well.

Back when I lived in LA, every Borders I went to had a good section of RPGs as well.