Why can't WotC break the mass market barrier?

[jdrakeh]

The market for RPG books is a tiny niche that huge, industrialized, corporations have no interest in losing money on. In the early 1980s it was a novelty, something fresh and new. And like past novelties (e.g. hula hoops), the buzz eventually died down. Unless WotC can find some way to make D&D novel again, stores like JC Penny and Toys-R-Us will want no part of it, as it will sell poorly and lose them money, rather than make it.

 

[Hussar]

And, didn't TSR get whacked in a very large way when the large stores started sending back unsold stock? Didn't such a thing actually directly lead to the demise of TSR? Or am I misremembering?

 

[thedungeondelver]

(e.g. hula hoops),

I can still buy these in Toys r Us, JC Penney's, and so on.

Just sayin'.

 

[jdrakeh]

I can still buy these in Toys r Us, JC Penney's, and so on.

Just sayin'.

What I meant was that hula hoops once sparked a huge nationwide craze. Now they're nowhere near as popular (and may even be considered unpopular). The same goes for D&D. If you think that D&D is still the national craze that it was in 1983, you're mistaken.

Economically, the main differences between D&D and hulahoops are that hulahoops are marketed to young kids in general (as opposed to D&D's narrow target consumer group of 30-something singles) and they cost less than a dollar to manufacture.

From the standpoint of basic economics, spending less than a hundred dollars to procure a few dozen hulahoops annually is a pretty sound investment for a toy retailer. Spending a few thousand dollars on a fully-stocked D&D display rack is not.

Also, I'm curious as to when the last time you saw a hulahoop in a JC Penny's store was, as I've had trouble finding any toys in a JC Penny's store for more than a decade (in fact, I can't recall seeing a toy section at a Sears store for several decades, either).

 

[JamesM]

The market for RPG books is a tiny niche that huge, industrialized, corporations have no interest in losing money on. In the early 1980s it was a novelty, something fresh and new. And like past novelties (e.g. hula hoops), the buzz eventually died down. Unless WotC can find some way to make D&D novel again, stores like JC Penny and Toys-R-Us will want no part of it, as it will sell poorly and lose them money, rather than make it.

This is more or less the truth of it. Roleplaying games of any sort, regardless of their relative complexity or how they're packaged/presented, are -- and probably always will be -- an esoteric hobby. RPGs require more time and effort than most people are willing to expend on an entertainment. In this respect, RPGs are a lot like wargames, model railroads, or bridge: fun pastimes that most people simply don't have any interest in.

The late 70s to mid-80s were a period when RPGs were a fad and that boosted sales far beyond what the hobby was likely to be able to sustain in the long run. Personally, I think aiming for RPGs, even one as successful as D&D, to be a mass market hit is a Quixotic endeavor. Far more useful would be aiming for a way to make the existing market for RPGs stable and profitable rather than slowly shrinking and, with that shrinkage, eventually unprofitable.

 

[jdrakeh]

And, didn't TSR get whacked in a very large way when the large stores started sending back unsold stock? Didn't such a thing actually directly lead to the demise of TSR? Or am I misremembering?

That's pretty generalized, though it's an apt summary of the situation as people involved at the time have recounted it via various internet fora. Basically, like hulahoops, D&D went from being a guaranteed bread winner for retailers to being a guaranteed financial blackhole almost overnight. The difference is that D&D is still priced like a luxury item and hulahoops aren't, thus hulahoops are a viable investment for non-specialized retail outlets and D&D is not.

D&D was a fad. A lot of people don't like to hear that, though this is the reality. If it weren't a fad, TSR woulfd still be in business, you'd still be able to buy D&D books at a variety of non-specialized hobby stores, D&D would routinely be advertised on network television, Gary Gygax would be sleeping on big bags of money in a replica of Castle Greyhawk*, etc. Today, D&D is a niche hobby pursuit. Period.

The reality is that nobody will be able to successfully sell D&D on the mass market unless they manage to make it novel again (or, I suppose, if they significantly reduce the sticker price). People trying to hold WotC responsible for this failure are wholly detached from the economic realities of trying to revive a pop culture fad.

*Like Richard Garriot.

 

[Michael_R_Proteau]

I have seen the new Basic Set in Toys 'R Us.

I too remember finding the stuff in department stores (Bradlees used ot carry some in CT), toy stores (I picked up a bunch of Grenadier mini sets at Child World-later bought out by Kay Bee), etc., but general hobby stores were stil the main place where we found game stuff, but there was hobby store in the local strip mall next to the Bradlees and Stop and Shop that got a lot of traffic.

The problem with stores like that carrying products is two fold-one unsold products are returned often stripped (if a book) meaning it is destroyed and loss for the company, so if it does not sell in the outlet it becomes a loss for the company producing it, not the one carrying it, and second-retail philosophy is that unless the prouct is a loss leader, it has to move enough units to pay for the floorspace it occupies, otherwise it is not worth having since a more profditable product can occupy that space. This requires a fast turnover the product. Since RPG books are not self-selling to a general audience, they requoire some kind of display to draw attention to them meaning they cost more to occupy the space in the retail outlet. This makes it harder for them to pay for the space they occupy because the special display likely occupies primo shelf space.

In the end they are too much of a risk for the publisher and the retailer in that environment. If the game sold more units, it might be different, but it becomes a vicious circle-it cannot move more units without exposure to new market outlets. The only way to break the cycle is a major marketing push that draws attention to the product and create a demand so more units move, and that takes major money...or a new product cycle like a new edition.

-M

 

[Grimstaff]

People trying to hold WotC responsible for this failure are wholly detached from the economic realities of trying to revive a pop culture fad.

*Like Richard Garriot.

I don't think its a matter of holding them responsible for some sort of failure as much as wondering if they care, or have a strategy to get new players into the game.

For instance, is 4E solely directed at existing customers, or does WotC have a marketing strategy for bringing more customers to the hobby with it?

While I certainly don't disagree that D&D was a *fad* at one point, you also can't deny that market exposure through comic book ads and having a cheap, accessible, relatively complete boxed set availble in almost every store a kid or his parents walked into helped the hobby grow immensely.

That said, what is WotC doing today to expose new players to the game? Or are they just looking for ways to make money off the existing customer base?

 

[jdrakeh]

This is more or less the truth of it. Roleplaying games of any sort, regardless of their relative complexity or how they're packaged/presented, are -- and probably always will be -- an esoteric hobby. RPGs require more time and effort than most people are willing to expend on an entertainment. In this respect, RPGs are a lot like wargames, model railroads, or bridge: fun pastimes that most people simply don't have any interest in.

The late 70s to mid-80s were a period when RPGs were a fad and that boosted sales far beyond what the hobby was likely to be able to sustain in the long run. Personally, I think aiming for RPGs, even one as successful as D&D, to be a mass market hit is a Quixotic endeavor. Far more useful would be aiming for a way to make the existing market for RPGs stable and profitable rather than slowly shrinking and, with that shrinkage, eventually unprofitable.

I agree with all of that (more importantly, the evidence of the current market bears it out). I especially agree with the last part, though. This is part of why I am a big believer in PDF publishing and the push by WotC for its DI -- these things go a long way toward building a sustainable market that can easily be adjusted to meet shifting economic demands (something that can't be said of the print medium, unfortunately).

I think that Ryan Dancey was a few years off with his predictions, though he was absolutely on target insofar as declaring that the future of tabletop roleplaying is electronic (that said, this isn't an entirely remerkable prediction given that the future of consumerism is clearly electronic). There isn't a unified model of electronic marketing/publishing/distribution yet, though I suspect that we're closing in on one.

 

[JamesM]

That said, what is WotC doing today to expose new players to the game? Or are they just looking for ways to make money off the existing customer base?

I'm pretty sure -- indeed it's one of the few ways to make sense of 4E -- that WotC intends the new edition of the game to bring in new players, both to replace those who don't upgrade and to swell the ranks of the aging gamer population. Precisely how they intend to do this, I have no clue, because, as has been noted several times, roleplaying isn't easily given to mass marketing. Without another fad (which can't be predicted), a powerful media tie-in (which doesn't currently exist), or some other trick up its sleeve, WotC will be left selling 4E to its existing customer base and that's probably not what they're hoping for.

But, as I said, I have no idea how WotC intends to overcome the very real barriers to the growth of D&D's fanbase. 4E could be the simplest, most intuitive rules set ever written and it'll still be the simplest, most intuitive rules set for a very niche hobby game. To get out of the niche market, it needs something more powerful than good, easy to use rules.