Particle_Man
Explorer
Artoomis said:What fate is worse then being left alive, a broken man or woman? That a really, really sacry thought.
Ged got over it.

Artoomis said:What fate is worse then being left alive, a broken man or woman? That a really, really sacry thought.
Endur said:The total probability of losing spellcasting is actually less than 3.6%, as I understand MD.
I read the numbers as being a 3.6% chance of having to take a DC25 will save. Then your theoretical level 20 wizard/sorceror has to make his will save. The wizard/sorceror probably has between +15 and +25 on his saving throw, so anywhere from a 50% chance of failure to 5%, then multiplied by 3.6% so anywhere from a 1.8% to .36% chance of losing spell casting capabilities...
Artoomis said:I think you missed the fact that he assumed a 5% chance of missing the DC 25 save - which was already built into his calculation.
If you assume a 5 to 50 percent chance of missing the save, the result is
.99 * .9 * .2 * .05 = .00891 = 0.9% to .99 * .9 * .2 * .5 = .0891 = 9% of each artifact in the area of effect.
For four artifacts, that's a 3.6% to 36%. Actually I don't think that is correct either, but never mind.
The point is: the odds of losing spell abilities FOREVER is significantly greater than zero and is COMPLETELY out of the caster's hands.
KuKu said:Every person you run in to has a artifact? I think my wizard will stay home instead of adventuring. He is to smart to go out and play in god country.
Nadaka said:Besides RttToEE, how many other published adventures have artifacts that the PC's might end up with? There are thousands that have no artifacts. And I would note that most of the artifacts in the one adventure you mention are intended as traps to doom the party to horrible fates.
Artoomis said:If you assume a 5 to 50 percent chance of missing the save, the result is
.99 * .9 * .2 * .05 = .00891 = 0.9% to .99 * .9 * .2 * .5 = .0891 = 9% of each artifact in the area of effect.
For four artifacts, that's a 3.6% to 36%. Actually I don't think that is correct either, but never mind.
KarinsDad said:First, I wouldn't have an NPC Wizard do this if his chance to fail the Will save was not 5%. There are many boost spells that can get his Will save up.
Second, I would have him cast it as a 17th level caster instead of 20th since it has no spell resistance and hence, there is no reason (except possibly range) to cast it at the higher caster level.
Third, for the 0.9% case, that's 0.9% for one artifact, 1.79% for two (1 - .991^2), 2.68% for three (1 - .991^3), 3.552% for four (1 - .991^4), etc. Not quite the same as multiplying by the number of artifacts.
At that level, he might also have ways (an ability or a spell) to re-roll a failed save. That shoots this to .99 * .9 * .17 * .05 * .05 = .000379%. In this case, each artifact has one chance in 2641 of it adversely affecting him.
If his enemies have artifacts, why would the NPC Wizard not be able to handle that situation? Why should the 20th level NPC Wizard with Int 30 play this stupidly?
Artoomis said:Plus, of course, the following list (previously in this thread) of SIX artifacts is from ONE module level 4-12 shows how common MINOR artifacts really are, typically:
Fragarach, Deck of Many Things, Orb of Oblivion, Orb of Silvery Death, Book of Vile Darkness, Talisman of Pure Good.
Artoomis said:Exactly. The smart move is to either not do this at all or to devote significant personal assets to making this be as low a risk as possible - taking assets away from other, likely better, options.
Why would a wizard do this?