Will 2011 be the last year of Wizards D&D?

[Shawn_Kehoe]

Let us say you send your nephew/niece a copy... I will use my own nephew's story after my gift of the Red Box.

When you get to the internet trying to figure it out, you find the Red Box does not have any easy answers. The main site leads you to a pay site when you click tools. The free section is not present. The large portion of materials do not apply to the actual game. It is an easy choice to toss the thing to the side and use your phone to check out stupid pet tricks on your youtube app which is free. Plus, you get to spend your allowance on the awesome bacon burger. Bonus! You have extra time to surf for lawl cats to impress that one Person.

Well OK ... but I think the same problem would exist with any pen and paper product in that scenario. And RPGs are friendly to the fast food crowd!

 

[NhojGnol]

oops!

 

[catsclaw227]

I haven't gotten past page 6, but it seems there are a few non-software developers with a lot of ideas about how software development works.

Most people in the software development or software integration business, as well as companies that use suites of software services, believe that the first iteration of any new product (or even version of product, like online CB) will have some bugs. Some companies don't even install software unless it is past SP1 (service pack 1), usually issued 6 months after initial release.

I imagine that in 3-6 months, online CB will be running just fine, will be a major boon to new users and, while there might STILL be some corner case bugs, it will be nice and solid, just like offline CB was.

But by then, we'll have a new online MB and VTT that people will rail against and cry out in frustration that WOTС can't do software.

Microsoft hears this; Adobe hears this; Sun hears this; SAS, SAP, you name them... In the business software world, the gaming software world, any software vertical, they all get complaints about new software. They then work to fix the bugs, release patches, and by the first major service pack, most major things are fixed and working.

The fact is that WOTC had spoiled us with the first CB, the compendium and now people expect perfection and that is just plain not possible.

Going to an online service is smart on so many levels, and though not everyone is connected all the time, soon most of us in developed nations will be, either with mobile hotspots, long range wireless, or other technology (that already exists). OK, so maybe you won't be able to edit your character in the Amazon rainforest, but we will be able to do it on the bus or the train, or in the bathroom.

I bet that internally, they have Android and iPhone application layers in the planning stages, so you can use it on your smartphone.

Let's be realistic here... The online CB is new, it has bugs, but it is far more innovative and reaching than PC Gen or whatever other open source software is trying to do. Just think of all the varied data types, exceptions, and content that needs to be managed. Just the DB management is tricky, forget the development of software to perfectly handle it all.

[/software rant]

But, I agree, WOTC hasn't communicated well with their user base. That is their major failing. But wasn't MM3 awesome?

 

[ScottSa]

I'm somewhat shocked that it has taken them this long to start using the boxed set model again and get more product in mainstream stores. (Wal-Marts, Targets, etc.)
I hope they exploit the heck out of the chance.

(checking in to this board after time away, and wondering about this particular point which was mentioned a few times in the thread)

Isn't it true that Red Box was gone from both Walmart and Target by early Dec, and wasn't on sale except at the "regular outlets" (Amazon/B&N etc.) for Christmas? (this is partially anecdotal but backed up by the company webpages; when I checked my local Walmart some time in Nov, there were 2 Red Boxes sitting on the shelf under the Magic cards; when I checked again the first week of Dec, the spot had been refilled with MtG and no D&D was to be seen; I later checked the local Target as well as "site-to-store" on both of their sites, and at that point you couldn't even get the boxes from them online...)

 

[Jeffrey]

Yes. WotC treated you with less sensitivity than you think you deserve.

And before that, they treated their previous generation of customers with "less sensitivity", if not downright disrespect.

And one day soon, Grasshopper, they will treat you the same.

Hasbro/WOTC has earned and deserves all of the ill-will directed at them.

But I agree, let's all keep a measure of proportion about this.

It's just a game.

 

[Riley]

Isn't it true that Red Box was gone from both Walmart and Target by early Dec, and wasn't on sale except at the "regular outlets" (Amazon/B&N etc.) for Christmas?

That's quite disappointing if true, and wouldn't bode well for strong sales to new/lapsed players.

I'm reminded of an bit of old movie dialogue:

Ian: The Boston gig has been cancelled.
David: What?
Ian: Yeah. I wouldn't worry about it though, it's not a big college town.

 

[AbdulAlhazred]

That's quite disappointing if true, and wouldn't bode well for strong sales to new/lapsed players.

I'm reminded of an bit of old movie dialogue:

Well, it is like with any product. You have a lot of tough choices to make. What is demand going to be like? Overestimate and print too many and you're stuck with overstock and lose money. Print too few and you lose sales. Even if you print the right number then there is the vastly complicated question of where in the retail chain do you need them showing up? Is it better to have Target well stocked and the shelves at the local FLGS bare? Who's likely to be buying and where will they go?

Nobody ever gets it exactly right. Even if you do guess correctly stuff happens. Product arrives late, reorders get delayed, stock goes astray, warehouses burn down. Some distributor goes belly up and stuff is locked in some warehouse someplace. You'd be amazed at the number of bizarre and annoying ways that the best inventory control can get botched up.

Making a mass market product is actually the easy part...

 

[Dungeoneer]

The probloem with this low level of access requiring payment for higher features is that it's competing against things like Guild Wars and other free online play games. While the two are different overall experiences, from many sources, it seems that the base for table top RPG is shrinking. Asking people to pay to play... while possible doesn't make me think long term growth is going to be around, especially as the regular online games get mroe and more competitive and unfortunately for D&D, WoW has such a huge head start on them, especially in the fantasy field, that honestly, they will never catch up in my opinion in an online contest (as actually proven once so far with the Eberron online game.)

I don't think it's nearly as cut-and-dried that WoW is D&D's big competition as you think it is. There's an argument to be made that people who are into 'fantasy gaming' use cRPGs and MMOs as a stop-gap for when they can't get their D&D fix, not the other way around.

There are some good video games out there, but they aren't exactly growing on trees. We seem to get one cRPG which is really worth the effort every couple of years, and a Baldur's Gate about once a decade. In between these you get the usual array of shoddy games with dull stories, frustrating gameplay, technical issues or some combination of the three. The only real exception is WoW, which seems to be perennial, but you do have to wait a couple years between expansions.

In most cases I'd rather play D&D. In fact I'd take playing D&D with a world-class DM over playing a really good cRPG in many cases. At the end of the day, WoW is still a pre-scripted game with limited player choice.

The reason WoW or a Neverwinter game win out over D&D is because you're about thirty seconds away from playing WoW at any given moment, but getting a D&D game together takes days of emailing, phone calling, coordinating schedules and rolling characters, not to mention the poor DM who is going to spend untold hours prepping for the game. Anything WotC can do to lower the threshold for jumping into a game of real D&D helps D&D be more competitive with Guild Wars, or whatever.

A robust VTT would overcome a major roadblock for people playing D&D, which is getting a group together. How many people play WoW because they live in a small town without a lot of gamers, or because they don't know anyone who plays D&D? Probably a lot, I would guess. If you give Joe Gamer in Nowheresville, KS the chance to get online and play some Dark Sun with some folks, you might actually get him to log out of WoW for a couple of hours.

I think tabletop RPGs still offer people something they can't get even in the latest and greatest video games. I don't agree that the player base is shrinking or that the interest is not there. I think lowering the threshold for getting people into a game is key to getting a D&D renaissance going.

Now if they could just fix the limited supply of really good DMs... I think WotC needs to invest in biotech and cloning. They day I can select 'Chris Perkins' from a dropdown in the VTT is the day that WoW finally dies.

 

[ScottSa]

Well, it is like with any product. You have a lot of tough choices to make(...)Is it better to have Target well stocked and the shelves at the local FLGS bare? Who's likely to be buying and where will they go?(...)Making a mass market product is actually the easy part...

Yes, but if part of the product strategy was "reaching out to new players", then presumably getting it into Walmart/Target was important, and they would want it to stay there longer than 1-2 months and/or through Xmas.

The immediate conclusions (assuming my observations are actually correct and the product was off the shelves/website by Dec), are either a) they never intended for it to be any less of a "flash-in-the-pan" than their other products (i.e. it was a pure nostalgia/"model-train-hobbyist" buy and the stocking-stuffer aspect somehow wasn't a consideration), or b) they meant for it to be available longer but someone pulled it (either Walmart at the not-worth-the-shelf-space level or Hasbro at the we-know-we'll-make-more-money-if-we-just-sell-100%-MtG-in-that-space level).

 

[AbdulAlhazred]

I seriously doubt it. You don't go to the trouble to produce a product so you can then decide not to bother to sell it. Besides, Hasbro can command the shelf space in the box stores. If they have 10 hot products, they'll get the space for them all and someone else's uncool product of the year will get the boot. If you're Hasbro you don't expand your market share except by pushing other people off the shelf.

It is much more likely the product simply proved to be a better seller than they originally anticipated. Remember, the whole Christmas season was rather better than expected. They may well have set fairly conservative numbers and simply had very tight inventory. Probably not what they wanted, but if it means they sold the whole print run then you can bet that is good for the game.