Will 2011 be the last year of Wizards D&D?

[MerricB]

On the optimistic side: we haven't heard about the regular Christmas Wizards layoffs yet, have we?

I'm in a funny, conflicted place at present. Wizards have done a lot of really solid design and development work in 2010: Essentials is 4e designed by people who now understand the system (like 3.5e was mostly design by people who knew what 3e was about).

New systems are hard. They really, really are.

The Castle Ravenloft boardgame sold out. That is impressive.

Meanwhile, Wizards have been infuriating me with their less-than-stellar handling of DDi. They've made a few statements that are just flat-out wrong. (Yes, we *have* lost a lot of functionality with the new CB, sorry Paulo). And the inaccuracies with the Red Box (mainly thief, but there are others) mean that I really don't feel I can recommend it to new players.

The other part of my apprehension can be understood by looking at the books that Wizards have already put out. At this point, slightly over 2 years since 4e was released, the list of books that cover the core topics is pretty comprehensive.

When we look at what's coming up - after we subtract Dungeon Tiles and Essential books that redo what we have before, the list for 2011 so far is pretty thin:

Player's Option: Heroes of Shadow - March 15 2011
Mordenkainen's Magnificent Emporium - April 19 2011
The Shadowfell: Gloomwrought and Beyond. Box set - May 17 2011
Monster Vault: Threats to the Nentir Vale Box set - June 21 2011
Player's Option Handbook: Champions of the Heroic Tier - July 19 2011
Neverwinter Campaign Guide Forgotten Realms - August 2011

(I may be kind leaving in the Monster Vault and Heroes of Shadow).

Meanwhile, in that time we should (hopefully) get two D&D board games. I'm really looking forward to them. It's good for the D&D brand to be more than just the RPG. But what does this mean for the RPG?

If we're lucky, there are unannounced books in the pipeline.

Cheers!

 

[GreyLord]

Merric, you should look up some of my stuff regarding the problems with marketing that WotC has been having (and which I think many yelled me down upon these boards).

Overall...I think many underestimate the spread of the Red Box. I believe it's less successful than it was originally HOPED to be...but FAR more successful than many here probably think...in fact it may be many times more successful than what some here think...but far from some expectations at Hasbro.

I think it depends on what occurs with the next step after this. If the Red Box gathers a LOT of the old crowd to advance to the next level...aka...try essential or other D&D 4e items, it could lead to a nice little resurgence...

At the same time, it's hard to say. Hopefully things will sell well and WotC will produce a nice little profit with the D&D brand. The boardgame market shows a little promise, and there are products for WotC that are already (at least I understand that there are...no official words from Hasbro or WotC) planned for 2011 AND 2012.

 

[Morrus]

Okay, I hate what's happened to DDI, but I seriously doubt WotC will lose the D&D license, voluntarily or otherwise.

WotC doesn't have a license for D&D. It owns it; it doesn't need a license.

 

[Dice4Hire]

I'm in a funny, conflicted place at present. Wizards have done a lot of really solid design and development work in 2010: Essentials is 4e designed by people who now understand the system (like 3.5e was mostly design by people who knew what 3e was about).

Then please put this in the original post. The OP reads like cynical meets pessimist with a dose of suicidal.

 

[Dausuul]

But the whole reason for the existence of it just shows how utterly incompetent Wizards leadership is when it comes to digital (aside from Magic Online, which I'm sure makes money hand over fist).

Speaking as a software developer, I can think of a whole heap of reasons why they'd want to turn it into a web app, other than piracy concerns. Web apps are far easier to maintain, troubleshoot, and update; you don't have to worry about what bizarre stuff may be running on the client machine, and getting your app to run on a Mac goes from "major project" to "trivial."

Frankly, given how often they need to update it with new content, CB should have been a web app from the beginning.

 

[Zaran]

How can WotC lose the license when they are selling us more, with less staff, for higher profit? Who cares if it most of the product they sell is either digital or targetted at 3.5e players or that it's inferior quality? We will still buy it in hopes that things will improve.

 

[KarinsDad]

Frankly, given how often they need to update it with new content, CB should have been a web app from the beginning.

No, it should be both.

There are a lot of users who have many valid reasons for prefering the offline version.

I'm one of them. I do a lot of my DM work offline while waiting for my daughter at various activities. I'm totally offline at that point.

All of DDI, not just Character Builder, should be both offline and online to meet customer demand and expectations. It shouldn't be an either / or proposition. And, all of DDI should be constantly kept up to date with features to handle new (now Essentials) rules. For example, the Compendium should be able to sort by rarity of items, just like the online Character Builder can (sort of) do. The Monster Builder should have all 4100 creatures in it, not just 2500.

A decision got made at WotC to go online and it was a very costly decision that will probably mean that they have less capital in which to meet customer expectations and to launch even more product. A company lives based on how much quality product they push out the door and how well they satisfy their customers. Only time will tell if the monetary expense of the online only solution will ultimately result in more sales. It seems unlikely at this point, but nobody has a working crystal ball yet.

 

[UnknownAtThisTime]

TTRPGs don't make money. That's a simple fact.

At the risk of sounding like that internet forum guy, can you cite the source here? I am honestly curious what D&D brings to the bottom line of a company, as well as what the goodwill is calculated to be.

Thanks in advance.

 

[Windjammer]

WotC indeed has had some problems. But what's the alternative?

• Give the license to Fantasy Flight Games. D&D 5e will be a board game. It'll look incredible, and will have much better miniatures. But you'll need ten times as many "fiddly bits", and the game will be nigh unplayable until PH2, PH3, and the "revised" DMG are released.

Yes, I can see my response to that in 2011:

"Pleeeez! Give us back WotC! I want to shell out 10 dollars for 3 plastic guys with ridiculous molds, painted in 2-3 colours. I want to shell out 40 dollars for a supplement with a promise of fixed skill challenge DCs, only to find out that these received even less playtesting than the ones in DMG 1. I YEARN for the times when D&D was cheap and playtested!"

 

[TerraDave]

Hi Merric

I have had some threads like this over the last 5 months or so.

You’re have long been one of the Wotcies biggest defenders. And I am the keeper of the “complete” list of 4E products. And here we are.

You don’t really think that they will throw it in. Well maybe you do. What I think you are is disappointed. You old minis website probably helped move $‘000s in pre-painted plastic. Your posts here also certainly helped sales, certainly more then a lot of WotC’s so called marketing.

And now they have muffed it. They were clearly trying to claw back market share, relevance, profitability. It was exciting. But just when sharp execution was needed, they failed.

Still, the potential is there. They can pull it together. Crazier things have happened.

In any case I know how you feel.