Will 2011 be the last year of Wizards D&D?

[abyssaldeath]

Wow. If your car gets a flat tire, do you assume its going to explode?

You mean I'm not suppose to run 500ft away and wait ten minutes to make sure it's safe? Damn it, so much time wasted.

 

[Infiniti2000]

So I don't think its a crazy question to ask what the hell is going on, but I do think you're exaggerating some of your individual points.

But, if people don't exaggerate, how will they be able to claim the sky is falling?

 

[CasvalRemDeikun]

Okay, I hate what's happened to DDI, but I seriously doubt WotC will lose the D&D license, voluntarily or otherwise. They'll keep pushing product, and they'll find ways to make it sell.

There isn't a license to lose, they (and by they I mean Hasbro) own it. They would have to sell it, and I don't think there is a RPG company out there with the capital to afford it. Besides, the likelihood of Hasbro selling off D&D is about as likely as them selling off Transformers or My Little Pony.

 

[Chzbro]

I'm no shrink, but I feel comfortable saying that the kind of negativity we've been seeing on these boards lately can't be healthy. Especially since it has lost all sense of perspective.

You'd think WotC had been out bombing our ancestral villages or kicking random puppies. They are not worse than BP and Al Qaida combined. They make a game, and sometimes their decisions concerning that game don't match our expectations...but despite that the game remains playable (and continues to get better as a whole).

All this angst and crying makes me feel like I'm back in high school and my best friend's girlfriend just broke up with him. Now I have to listen to him moan about how evil and soulless she is while I nod sympathetically and roll my eyes when he's not looking.

Yes. WotC treated you with less sensitivity than you think you deserve. It's not that big a deal. Look around. Most WotC customers didn't even notice. We're continuing to play and enjoy the game even if a few others aren't. You can join us. It's just a game and WotC is just a company--and believe it or not, it's a company that treats its customers a lot better than most other companies do.

Take a deep breath, think about starving children in Ethiopia and war orphans in Darfur, and then try again to convince me that the way WotC mishandled DDI this month is really worth getting bent out of shape over.

You *should* tell them what makes you unhappy, and you *should not* pay for a service that you don't care for. But posting about it incessantly is self-indulgent and smacks a bit of wallowing in your own misery.

(This is not directed at Merric, who is one of my favorite posters on these boards. But these pity-party threads have got to stop. And people have to stop popping in to every discussion just to make sure everyone else knows that they're not going to pay for DDI anymore. We get it. Stop talking about doing it and just do it. If you decide to come back later, we'll still be here and we won't think any less of you.)

 

[Derulbaskul]

Actually, Merric, this is something I have suspected for some time.

TTRPGs don't make money. That's a simple fact. However, we do know that Hasbro loves IP. We've basically come to the end of the 4E life-cycle, with Essentials representing a 3.5E-like attempt to rejuvenate the brand. That makes sense if the goal is to sell the licence to the TTRPG.

D&D also doesn't have anyone with real Hasbro clout running it. The ostensible head is Bill Slavicsek and, while he might be an effective administrator internally in some respects, he really has failed to display leadership externally.

The fact that DDi has become such a disaster product- and publicity-wise without any intervention from a senior level just shows the lack of leadership within the D&D team.

Furthermore, at a time when Paizo is having great success with its PDFs we see WotC still without a digital offering. The withdrawal of WotC's PDFs from the market was a mistake but it also shows that the D&D team has no clout internally. The lawyers told them it had to be done to stop piracy and the bent over and grabbed their ankles. Obviously, it has done nothing to slow or stop the piracy of WotC books but everyone feels better because something was done (and I can imagine the meeting where they all said, "Harrumph!"). But the main point is that there was nobody there with enough clout to thank the lawyers for their advice but then make a commercial decision.

So, inadequate returns plus the absence of an internal champion with any real clout would suggest that the TTRPG licence will be on the auction block sooner or later.

 

[renau1g]

There isn't a license to lose, they (and by they I mean Hasbro) own it. They would have to sell it, and I don't think there is a RPG company out there with the capital to afford it. Besides, the likelihood of Hasbro selling off D&D is about as likely as them selling off Transformers or My Little Pony.

Sadly for us, D&D is nowhere near the size of any of Hasbro's core toy lines. Yes, that includes Nerf, Transformers, and even My Little Pony. I've read a lot of analysis of the company (which is doing extremely well) and there was not a peep about anything RPG related, neither the upcoming Neverwinter Game, the Essentials Launch, etc. Nothing. Therefore it's so small that analysts don't consider it affecting their bottom line.

just saying... and if the price was right...anyone would sell. It's all about how much.

 

[MerricB]

There isn't a license to lose, they (and by they I mean Hasbro) own it. They would have to sell it, and I don't think there is a RPG company out there with the capital to afford it. Besides, the likelihood of Hasbro selling off D&D is about as likely as them selling off Transformers or My Little Pony.

Another option is that they just don't produce it. They sit on it for a while.

(Although an imperfect parallel, consider the Doctor Who show...)

There are things that Wizards have done well this year, but to quite some extent their marketing and planning seem to be in disarray.

 

[CasvalRemDeikun]

Another option is that they just don't produce it. They sit on it for a while.

This is the most likely thing they would do if they weren't satisfied with D&D's performance.

 

[Jack99]

/facepalm

Seriously MerricB? Seriously??? Hyperboles galore and (silly) assumptions?

Maybe you should have asked:
Will 2011 be the last year that MerricB plays D&D?

The rest of us do not mind buying the kickass game they make, no matter a digital initiative or a few hickups here and there in marketing.

 

[fanboy2000]

Another option is that they just don't produce it. They sit on it for a while.

Unlikely.

(Although an imperfect parallel, consider the Doctor Who show...)

A better analogy is Transformers. Transformers have been around for over a quarter of century and have been released in multiple forms. It has fans from the 80s, as well as more recent fans. It also has a panicy fanbase. Every itteration from the originals to Prime has had it's fans and it's detractors. They've also had varying degrees of success.

There are things that Wizards have done well this year, but to quite some extent their marketing and planning seem to be in disarray.

What's happing is this: electronic media is the future of the hobby and Wizards simply doesn't know what to do about that. In the 90s, it was fine: just put up a website with a bunch of free content like and call it a day. In the 2000s you needed a message board. Wizards was also selling pdfs. Heck, they seemed to almost be keeping pace.

But now we've ran into a problem. The internet is the best way to distribute errata, periodical contact, and books. It's perfect for rpgs. It's also incredibly easy to copy and distribute unauthorized copies. Everything you put up on a web server is subject to unauthorized copying. As a result of that, their paralyzed with fear. Wizards keeps running around trying to figure out how to handle it, and rather than simply pick a method and live with it, they keep seesawing.

Consider this: if the Character Builder had been online from the beginning and stayed that way we'd probably 1) have a better CB, and 2) people'd be used to it. People who can't or don't want to use an online CB would have moved on by now. But instead, they decided to switch while the old CB still needed work.

Also consider this: if they had stuck with the old CB, we'd have a better CB right now. Yes, there'd be some unauthorized copying. But it was likely still turing a profit. And, if it was steadily improving (instead of being re-invented) people'd have a positive view of it, regardless of it's problems.

But instead, they decided to switch while things weren't so good and now we're back at square one.

Also, I think another problem is that their marketing is overanalyzed. When I go to buy Trivial Pursuit, I don't really sweat if it's the SuperBrain Edition, or the GreatThinkers Expert Cut. I just buy the one that looks like it has questions I can answer. But we're like "OMG! What's up with the SuperBrain! This is like Genus IV all over agin! It's going to be to hard for the new players! WTF!"

Like your own PR, no one should ever buy their own analysis of Wizards actions.