will 4.0 succeed?

[sckeener]

I haven't read all 5 pages of the thread...mostly because I'm just going to give my personal take...

It'll either change the gaming world or bomb in my area.

Houston has a difficult gaming scene. There are plenty of gamers, but we are spread out over a very large city. If 4e sells well, like as in bringing back the days of it being in Toys-R-Us, then I think it stands a chance of revitalizing the Houston gaming scene.

However, 4e won't sell well at my house or with anyone I know in person. I'll be buying the core books and maybe some of the splat core book additions (PHB2, DMG2, etc)....but the fluff has changed so much that I have no interest in buying the new setting material.

I'm a collector or I was a collector. 4e is such a departure from the old that I view it as starting separate collection. I'm not interested in doing that. I like to build on what has gone before.

Now I may be less interested in 4e, but still planing on getting the system....my wife on the other hand is actively hostile to 4e. She feels betrayed by all the system and fluff changes and has absolutely no interest in switching. She'd like to continue our 3.5 game.

Tossing in my gaming group...I foresee 5 people only buying the core books. None of us have seen anything in Dragon or Dungeon (since it went online) that is worth paying the $. WotC had better online free material before they took back Dragon and Dungeon.

just my 2 cents.

 

[DaveMage]

....my wife on the other hand is actively hostile to 4e. She feels betrayed by all the system and fluff changes and has absolutely no interest in switching.

"Betrayed" is an interesting way to put it.

I wonder how many others feel the same way...

I've been trying to figure out the best way to describe my own negative feelings toward 4E. "Betrayed" doesn't quite fit for me.

"Abandoned" might be a better term. (But even that doesn't *quite* fit.)

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

*Bumps Nose* Ding ding ding ding ding!

My sneeking suspician is that those excited about 4E sight unseen are more excited about the POTENTIAL of what 4E could do rather then what 4E ACTUALLY is. I have a feeling that the "15 minute" day will continue after everyone blows their daily powers in the first combat. I have a feeling that the rules lawyering will continue as will munchkining and certain rules being to clunky and "to much math" and plenty of other complaints about the current edition, just presented in different ways. So really, I don't see how 4E is going to fix any of this.

Well, I don't believe for a moment that munchkining and rules-lawyering are gone. But I don't care about that. I fully believe that the math works better, and is easier to handle when creating NPCs, because everything we've seen so far proved that. In combat, I think there are still subsystems that will require math, but judging from the way the bonus stacks, a lot of the fiddly stuff seems to be gone.

But I agree that the excitement is a lot about the potential. But I also have seen enough to make me believe that a significant of this potential is also realized.

 

[Ahnehnois]

I don't see 4e books outselling 3e.

My impression has been that 3e and 3.5 were successful on many levels, it will be difficult to improve them so much as to make 4e the clear #1 choice. Wheras 2nd edition is (IMO) dead, I think 4e and 3.5 and other things will split the gaming market to some degree.

Personally, I want 4e mechanics with a 3e "feel". I don't need spells for fighters, a new cosmology, or a bunch of new core classes and races. Having struggled through a 3.5 multiclass npc just yesterday, I do want a simpler skill system, less intensive math overall, and various other mistakes of 3.5 fixed. I doubt I'll ever get what I want, thus I'm 3.5-ing it and houseruling away.

 

[dmccoy1693]

but judging from the way the bonus stacks, a lot of the fiddly stuff seems to be gone.

See, I don't see that. I see it being moved from A and being put on B. I foresee high level games being downright unmanageable. If you think chargen is bad now, making a new character for an existing game at 15th level means how many at will powers, per encounter powers and how many daily powers? I foresee casual gamers being swamped at anything beyond 7th level and DMs of epic level games being increadibly bogged down in work trying to take into account all the powers every player has.

 

[taliesin15]

Most gamers realize I think that they just have to continually publish new editions of the hardback core PHB, MM and DMG to make enough money to survive. I'm an old time 1st edition AD&D (also played some regular D&D), didn't much like 2nd edition in the They Sue Regularly days, but really quite liked the 3.0 edition. To me, it seems like that's the best version yet, and 3.5 didn't do very much to improve it, in fact, it made many changes that seemed wrong-headed. And it seems that 4.0 is going down the same path. I haven't heard anything about 4th edition that sounds interesting. Case in point: Gnomes favored class became Bard in 3.5, now I understand that the Gnome is being phased out in favor of the Tiefling, a very weak and ill-thought out humanoid type IMHO.
In any case, depending how one measures success, 4.0 will likely succeed to some extent, though since the paradigm since WoTC came along is Open Source, it hardly matters any more, since any of the d20 systems can be readily adapted by a resourceful DM, and all the core rulebooks from 3.0 on (if there's online versions of the earlier core rulebooks online, I sure don't know about them) are on the internet, players can easily get a hold of any set of rules as a starting point.
Besides, the rule mechanics in better campaigns are really just a prop. Good role-playing by players and interesting scenarios/milieus as designed by the DM will always decide which campaigns are more engaging.

 

[Son_of_Thunder]

Yes, it will be a resounding success. It brought back my gaming group who left the bloat of 3.x.

 

[ShadowDenizen]

Will 4E suceed?
I'm sure it will.

Will it suceed as much as they woudl like it to?
The outcome on that seems more doubtful, in my eyes.

And I think there's a number of reasons for that.

One of the reasons 3E was such a resounding sucess was because there was near-universal opinion that a revision and revamping was needed. With 4E? That disticntion seems less clear.

WotC seems to generate nothing but bad publicity of late, at least to my eyes. (Now, I give huge kudos to the WotC who post here and seem genuinely enthused about their products; the Rouse seems like a great choice as a "frontman" for the line.)

But they can't escape the fact that the DI is (seemingly) in a shambles; not a good sign, given that they touted the DI as a cornersstone of the "4E Experience".

E-Dungeon and E-Dragon have failed to live up their potential thus far; Gleemax (UGH! DO I detest that name!) remains a cluttered, near-unnavigable debacle, and there's still no definitive due date or pricing for the DDI subscriptions.

And the latest Weis/Hickman/WotC blowout? Whatever the truth (and I'm sure it's somewhere in the middle of the two sides), it's definitely struck a blow to WotC.

The continuing use of the OGL. With Paizo/Pathfinder taking off, that's got to eat into Wizards' customer base. Granted, it may be just a drop in the bucket overall, but I'm assuming that those who stick with Patjhfinder/3.5 are not upgarding to 4E, and a lost sale is a lost sale.

 

[Gallo22]

D&D 4 will be a huge success. By this time next year, I say that 95% of existing player base will have switched editions, including almost everyone who has said they will stay with 3.5 or play Pathfinder.

D&D 4 will be a huge success because of two simple reasons:

1) Its just flat out fun to play 4e on both sides of screen.
2) Its EASY to DM 4e games.

They may still tell themselves things like "I don't consider it 'true' D&D," to assuage their conversion guilt, but over time most will find that they just can't go back to the clunkiness of prior editions. D&D 4e will be insidious that way.

Why would I change when I find 3.0/3.5 meets both your two simple reasons as listed abouve? 3.0/3.5 is flat out fun on both sides of the screen for me and EASY to DM for me.

 

[sckeener]

"Betrayed" is an interesting way to put it.

I wonder how many others feel the same way...

I've been trying to figure out the best way to describe my own negative feelings toward 4E. "Betrayed" doesn't quite fit for me.

"Abandoned" might be a better term. (But even that doesn't *quite* fit.)

Abandoned would be a good description for me...probably why I'm sticking to the core books. I don't mind using the new system with my old settings...

However for my wife, she feels like WotC was a custodian for D&D and instead of protecting and adding on to the legacy of D&D, they've wrapped the brand around something different than what was before....

4e D&D might have similar concepts and ideas to previous editions, but it feels like it is all about the money. Using Star Wars I vs IV, it looked like Star Wars; it had familiar people and places, but it felt like it was all for money and lacked the depth of the previous movies.