D&D 3E/3.5 Will 4e last longer than 3e?

[Gundark]

I've been thinking about this one. Now I'm sure that there will be plenty of people who are going to disagree with me (but hey, I gotta throw it out there). I’ve seen some people claim that we’ll see 5e in about 5 years. I'm wondering if WotC is trying to design 4e to be a longer lasting game. Why? Well the pessimist’s argument about new editions (I’ve seen a lot here on this forum) is that economics runs whether WotC puts out a new edition. Assuming that this line of reasoning is the main factor behind a new edition is that they have run out of ideas for books and/or sales are lagging. Well DI makes we wonder if this might be a counter to lagging sales. I’m not trying to suggest that the DI is a pure money grab, however if WotC can get enough people subscribing to it (I’m planning on it) then maybe this might hold up the profit end of things when books don’t sell so well. I mean there were very few books I bought beyond the core 3. Something like the DI and the tools that go along with it is something right up my alley and is something I would pay for.

I don’t know what do you think? Will 4e be longer lasting? Why or why not?

PS. I realize my post doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. My shift is over in a few minutes and I’m rushing to post this so I can go home

 

[DaveMage]

My guess?

4E will last longer than 3e if the DI is successful.

Scott Rouse said early on that there would be no 4.5, and that he expecetd 8-10 years between editions.

If the DI tanks, too many current players stay 3.5 (or move on to other systems), and the minis line dries up, then 4E will die, and there probably won't be a 5E by WotC.

All IMO, of course.

 

[CaptainChaos]

I doubt it. I think the new edition cycle will get shorter and shorter.

 

[delericho]

My gut feeling is no, but I don't really have anything to back that up. I believe WotC think the ideal duration of an edition is 8 years or so, and I expect that's therefore what they're shooting for... but I suspect either rules complexities or commercial needs will shorten that cycle.

 

[WayneLigon]

I think it will be the same, or shorter. I'm not sure they can afford to sustain a 10-year edition length anymore, nor do I think that such a length is all that desirable. I think we're looking at 5-6 years before we see 5E.

 

[ruleslawyer]

It is also possible that between the DI, the popularity of games like WoW and NWN, and the general forward march of technology, D&D as we know it will cease to exist by the time WotC would be ready to release a 5th edition. Back in the early days of cyberspace fiction, my gaming group always used to woolgather about my showing up with a computer chip, saying "hey! So let's run *this* module today!, and handing around VR glasses and goggles...

Not that I think that's the future of 5e, but we may at least see a full-blown electronic product that runs combats in real time (enabling a more complex ruleset without player/DM headaches) and provides "edition updates" in the form of patches etc. I think it'd be fun; for me, the only constants of "playing D&D" are sitting around a table with a bunch of friends, and the basic DM/Storyteller/Referee relationship to the players. I'm just as happy to let a computer play referee, as long as I can play storyteller.

 

[MichaelSomething]

It looks to me that WOTC is designing the 4th edition book printing scheludule to last longer. With a PHP, DMG, MM, and setting every year WOTC will have at least 4 hardcovers to make every year. Also, I think that each power source will have it own's splat book made so that can be another 1 to 4 hardcovers a year. That means that 5 to 8 of the monthly hardcovers are all ready decided.

Also, the DDI may end up making a nice chunk of change for WOTC, lessening the need for another edition.

This business model, unlike the 3rd edition book printing, could go on endlessly. Imagine a Player Handbook 15.

 

[BryonD]

I think it will be the same, or shorter. I'm not sure they can afford to sustain a 10-year edition length anymore, nor do I think that such a length is all that desirable. I think we're looking at 5-6 years before we see 5E.

I agree with this. They may be able to stretch it some with a well played 4.5. But if they don't do 4.5 at all as has been claimed, then it may well be a bit shorter.

 

[Scribble]

My guess?

The new edition will crop up shortly after other companies start printing (and successfully marketing) "Variant Rules based on the 4e rules" in order to "fix" problems people have been noticing.

At that point, even some of the formerly hard core "this edition is the end all be all" gamers are ready to admit their edition has issues that can be tweaked/fixed.

 

[Nonlethal Force]

Back in the early days of cyberspace fiction, my gaming group always used to woolgather about my showing up with a computer chip, saying "hey! So let's run *this* module today!, and handing around VR glasses and goggles...

If this happens, I will convert - so long as the algorithms work and make a non-predictable AI. I don't care what edition it is, I will convert. Until then, I'm honestly happy with 3.x.

Now, back to the original question. The OP really answers the question in the denial of the answer: economics. Add to that they near-exponential difficulty of coming up with fresh ideas as the system grows larger and larger ...

We all know that economics drives the market. but I also think that production rate will also drive the edition change. The faster books are produced, the faster the system swells. The faster the system swells, the faster we'll get a new edition. This in addition to the bigger reason of ecomics are my key factors.