When PF1 launched, 3PPs could draw on a large number of designers who were familiar with the basics of the system because of the years of 3E.
Unfortunately, PF2 destroyed that system familiarity. It also made the back catalogue of those publishers (mostly) worthless, which is always a problem when you're a 3PP for a game system that has big system changes. (The same occurred with the D&D transitions).
So, that left PF2 with a smaller number of 3PPs supporting it. To make things worse, 5E was really successful. PF2 isn't a failure, but there isn't the same potential audience as awaits a 3PP for 5E. Of course, the less crowded space might be appealing, but Paizo is happily pushing out a lot of content (which Wizards was not doing with 5E for most of its run), which competes with 3PP products.
And although we talk about the "OGL fiasco", how well known is that? So many people play D&D and PF2 without reference to the internet. It doesn't take much to get rid of the few PF2 core books available, but will that interest sustain? And will it be enough to support another 3PP?
There may be a bump in 3PP support for PF2, but it has a lot of factors working against it.
Unfortunately, PF2 destroyed that system familiarity. It also made the back catalogue of those publishers (mostly) worthless, which is always a problem when you're a 3PP for a game system that has big system changes. (The same occurred with the D&D transitions).
So, that left PF2 with a smaller number of 3PPs supporting it. To make things worse, 5E was really successful. PF2 isn't a failure, but there isn't the same potential audience as awaits a 3PP for 5E. Of course, the less crowded space might be appealing, but Paizo is happily pushing out a lot of content (which Wizards was not doing with 5E for most of its run), which competes with 3PP products.
And although we talk about the "OGL fiasco", how well known is that? So many people play D&D and PF2 without reference to the internet. It doesn't take much to get rid of the few PF2 core books available, but will that interest sustain? And will it be enough to support another 3PP?
There may be a bump in 3PP support for PF2, but it has a lot of factors working against it.