Will the RPG industry disappear by 2014?

[Akrasia]

... once you factor in every company that produces RPG products (including computer RPGs) it's impossible to sanely deny that the market has grown by at least that much. We're not just discussing D&D but ALL RPGs..

I should have been clearer -- I did not mean to include computer RPGs as part of the "RPG industry." As much as I like Baldur's Gate, I do not think of it as a real "RPG", and did not mean to include Bioware in my definition of the "RPG industry."

... You can literally go to any point on the globe with internet access and a credit card and purchase an RPG product (PDFs) and you can join online games (sometimes for free!). With internet access and a mailing address you can get physical product, too. You must be aware of the internet ...

The internet is actually one of the reasons why I am curious regarding the long-term viability of the (pnp) RPG industry (as I mentioned in my initial post).

I think the real problem here, though, is your antiquated definitions and selective way of processing the fraction of information you acknowledge. ... I have a feeling that if you respond honestly to this post it will include much hemming and hawing about how you meant only physical products and how you were not meaning to include compuer RPGs. ... .

No "hemming and hawing" here, but a straight-up apology: I should have been clearer. My poll was intended to refer to the PnP RPG industry, not the computer "RPG" industry (i.e. WotC and similar companies, not Bioware etc.)

... you need to try and stuggle your way into the same century where the rest of us gamers now exist. When you arrive, try not to stand with your mouth agape, bedazzled by the shiny new future you've discovered. The time you waste in awe of today will only allow tomorrow to arrive while you are unaware, yet again.

Yes, these comments definitely strengthen the plausibility of your claims.

And I love you too!

 

[Hand of Evil]

I am in the 2012 end-of-the-world group, Bible Code thing and all but then I have seen the end-of-the-world ten plus times now...Cold war, couple of Asteroids, the fall of the Soviet Union, Hale-Bop hitting Jupiter, Y2K, the rise of the European Union, 9/11, deaths of John Wayne and Elvis.

 

[Sir Elton]

Dude, you're like third gen.

so that makes us Roleplayers born when D&D born second Gen?

 

[Sir Elton]

However, I have a feeling that if you respond honestly to this post it will include much hemming and hawing about how you meant only physical products and how you were not meaning to include compuer RPGs. Unless your alarm clock is akin to an archeologist, digging you up every morning in a world that is alien to your fossilized mentality, you need to try and stuggle your way into the same century where the rest of us gamers now exist. When you arrive, try not to stand with your mouth agape, bedazzled by the shiny new future you've discovered. The time you waste in awe of today will only allow tomorrow to arrive while you are unaware, yet again.

That's not "How to Win Friends and Influence People."

 

[pennywiz]

That's not "How to Win Friends and Influence People."

Don't be empathically thin-skinned for another. I think he took it as the over-expressed hyperbole and tongue in cheek ribbing it was meant to be. He's old enough, like me, to have watched Monty Python's Flying Circus in its first run on US television. so I'm sure he recognized the style.

Or are you so thick as to-

Whoops! I almost did it again!

 

[pennywiz]

No "hemming and hawing" here, but a straight-up apology: I should have been clearer.

Point taken but I still think you are not recognizing that the industry isn't losing ground; a portion of it is merely evolving and you are feeling like you are being left behind because of it. You need to shake off the dust that our generation seems to proudly collect like merit badges for a club that we no longer even would wish to attend, even if it was still holding meetings. Too many people our age can't seem to look forward with both eyes, constantly casting glances to the past as if nostalgia was a destination. Eyes front, Mister!

 

[The_Universe]

Data please. The WotC spokesperson in the BBC documentary I mentioned earlier seemed to indicate the opposite.

In fact, every one of the (admittedly rather few) articles that I have read on this subject (occasioned by the whole "30th anniversary" thing) has suggested that while 3rd edition led to a slight "revival" of DnD playing, it did not succeed in recapturing the popularity it had enjoyed in the early 1980s.

Really, if someone has some data other than their personal opinion to contradict this impression, I would be be very happy to learn about it!

I guess I got a very different impression of most of that stuff than you did. While it was clear that a lot of the people who had been part of the initial boom of the hobby have moved on and disconnected from the community and the industry, I don't really think that it reflects an overall contraction of the hobby. Quite the opposite in fact.

I would suggest that the majority of DnD players are not lifelong gamers. Instead, it is a hobby that occupies between four and eight years of their life (typically some combination of junior high, high school, and college/university) before social pressures push most people to move on to more "grown up" activities.[1] It's natural that a lot of these people would be surprised that the industry survived them.

Would you really expect that a game you played in someone's basement and (probably) didn't tell many people about and then quit as soon as you realized it wasn't cool was still being played? I can understand why you wouldn't.

Yet, the game has grown, exponentially. The most recent incarnation of D&D has served to draw some of the hallowed first generation back to the hobby (in part because of the quality of the game, in part because they have more disposable income) and has also begun to draw in an unconnected second and third and fourth generation of gamers, all in an era of nerd chic. Rust monsters and beholders appear on Futurama, and Homer Simpson can proudly report that he played dungeons and dragons before being killed by an elf.

It's part of the culture. Yet, just like I have trouble fathoming why people are returning to fashions that were popular when I was a child (legwarmers, anyone?), so too would former players be shocked to hear that the game they had long given up for dead had not only returned, but had never left.

Anyway, that's just a long winded way of saying people who used to play are not a good set to ask if the industry is growing. Furthermore, based on the way I heard it, as well as mountains of accompanying data (including bookstore stocking patterns) D&D is stronger than it has ever been in my lifetime.



[1]Now, before I get caught in a flame war with someone who's been playing since birth, and intends to play until the day they die, I want you to know that I feel very much the same. I first encountered D&D in the 8th grade at the tender age of 13, but was familiar with some of the proto-RPG boardgames like Games Workshop's HeroQuest from several years earlier. I'm a college graduate and a married, working adult and I still play. I'm just talking about a hypothetical *most gamers* which is not meant to include most of the people on these boards, who display uncommon levels of dedication.

 

[Bards R Us]

Man, I have been seeing this same attitude in the comic industry as well and it is alive and kicking. To say the RPG industry, or even comic books, are going to go belly up is like saying indy labels are going to dry up and vanish. Maybe, but not bloody likely because as long as people want to create and express themselves these things will always exist.

Jason

And the pc gaming industry too. And the pro wrestling industry.

 

[Bards R Us]

Oh yes!



Data please?

The recent BBC documentary on DnD was of the "where-are-they-now" variety. Many people, apparently, were surprised the game was still being played. This does not suggest to me that DnD has expanded a 1000-fold since the early 80s.

Indeed, IIRC the WotC spokesperson they interviewed pretty much acknowledged this fact.

I started playing in the late 70s. Back then, you could find RPG material almost everywhere. Today, only the big book chains and specialist game shops carry RPG material. And there seem to be far fewer game shops that cater heavily to RPGs.

Actually, I think I made this request in my initial post -- does anyone have hard data on the current popularity of RPGs/DnD? Or its popularity over the course of the past 30 years? I remember recently reading an article that claimed that there were about 5 million players at the height of DnD's popularity in the early 80s, and only about 2 million today. But I could be wrong (I don't have the article here, or know its source).

Interview with Ed Stark

{own personal experience}
Admittedly I was much the same way, I didn't know people were still playing DnD till this day. But then again that was true of other table-top hobbies. I was bigtime video gamer during the mid-90's when the Magic:the Gathering and Warhammer (which make more money) were supposedly experiencing a huge boom. But until recently, I never knew anybody who played these games, I never even heard of them until last year. I was even surprised that there were hardcore boardgamers.

 

[Iuz]

I think the biggest thing we're seeing is that D&D is yesterday's news - the general public doesn't care anymore.

In the 80s D&D got an enourmous amount of hype from the media, even if there wasn't a huge base of players. Mainstream bookstores and hobby stores started carrying D&D because they had heard that huge hoards of dangerous teenagers were dying to buy these products. Eventually they realized the market for RPGs was small, and took them off the shelves.

Of course, like most others in this thread I am just making guesses I have no real hard facts. The two numbers I have heard was 4 million gamers world wide in the late 80s (this was from BADD) and 20 million gamers world wide today (Wizards of the Coast).