Will the RPG industry disappear by 2014?

RPG industry in 2014?

  • No industry! Everything will be fan-based and free! Burning Man rocks!

    Votes: 9 2.3%
  • The industry will still exist, albeit in a faded, Elves in the 4th Age, kinda way.

    Votes: 48 12.5%
  • Things will be about the same as now, eh.

    Votes: 248 64.8%
  • Fool! You failed to predit the great RPG revival of 2009! HAHAHA!

    Votes: 78 20.4%

I don't see a major decline in 10 years. This is a niche hobby. I can't imagine that the numbers fluctuate all that much outside of companies that compete with one another. Personally, I think that the quality of product and writing is better now than it was in the 1980's. Though some of the 1e stuff is some of my favorite. Short of some unforeseen innovation, I see the industry (in 2014)much the same as it is now.
 

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Sargon the Kassadian said:
Hey all, I'm in the "next generation", and we're doing fine. I'm fifteen, live in a town of 30,000 people, and I know at least 20 kids my age here who game. Though that may not be "thriving" and we don't all roleplay as much as I would like, it seems that RPGs are not dying here in Claremont, CA
Greetings! I was about to say much the same thing. In my line of work I interact with many children and teens every day, and I know lots of 10 year old boys who think that D&D is the coolest thing ever. The teens aren't as effusive about their excitement, but they do check out lots of RPG books.
 

Sargon the Kassadian said:
Hey all, I'm in the "next generation", and we're doing fine. I'm fifteen, live in a town of 30,000 people, and I know at least 20 kids my age here who game. Though that may not be "thriving" and we don't all roleplay as much as I would like, it seems that RPGs are not dying here in Claremont, CA

Dude, you're like third gen. :lol:
 

Akrasia said:
RPGs have never recaptured the popularity that they enjoyed in the early 1980s.
Are you kidding?

More people play RPGs today than ever before. RPG revenues are higher than ever. You can purchase RPG products at just about any bookstore, with more shelfspace devoted to more products from more companies.
 

Seeker95 said:
Are you kidding?

More people play RPGs today than ever before. RPG revenues are higher than ever. You can purchase RPG products at just about any bookstore, with more shelfspace devoted to more products from more companies.

RPG revenues and RPG popularity are two separate things. Even adjusting for inflation, it is clear that RPG books, etc., were MUCH cheaper in the early 1980s than they are now.

Were your around in the early 80's? Your could purchase RPG products EVERYWHERE back then. At least in my experience (in Toronto, London, and Detroit) RPG products were far more common than they are now.
 

Seeker95 said:
... More people play RPGs today than ever before. ....

Data please. The WotC spokesperson in the BBC documentary I mentioned earlier seemed to indicate the opposite.

In fact, every one of the (admittedly rather few) articles that I have read on this subject (occasioned by the whole "30th anniversary" thing) has suggested that while 3rd edition led to a slight "revival" of DnD playing, it did not succeed in recapturing the popularity it had enjoyed in the early 1980s.

Really, if someone has some data other than their personal opinion to contradict this impression, I would be be very happy to learn about it!
 
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I'd be interested to see some sort of figures on how many players there were then (70s, 80s, 90s) and Now to really see how popular PnP RPGs are.

I suspect that most companies will be like Necromancer Games where the writers, developers, company owners have day jobs and this is just part of a leisure outlet. I think full time RPG companies will struggle to survive (I hope not, but I wouldn't bet on it) and actually make enough for writers to get a living wage from publishing.
 

It will appear to have disappeared, but will merely be under the effects of a Screen spell. Yes, by then it will have progressed to 15th level. My Augury result was a "weal"...
 
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Akrasia said:
Data please?

Throw me the whip and I'll throw you the idol.


Akrasia said:
The recent BBC documentary on DnD was of the "where-are-they-now" variety. Many people, apparently, were surprised the game was still being played. This does not suggest to me that DnD has expanded a 1000-fold since the early 80s.

Indeed, IIRC the WotC spokesperson they interviewed pretty much acknowledged this fact.

The WotC spokesperson acknowledges that there are people who have left the hobby (many of whom return from time to time). WotC's sales numbers alone would suggest the hobby has expanded that mcuh and once you factor in every company that produces RPG products (including computer RPGs) it's impossible to sanely deny that the market has grown by at least that much. We're not just discussing D&D but ALL RPGs.


Akrasia said:
I started playing in the late 70s. Back then, you could find RPG material almost everywhere. Today, only the big book chains and specialist game shops carry RPG material.

Your source? Today they are in even more locations. Beyond physical locations, the internet makes this possible. You can literally go to any point on the globe with internet access and a credit card and purchase an RPG product (PDFs) and you can join online games (sometimes for free!). With internet access and a mailing address you can get physical product, too. You must be aware of the internet, unless you are dictating your posts to someone who has uploaded them without your knowledge.


Akrasia said:
And there seem to be far fewer game shops that cater heavily to RPGs.

Your source? I ask because I feel there seems to be far more game shops heavily into RPGs.


Akrasia said:
Actually, I think I made this request in my initial post -- does anyone have hard data on the current popularity of RPGs/DnD? Or its popularity over the course of the past 30 years? I remember recently reading an article that claimed that there were about 5 million players at the height of DnD's popularity in the early 80s, and only about 2 million today. But I could be wrong (I don't have the article here, or know its source).

No such article credibly exists. Hard data is often cited by Hasbro in their quarterly financial statements. If you comb Ken Hite's articles you'll find information on the brick and mortar retail numbers showing that WotC sales is actually only a portion of the marget (Gosh!).

I think the real problem here, though, is your antiquated definitions and selective way of processing the fraction of information you acknowledge. Google is your friend and is just as easy to use as it is to make outrageous claims with caveats that you might not have all of the information available.

However, I have a feeling that if you respond honestly to this post it will include much hemming and hawing about how you meant only physical products and how you were not meaning to include compuer RPGs. Unless your alarm clock is akin to an archeologist, digging you up every morning in a world that is alien to your fossilized mentality, you need to try and stuggle your way into the same century where the rest of us gamers now exist. When you arrive, try not to stand with your mouth agape, bedazzled by the shiny new future you've discovered. The time you waste in awe of today will only allow tomorrow to arrive while you are unaware, yet again.
 

I don't see the RPG market going down in the next ten years. At least I will do my part and make sure that my kids replace me when I am gone :D

Seriously, the direction I would like the industry to go is on software tool for the PnP games. In ten years Laptop will be a commodity (they are already but still not affordable by everyone) You would connect all the Laptop togheter, and the character sheet would be maintained in the computer, we could also have those battlemap incorporated in the software, more tools for the DM. Enough tools so that you can all play remotely, all at the table or a few around the table and the other players on a video conference call. With good bandwith and a large enough TV you would almost feel that you are with your friends. I think that such an alternative would come before the VR thing. The only problem is that we need to invent computer dices that can using ,bluetooth tech or other wireless tech, send the result to the computer. Because I hate computer generated roll, there is nothing like rolling your dice.
 
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