Will the RPG industry disappear by 2014?

[Akrasia]

RPGs have never recaptured the popularity that they enjoyed in the early 1980s.

It is unclear whether d20/3E DnD was as effective at 'reviving' DnD as many had hoped. (It has been argued that a less costly and rules-heavy alternative would have been more successful. I am not sure about this, so if anyone has some hard data about the success/failure of the d20 'revival', please feel free to share it.)

There have been many recent reports that a number of game companies have left the RPG, or at least the d20, market. Others are reducing their RPG/d20 focus.

Many "out-of-print" RPGs are available for very little money as pdfs. The SRD is free online, as are a number of other "in-print" rules-systems (e.g. GURPS lite).

The internet supports many communities that produce free material for both in-print, and out-of-print, RPGs.

Soon it will be very inexpensive to print and bind books for individual use.

All this makes me wonder: has the RPG industry a future?

My prediction: by 2014 there will be no RPG industry. Okay, maybe 2024. Sure, RPGs will still be around, and perhaps even doing reasonably well. But no industry. Everything will be fan-supported and free.

But I am only one person (at least when I remember to take my medication). My epistemic resources are limited. I could very well be wrong.

Thoughts?

 

[DragonLancer]

I think things will stay the same. People come and people go. Same with games and games companies. In ten years time I still fully expect D&D to still be around (hopefully without a 4th ed yet) along with the other major game systems.

The only real change I can see coming is a shift to internet sales over LGS's.

 

[Wombat]

Ten years from now? Sorta depends on the economy in general I suppose, but in general I think p&p rpgs will fade in the face of better computer and, more importantly, console games.

Just one man's opinion. Hardly set in stone and I am quite willing to be convinced otherwise

 

[Thornir Alekeg]

Just because RPGs have not recaptured the popularity they had in the eighty's (I cannot be sure that is really correct, but let's take it for truth) it does not mean they will not show some resurgence. Perhaps some publisher will come up with something that is revolutionary and will excite a whole new generation of gamers.

There are plenty of people who lack the time or the creativity to do the work themselves so they will rely on someone else to do it.

Copyrights will still exist. So some freelancer puts out a bit of work that he has copyrighted and suddenly finds it is incredibly popular. Hey, he thinks, maybe people will pay for the sequel!

Continuity is key - people find a setting they like and want more material to help them use it. If it is all freelance work, there will be little continuity in the material unless everything becomes generic.

Writing is not easy work, and if people actually are interested in someone's writing, they will probably be willing to pay for it.

How is this different from the software industry? Freeware and open source products still exist, and yet for the most part the software industry is doing OK.

There are no future facts, but it is my belief that the industry will still exist in 10, 20 even 30 years from now. Perhaps it will wax and wane like many industries, but I do not think it will die since I will surely still be playing and will be willing to pay for excellent work.

 

[fanboy2000]

RPGs have never recaptured the popularity that they enjoyed in the early 1980s.

It is unclear whether d20/3E DnD was as effective at 'reviving' DnD as many had hoped. (It has been argued that a less costly and rules-heavy alternative would have been more successful. I am not sure about this, so if anyone has some hard data about the success/failure of the d20 'revival', please feel free to share it.)

There have been many recent reports that a number of game companies have left the RPG, or at least the d20, market. Others are reducing their RPG/d20 focus.

Many "out-of-print" RPGs are available for very little money as pdfs. The SRD is free online, as are a number of other "in-print" rules-systems (e.g. GURPS lite).

The internet supports many communities that produce free material for both in-print, and out-of-print, RPGs.

Soon it will be very inexpensive to print and bind books for individual use.

All this makes me wonder: has the RPG industry a future?

My prediction: by 2014 there will be no RPG industry. Okay, maybe 2024. Sure, RPGs will still be around, and perhaps even doing reasonably well. But no industry. Everything will be fan-supported and free.

But I am only one person (at least when I remember to take my medication). My epistemic resources are limited. I could very well be wrong.

Thoughts?

You say that RPGs never recaputred the popularity thay had in the 80's. I have a hard time beliving that the 3e PHB sold fewer copies than the 1e PHB. I know for a fact that WotC retail had a hard time keeping the orange box D&D Adventure game. I wouldn't be suprised if, at $10, it sold more copies than the old Red Box.

There are two things that will keep the industry alive and well:

1. People pay for convenience. I don't think printing a whole book is going to be as cheep as you think, even 10 years from now.

2. Many people like systems that are well supported and currently in print. I don't mind playing oop games, but many people seem to prefre games that are in print. (Sortof like people who prefer there rules to come from an offical source.)

That many companies are leaving the industry is to be expected. Think of Linux, 5-6 years ago, there were dozens of Linux distributions, (and a few other alterinive OSs too, but that is neither here nor there) and now theres only a few. Why? Because that's what the industry can support. When all is said and done, we end-up with exactly the nuber of companys d20 can support. Notice also that non-d20 companies seem to be stable. White Wolf, Steve Jackson Games, Palladium, and Fanpro (who's inherited FASA) are all still around.

 

[Lord Foul]

Ten years from now? Sorta depends on the economy in general I suppose, but in general I think p&p rpgs will fade in the face of better computer and, more importantly, console games.

Just one man's opinion. Hardly set in stone and I am quite willing to be convinced otherwise

I agree with everything except for the PnP RPGs fading. Playing on the computer or PS2 is nice but its not the social event that the PnP game is. PnP has faded since the 80's because of the computer and games like NWN, but look at the gamers seeking gamers forum to see thousands of people looking for groups to join. The best part of RPGs is the face to face social interaction with other people. You can come close on the computer but its still not the same as sitting around the kitchen table (eating pizza and drinking Mt.Dew), and playing D&D with your friends.

 

[Krieg]

If there are people playing RPGs there will be an industry around to make a buck off of it. Period.

 

[pennywiz]

RPGs have never recaptured the popularity that they enjoyed in the early 1980s.

- snip -

Thoughts?

Clearly you are insane. The RPG industry has gone from a multi-million dollar industry to a multi-billion dollar industry. To recapture the level of popularity enjoyed in the eighties, only one out of every thousand gamers would be allowed to live or retain any knowledge of RPGs. Are you advocating wholesale slaughter or merely mass-lobotomization? Either way, I'm on board provided I can be one of your chosen survivors sans gaping head wound.

 

[Master Gunns]

The Gaming Industry is here to Stay!

There are no future facts, but it is my belief that the industry will still exist in 10, 20 even 30 years from now. Perhaps it will wax and wane like many industries, but I do not think it will die since I will surely still be playing and will be willing to pay for excellent work.

I agree with this, there will always be those with out the time or skill to create their own material, but are willing to pay others. I know, I'm one of them.

Sam

 

[Truth Seeker]

Imagination: Without that....there will be no RPG.

If our minds were quieted, by some unknown reason or force...the ability to dream of the impossible, then yes...the industry will end.

Until that moment comes to pass, it will continue.