Will the RPG industry disappear by 2014?

[teitan]

Man, I have been seeing this same attitude in the comic industry as well and it is alive and kicking. To say the RPG industry, or even comic books, are going to go belly up is like saying indy labels are going to dry up and vanish. Maybe, but not bloody likely because as long as people want to create and express themselves these things will always exist.

Jason

 

[cybertalus]

I am afraid I can not vote for you failed to provide the option "There will be no RPG industry as the world will end in December 2012."

This one gets my vote too, because it means I never have to turn 40.

Though I would've also been tempted to vote for "If I could predict the future I'd be too busy playing the stock market, the lottery, and D&D with a well-paid DM to actually have time to answer this question."

In other words.... I don't know. The only future event I ever predicted correctly was the Y2K computer date problem, but since I was 10 years old at the time, all the adults I asked about it looked at me like I was crazy. Or maybe it was because Y2K was over 15 years away at the time.

Anyhow, if I had to take a guess, I'd say the RPG industry will still be around in ten years. It'll probably look different than it does now, but exactly how I wouldn't venture to guess.

 

[Dark Jezter]

Krieg already said what I was going to. Basically, as long as there's a demand for PnP RPGs, somebody will publish them.

 

[Bards R Us]

RPGs have never recaptured the popularity that they enjoyed in the early 1980s.

It is unclear whether d20/3E DnD was as effective at 'reviving' DnD as many had hoped. (It has been argued that a less costly and rules-heavy alternative would have been more successful. I am not sure about this, so if anyone has some hard data about the success/failure of the d20 'revival', please feel free to share it.)

There have been many recent reports that a number of game companies have left the RPG, or at least the d20, market. Others are reducing their RPG/d20 focus.

Many "out-of-print" RPGs are available for very little money as pdfs. The SRD is free online, as are a number of other "in-print" rules-systems (e.g. GURPS lite).

The internet supports many communities that produce free material for both in-print, and out-of-print, RPGs.

Soon it will be very inexpensive to print and bind books for individual use.

All this makes me wonder: has the RPG industry a future?

My prediction: by 2014 there will be no RPG industry. Okay, maybe 2024. Sure, RPGs will still be around, and perhaps even doing reasonably well. But no industry. Everything will be fan-supported and free.

But I am only one person (at least when I remember to take my medication). My epistemic resources are limited. I could very well be wrong.

Thoughts?

Eh..so? Its not like the industry really needed to have the gazillion companies producing supplements to basically support one game (DnD). Sure, there are companies that are leaving RPGs or reducing their exposure. No biggie. So unlike the video game industry, where a CRAPLOAD of developers and publishers, just from this year alone, have been going under or are close to bankruptcy. Not to mention layoffs...

 

[Bards R Us]

Ten years from now? Sorta depends on the economy in general I suppose, but in general I think p&p rpgs will fade in the face of better computer and, more importantly, console games.

Just one man's opinion. Hardly set in stone and I am quite willing to be convinced otherwise

Interesting, since computer gaming, quite frankly, has been declining dramatically in revenue in the last couple of years and considered by many analysts to be losing out to consoles.

Has anyone noticed that it seems like the people who are most likely to declare RPGs dead are, of all people, PC gamers? Yeah, like THEY should talk of all people.........

 

[Bards R Us]

All I know is the MMORPG business will dwarf the RPG industry. Actually, does it already?

It certainly makes more money, as for it being more popular I'm not too sure about that. Theres been alot of MMORPGs that have been discontinued or cancelled lately because companies have WAY over-estimated the number of people who are willing to pay a monthly fee for what are often just glorified chat rooms. See the expensive failure that is the Sims Online. Most "online gaming" (very loosely defined) consists of middle-aged woman who play FREE puzzle and gameshow games on the net during work.

 

[Nisarg]

PnP RPGs might, just MIGHT, die out when and if full-scale VR is possible.. I'm talking holodecks here.

There were people who said that with the existence of Ebooks, paper books would be dead by now.

There were people who said with the invention of television the legitimate stage would be dead by the 1970s.

What these kinds of predictions underestimated was the force of these more traditional media as media, and the relationship between these media and the new, similar yet different media that have come into being. TV is awesome, it changes society, but its never going to be like live theater. Ebooks are convenient, but they aren't real books. Neither is a palmpilot.

MMORPGS are not pnp RPGs. They can't be. Online multi-player chess is closer to real chess than MMORPGS are to RPGs, yet many many people still play real chess.

Industry wise, the costs of actually publishing are relatively less nwo than they were in the 80s, you can do a more professional job with far less people and start-up resources. To me, that's a sign that actual physical RPG books will continue for some time to come...

Nisarg

 

[Vigilance]

Someone needs to make a poll to determine when these *** **** ************ "the sky is falling! the sky is falling!" threads are going to stop.

Chuck

 

[Bards R Us]

Someone needs to make a poll to determine when these *** **** ************ "the sky is falling! the sky is falling!" threads are going to stop.

Chuck

Must be the creeping invasion of closet RPG.net posters

 

[Sargon the Kassadian]

Hey all, I'm in the "next generation", and we're doing fine. I'm fifteen, live in a town of 30,000 people, and I know at least 20 kids my age here who game. Though that may not be "thriving" and we don't all roleplay as much as I would like, it seems that RPGs are not dying here in Claremont, CA