D&D 4E WotC, DDI, 4E, and Hasbro: Some History

After Vince Calouri was pushed out of Wizards of the Coast he was replaced by Chuck Heubner. Chuck basically had to manage Wizards on the downslope from the Pokemon salad days. Hasbro has been through many boom & bust cycles in the toy business and they have a standard response when it happens: cut headcount and reduce overhead. Since Wizards was de facto the only part of the business that had...
After Vince Calouri was pushed out of Wizards of the Coast he was replaced by Chuck Heubner. Chuck basically had to manage Wizards on the downslope from the Pokemon salad days. Hasbro has been through many boom & bust cycles in the toy business and they have a standard response when it happens: cut headcount and reduce overhead. Since Wizards was de facto the only part of the business that had not been rolled up into Hasbro proper it was not insulated by the successes of other things at Hasbro like GI Joe or Transformers.

While this was happening there was a big internal fight for control over the CCG business within Hasbro. Brian Goldner who was at the time the head of the Boys Toys (i.e. half the company) division of Hasbro thought that the company was missing a huge window of opportunity to follow up Pokemon with a series of mass-market CCGs linked to Hasbro's core brands GI Joe and Transformers. These battles resulted in things being escalated all the way to the C-Suite and the Hasbro Board, where Brian lost the fight and Wizards retained the exclusive ability within Hasbro to make CCGs. The downside for Wizards is that they were forced to do things with the Duelmaster brand that they did not want to do, and it never got the traction in the US that Wizards thought it could achieve. (In Japan, by contrast, it became a huge best-seller).

Chuck left after two years and Loren Greenwood, who had been the long time VP of Sales, replaced him in 2004. He was also a visible proponent of the idea that Wizards, and not Boys Toys, should set Hasbro's CCG strategy. Thus when Brian was named COO of the whole company in 2006 and CEO in 2008, Loren had a big problem on his hands. Loren guided the company through the post 3.5e crash of the TRPG market, the loss of the Pokemon franchise, and the unwinding of the Wizards retail strategy. All of this was pretty bitter fruit for hm since he'd been instrumental in building up much of what had to then be torn down. The combination of all these things led to Loren's exit and his replacement by Greg Leeds, who is the current CEO of Wizards.

Sometime around 2005ish, Hasbro made an internal decision to divide its businesses into two categories. Core brands, which had more than $50 million in annual sales, and had a growth path towards $100 million annual sales, and Non-Core brands, which didn't.

Under Goldner, the Core Brands would be the tentpoles of the company. They would be exploited across a range of media with an eye towards major motion pictures, following the path Transformers had blazed. Goldner saw what happened to Marvel when they re-oriented their company from a publisher of comic books to a brand building factory (their market capitalization increased by something like 2 billion dollars). He wanted to replicate that at Hasbro.

Core Brands would get the financing they requested for development of their businesses (within reason). Non-Core brands would not. They would be allowed to rise & fall with the overall toy market on their own merits without a lot of marketing or development support. In fact, many Non-Core brands would simply be mothballed - allowed to go dormant for some number of years until the company was ready to take them down off the shelf and try to revive them for a new generation of kids.

At the point of the original Hasbro/Wizards merger a fateful decision was made that laid the groundwork for what happened once Greg took over. Instead of focusing Hasbro on the idea that Wizards of the Coast was a single brand, each of the lines of business in Wizards got broken out and reported to Hasbro as a separate entity. This was driven in large part by the fact that the acquisition agreement specified a substantial post-acquisition purchase price adjustment for Wizards' shareholders on the basis of the sales of non-Magic CCGs (i.e. Pokemon).

This came back to haunt Wizards when Hasbro's new Core/Non-Core strategy came into focus. Instead of being able to say "We're a $100+ million brand, keep funding us as we desire", each of the business units inside Wizards had to make that case separately. So the first thing that happened was the contraction you saw when Wizards dropped new game development and became the "D&D and Magic" company. Magic has no problem hitting the "Core" brand bar, but D&D does. It's really a $25-30 million business, especially since Wizards isn't given credit for the licensing revenue of the D&D computer games.

It would have been very easy for Goldner et al to tell Wizards "you're done with D&D, put it on a shelf and we'll bring it back 10 years from now as a multi-media property managed from Rhode Island". There's no way that the D&D business circa 2006 could have supported the kind of staff and overhead that it was used to. Best case would have been a very small staff dedicated to just managing the brand and maybe handling some freelance pool doing minimal adventure content. So this was an existential issue (like "do we exist or not") for the part of Wizards that was connected to D&D. That's something between 50 and 75 people.

Sometime around 2006, the D&D team made a big presentation to the Hasbro senior management on how they could take D&D up to the $50 million level and potentially keep growing it. The core of that plan was a synergistic relationship between the tabletop game and what came to be known as DDI. At the time Hasbro didn't have the rights to do an MMO for D&D, so DDI was the next best thing. The Wizards team produced figures showing that there were millions of people playing D&D and that if they could move a moderate fraction of those people to DDI, they would achieve their revenue goals. Then DDI could be expanded over time and if/when Hasbro recovered the video gaming rights, it could be used as a platform to launch a true D&D MMO, which could take them over $100 million/year.

The DDI pitch was that the 4th Edition would be designed so that it would work best when played with DDI. DDI had a big VTT component of its design that would be the driver of this move to get folks to hybridize their tabletop game with digital tools. Unfortunately, a tragedy struck the DDI team and it never really recovered. The VTT wasn't ready when 4e launched, and the explicit link between 4e and DDI that had been proposed to Hasbro's execs never materialized. The team did a yoeman's effort to make 4e work anyway while the VTT evolved, but they simply couldn't hit the numbers they'd promised selling books alone. The marketplace backlash to 4e didn't help either.

Greg wasn't in the hot seat long enough to really take the blame for the 4e/DDI plan, and Wizards just hired a new exec to be in charge of Sales & Marketing, and Bill Slavicsek who headed RPG R&D left last summer, so the team that committed those numbers to Hasbro are gone. The team that's there now probably doesn't have a blank sheet of paper and an open checkbook, but they also don't have to answer to Hasbro for the promises of the prior regime.

As to their next move? Only time will tell.
 

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Ryan S. Dancey

Ryan S. Dancey

OGL Architect
I think there will always be a certain amount of "what-if" speculation surrounding 4E. What if the VTT had actually worked? What if they had chucked that idea and spent the money on further development? What if Hasbro had included the money D&D generated from game sales and they had pushed the value of the IP instead? What if I had purchased the first edition Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle comic book I saw in the store and thought to myself "That looks fun, I bet it will be worth something someday."

Okay, maybe that last one was a bit off topic. ;)
 
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I thought this was important for this thread. I think there is another were we figure out how many subscribers there were for ddi at some point, I’ll find it later.

in 2019 4e D&D Insider made WotC nearly $300 thousand in revenue. Maybe more from drivethru.

 

I thought this was important for this thread. I think there is another were we figure out how many subscribers there were for ddi at some point, I’ll find it later.

in 2019 4e D&D Insider made WotC nearly $300 thousand in revenue. Maybe more from drivethru.


Wasn't there a point where they had 80K+ subscribers to it (yes, Beyond has exceeded that by far, if Beyond was owned by WotC at the time of 4e and was in similar make up as it is today, 4e may have actually been one of the stronger showings).

If we go at the low end of $10 a month for a subscriber, that's around 800K a month (not shabby, but still not exceeding the 50 million barrier).
 

I was in three different groups when 4E came out. In each group, one person would be a paying member, and s/he shared the login info so that everyone could download the character builder program.
When they switched from the downloaded version to the online-only builder, they used silverlight, which was already a dying tech, rather than something that would last. Sure, then everyone in a group had to be a paying subscriber, but for an inferior product.
I certainly wouldn't want to point out that hackers later found a way to patch the offline character builder with all the 4th edition rules that came after the switch--that would be very naughty. And I am not encouraging the use of pirate software. We can build characters the way D&D had always done it: with pen and paper and character sheets. And a complete set of the books that are relevant for character creation. And hopefully you have printouts of the Dragon Magazine issues for the 4th edition era.
 

I thought this was important for this thread. I think there is another were we figure out how many subscribers there were for ddi at some point, I’ll find it later.

in 2019 4e D&D Insider made WotC nearly $300 thousand in revenue. Maybe more from drivethru.



So I want to mention some things here, because the "D&D did not sell anymore in 2013" / "4E sold so bad" is a bit misleading, since WotC did decide to to some degree to "Not focus on D&D anymore" which can be seen quite clearly when you look at 2013


First: There was pretty much nothing to buy from D&D in 2013:

1. Not a single D&D RPG book was released in 2013. List of Dungeons & Dragons rulebooks - Wikipedia so there was from the RPG point just nothing new to buy.
2. And even in 2012 only 3 RPG books were released and in general the number of D&D releases for 4e was really slim: D&D 4E - The yet still complete list of official 4E D&D products: now with new format! so even from the year before there was almost nothing to buy. The only big book (Shadow options) was even released February.
3. This means there with the exception of Menzobarane (which is quite neutral) a 2 year gap between D&D 4e and D&D 5e. The gap between 3.5 and 4e has been less than 6 months (3.5 books being published in 2007 2nd half and 4e being available fully from June 2008 and the first (not so good) starter adventure was playable from may: Keep on the Shadowfell - Wikipedia ). So unlike in 4E where people "just bought the new 3.5 books" people where actually waiting for quite some time to buy some new books when 5e launched.
4. Also the last "starter set" for 4E was released in 2010 4 years before 5e released. The last starter set for 3.5 was released in 2007 the year before the 4E release. And these sets are important for bringing new players in.
5. There where also a lot less D&D novels released in 2013 than the previous years. (2014 was only a bit better though): List of Dungeons & Dragons fiction - Wikipedia
6. There were only 2 D&D boardgames released in 2013, one was an expansion to an existing one (so only people who had the original one could buy it) and the other one was an expansion to the not so popular "dungeon command" series: Setting: Dungeons & Dragons and none of the release successfull adventure system ones: Series: Dungeons & Dragons Adventure System Board Games (They only started again in 2015)
7. Compared to this in 2014 a completly new product line the attack wing launched: Setting: Dungeons & Dragons (which was not that popular but its also more wargame than boardgame so BGG stats are not that useful)
8. The only really new character options since February 2012 came from 6+6 Dragon magazines published in 2012 and 2013: Publication:Dragon (magazine) - Dungeons and Dragons Wiki
9. Even Miniatures were not released that much anymore. March 2013 was the newest release of D&D miniatures (5th product in the series). And then in 2014 a complete new series: Dungeons & Dragons Miniatures Game - Wikipedi
10. Unlike the 2019 version the 2013 version does NOT include drivethru RPG which in 2021 made 21% of their sales through there. And 4e was at that time already on drivethru RPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/de/product/163174/neverwinter-campaign-setting-4e


Here is the excellent visualization made by a forum member: https://www.enworld.org/attachments/1758289100154-png.417479/ 2013 just has nothing after 2012 already had not too much.


Second: The tail of sales 4E are surprisingly good!

1. In 2013 as above mentioned there where no books released only some dragon magazines , so D&D insider was not as useful and the estimation we got in another thread was AT LEAST 73,387 subscribers by the end of 2013. At least because only the people who had a subscription + did have a WotC forum account were counted. It made around 3.4 millions in 2013 (even though no new products). It had a yearly subscription fee of 72$ which would make 47 000 subscribers.
2. Wait didnt we say there where at least 73k subscribers by the end of 2013? How many people subscribe to D&D stuff? Yes, but this means that most people did not subscribe for a year, because you could pretty much just download everything even if just subscribing for a month (for 10$). This means that there was a constant shift of people starting and ending subscriptions (which also would allign with these numbers here: How many people subscribe to D&D stuff?
3. As seen in the above post (image) the number of subscribers was actually growing over time! Even in mid 2013 with no releases it was still growing (then end of the year it was going down again).
4. WotC made in 2019 300 000$ with D&D Insider. Well thats surprising since since 2015 one could no longer buy new subscriptions! D&D 4E - 4E DnD Insider Moving; No Longer Available To New Subscribers This means all these people who had it still in 2019 had it the whole time since 2015. And a service which cant get new subscribers normally dwindles a lot faster! Since people change credit cards, unsubcsribe, go broke etc. all the time. So having a stream of new subscribers is normally important. Also as we see in the data above people were actually before often only subscribing for a short amount of time. So this change made a huge difference.
5. From this we can assume that even with a linear decay (which is not realistic since after 2015 the dropoff was a lot harsher most likely), in 2014 D&D insider still made roughly 3 millions. (roughly 500k less revenue per year in average over the 6 years from 2013 to 2019).
6. In 2019 D&D made around 15 million of the 71 million revenue through drivethrurpg with pdfs. Do you know which edition was never released as pdfs? Correct 5e. 4E was the first edition released in PDF form.
7. The PDF release for 5e was not repeated because the PDFs for 4e were often pirated (you can still find them on google search today...) so unlike previous editions it was a lot easier to not buy the game.
8. We can see which books sold most on drivethru RPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/metal.php and we can see that the top books are not 4e, but older ones, but there are quite several books from 4e at some tiers below. And one thing one should take a look at is the release date: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/de/product/17003/players-handbook-1e all the non 4E books were later added to drivethru RPG. So any PDF sales WotC had in 2014 (which I am not sure if we have the statistics of as well), were from 4th edition pdfs (unfortunately in the riggs post we have only the 2013 and 2019 numbers: D&D General - Ben Riggs interviews Fred Hicks and Cam Banks, then shares WotC sales data. )

Third: Initial 5e Sales were not that special D&D became a huge hit later

1. in 2014 WotC made only 29 million with D&D. This with a new edition coming out after 2 years of no books! (as discussed in the above ben riggs thread). And as shown above several of these millions were still D&D 4e (all pdf sales + 3 millions D&D insider). Especially since D&D started again with big marketing like launching a new adventure league: Dungeons & Dragons Roleplaying Game Official Home Page - Article (Coming Soon: D&D Adventurers League!)
2. This is about the same amount of money D&D did make in 2005 (which was mid release!): D&D Insider - Wikipedia
3. The launch of 4e first year was actually huge, so this peak of a bit more than double sales is not so big, 4E almost instantly outsold 3E at launch:
4. What made 5E special was that it did not drop sales the year after, but 2015 was also the year critical role started and became popular: Critical Role - Wikipedia
5. The D&D 5e sales doubled in 2017. Stranger things released the year before: Stranger Things - Wikipedia


So yes 5E was a huge success thanks to many factors, but the initial release was not that special, and the "4e sold not in 2013" is also not that surprising with no products...
 
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I was in three different groups when 4E came out. In each group, one person would be a paying member, and s/he shared the login info so that everyone could download the character builder program.
When they switched from the downloaded version to the online-only builder, they used silverlight, which was already a dying tech, rather than something that would last. Sure, then everyone in a group had to be a paying subscriber, but for an inferior product.
I certainly wouldn't want to point out that hackers later found a way to patch the offline character builder with all the 4th edition rules that came after the switch--that would be very naughty. And I am not encouraging the use of pirate software. We can build characters the way D&D had always done it: with pen and paper and character sheets. And a complete set of the books that are relevant for character creation. And hopefully you have printouts of the Dragon Magazine issues for the 4th edition era.
I'd note that as a MacOS User, the switch to Silverlight actually allowed me to use the D&D Insider toolset, rather than paying for just the Magazine Articles. The original version of the Tools was Windows exclusive.

D&D Beyond is far superior a tool now than that was back then, and in many ways D&D Beyond and Maps (not just Sigil) are the full realization of the tools promised by 4E & DDI. Sigil on the other hand was another go at the internal true goal behind DDI – to transition the game into a hybrid mostly supporting a digital microtransaction MMO version of D&D.

Like with DDI's take, it flopped, because the game wants to be expansive, and CRPGs by definition need to limit the imagination down to the options programmed into the game.
 

So I want to mention some things here, because the "D&D did not sell anymore in 2013" / "4E sold so bad" is a bit misleading, since WotC did decide to to some degree to "Not focus on D&D anymore" which can be seen quite clearly when you look at 2013


First: There was pretty much nothing to buy from D&D in 2013:

1. Not a single D&D RPG book was released in 2013. List of Dungeons & Dragons rulebooks - Wikipedia so there was from the RPG point just nothing new to buy.
2. And even in 2012 only 3 RPG books were released and in general the number of D&D releases for 4e was really slim: D&D 4E - The yet still complete list of official 4E D&D products: now with new format! so even from the year before there was almost nothing to buy. The only big book (Shadow options) was even released February.
3. This means there with the exception of Menzobarane (which is quite neutral) a 2 year gap between D&D 4e and D&D 5e. The gap between 3.5 and 4e has been less than 6 months (3.5 books being published in 2007 2nd half and 4e being available fully from June 2008 and the first (not so good) starter adventure was playable from may: Keep on the Shadowfell - Wikipedia ). So unlike in 4E where people "just bought the new 3.5 books" people where actually waiting for quite some time to buy some new books when 5e launched.
4. Also the last "starter set" for 4E was released in 2010 4 years before 5e released. The last starter set for 3.5 was released in 2007 the year before the 4E release. And these sets are important for bringing new players in.
5. There where also a lot less D&D novels released in 2013 than the previous years. (2014 was only a bit better though): List of Dungeons & Dragons fiction - Wikipedia
6. There were only 2 D&D boardgames released in 2013, one was an expansion to an existing one (so only people who had the original one could buy it) and the other one was an expansion to the not so popular "dungeon command" series: Setting: Dungeons & Dragons and none of the release successfull adventure system ones: Series: Dungeons & Dragons Adventure System Board Games (They only started again in 2015)
7. Compared to this in 2014 a completly new product line the attack wing launched: Setting: Dungeons & Dragons (which was not that popular but its also more wargame than boardgame so BGG stats are not that useful)
8. The only really new character options since February 2012 came from 6+6 Dragon magazines published in 2012 and 2013: Publication:Dragon (magazine) - Dungeons and Dragons Wiki
9. Even Miniatures were not released that much anymore. March 2013 was the newest release of D&D miniatures (5th product in the series). And then in 2014 a complete new series: Dungeons & Dragons Miniatures Game - Wikipedi
10. Unlike the 2019 version the 2013 version does NOT include drivethru RPG which in 2021 made 21% of their sales through there. And 4e was at that time already on drivethru RPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/de/product/163174/neverwinter-campaign-setting-4e


Here is the excellent visualization made by a forum member: https://www.enworld.org/attachments/1758289100154-png.417479/ 2013 just has nothing after 2012 already had not too much.


Second: The tail of sales 4E are surprisingly good!

1. In 2013 as above mentioned there where no books released only some dragon magazines , so D&D insider was not as useful and the estimation we got in another thread was AT LEAST 73,387 subscribers by the end of 2013. At least because only the people who had a subscription + did have a WotC forum account were counted. It made around 3.4 millions in 2013 (even though no new products). It had a yearly subscription fee of 72$ which would make 47 000 subscribers.
2. Wait didnt we say there where at least 73k subscribers by the end of 2013? How many people subscribe to D&D stuff? Yes, but this means that most people did not subscribe for a year, because you could pretty much just download everything even if just subscribing for a month (for 10$). This means that there was a constant shift of people starting and ending subscriptions (which also would allign with these numbers here: How many people subscribe to D&D stuff?
3. As seen in the above post (image) the number of subscribers was actually growing over time! Even in mid 2013 with no releases it was still growing (then end of the year it was going down again).
4. WotC made in 2019 300 000$ with D&D Insider. Well thats surprising since since 2015 one could no longer buy new subscriptions! D&D 4E - 4E DnD Insider Moving; No Longer Available To New Subscribers This means all these people who had it still in 2019 had it the whole time since 2015. And a service which cant get new subscribers normally dwindles a lot faster! Since people change credit cards, unsubcsribe, go broke etc. all the time. So having a stream of new subscribers is normally important. Also as we see in the data above people were actually before often only subscribing for a short amount of time. So this change made a huge difference.
5. From this we can assume that even with a linear decay (which is not realistic since after 2015 the dropoff was a lot harsher most likely), in 2014 D&D insider still made roughly 3 millions. (roughly 500k less revenue per year in average over the 6 years from 2013 to 2019).
6. In 2019 D&D made around 15 million of the 71 million revenue through drivethrurpg with pdfs. Do you know which edition was never released as pdfs? Correct 5e. 4E was the first edition released in PDF form.
7. The PDF release for 5e was not repeated because the PDFs for 4e were often pirated (you can still find them on google search today...) so unlike previous editions it was a lot easier to not buy the game.
8. We can see which books sold most on drivethru RPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/metal.php and we can see that the top books are not 4e, but older ones, but there are quite several books from 4e at some tiers below. And one thing one should take a look at is the release date: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/de/product/17003/players-handbook-1e all the non 4E books were later added to drivethru RPG. So any PDF sales WotC had in 2014 (which I am not sure if we have the statistics of as well), were from 4th edition pdfs (unfortunately in the riggs post we have only the 2013 and 2019 numbers: D&D General - Ben Riggs interviews Fred Hicks and Cam Banks, then shares WotC sales data. )

Third: Initial 5e Sales were not that special D&D became a huge hit later

1. in 2014 WotC made only 29 million with D&D. This with a new edition coming out after 2 years of no books! (as discussed in the above ben riggs thread). And as shown above several of these millions were still D&D 4e (all pdf sales + 3 millions D&D insider). Especially since D&D started again with big marketing like launching a new adventure league: Dungeons & Dragons Roleplaying Game Official Home Page - Article (Coming Soon: D&D Adventurers League!)
2. This is about the same amount of money D&D did make in 2005 (which was mid release!): D&D Insider - Wikipedia
3. The launch of 4e first year was actually huge, so this peak of a bit more than double sales is not so big, 4E almost instantly outsold 3E at launch:
4. What made 5E special was that it did not drop sales the year after, but 2015 was also the year critical role started and became popular: Critical Role - Wikipedia
5. The D&D 5e sales doubled in 2017. Stranger things released the year before: Stranger Things - Wikipedia


So yes 5E was a huge success thanks to many factors, but the initial release was not that special, and the "4e sold not in 2013" is also not that surprising with no products...

The initial release of 5e broke expectations. They had to delay the printing of the DMG to print more PHBs. At first the folks at WotC thought something was wrong it sold so well.

And that’s just for that last paragraph. The rest of the post I didn’t read.
 

So I want to mention some things here, because the "D&D did not sell anymore in 2013" / "4E sold so bad" is a bit misleading, since WotC did decide to to some degree to "Not focus on D&D anymore" which can be seen quite clearly when you look at 2013


First: There was pretty much nothing to buy from D&D in 2013:

1. Not a single D&D RPG book was released in 2013. List of Dungeons & Dragons rulebooks - Wikipedia so there was from the RPG point just nothing new to buy.
2. And even in 2012 only 3 RPG books were released and in general the number of D&D releases for 4e was really slim: D&D 4E - The yet still complete list of official 4E D&D products: now with new format! so even from the year before there was almost nothing to buy. The only big book (Shadow options) was even released February.
3. This means there with the exception of Menzobarane (which is quite neutral) a 2 year gap between D&D 4e and D&D 5e. The gap between 3.5 and 4e has been less than 6 months (3.5 books being published in 2007 2nd half and 4e being available fully from June 2008 and the first (not so good) starter adventure was playable from may: Keep on the Shadowfell - Wikipedia ). So unlike in 4E where people "just bought the new 3.5 books" people where actually waiting for quite some time to buy some new books when 5e launched.
4. Also the last "starter set" for 4E was released in 2010 4 years before 5e released. The last starter set for 3.5 was released in 2007 the year before the 4E release. And these sets are important for bringing new players in.
5. There where also a lot less D&D novels released in 2013 than the previous years. (2014 was only a bit better though): List of Dungeons & Dragons fiction - Wikipedia
6. There were only 2 D&D boardgames released in 2013, one was an expansion to an existing one (so only people who had the original one could buy it) and the other one was an expansion to the not so popular "dungeon command" series: Setting: Dungeons & Dragons and none of the release successfull adventure system ones: Series: Dungeons & Dragons Adventure System Board Games (They only started again in 2015)
7. Compared to this in 2014 a completly new product line the attack wing launched: Setting: Dungeons & Dragons (which was not that popular but its also more wargame than boardgame so BGG stats are not that useful)
8. The only really new character options since February 2012 came from 6+6 Dragon magazines published in 2012 and 2013: Publication:Dragon (magazine) - Dungeons and Dragons Wiki
9. Even Miniatures were not released that much anymore. March 2013 was the newest release of D&D miniatures (5th product in the series). And then in 2014 a complete new series: Dungeons & Dragons Miniatures Game - Wikipedi
10. Unlike the 2019 version the 2013 version does NOT include drivethru RPG which in 2021 made 21% of their sales through there. And 4e was at that time already on drivethru RPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/de/product/163174/neverwinter-campaign-setting-4e


Here is the excellent visualization made by a forum member: https://www.enworld.org/attachments/1758289100154-png.417479/ 2013 just has nothing after 2012 already had not too much.


Second: The tail of sales 4E are surprisingly good!

1. In 2013 as above mentioned there where no books released only some dragon magazines , so D&D insider was not as useful and the estimation we got in another thread was AT LEAST 73,387 subscribers by the end of 2013. At least because only the people who had a subscription + did have a WotC forum account were counted. It made around 3.4 millions in 2013 (even though no new products). It had a yearly subscription fee of 72$ which would make 47 000 subscribers.
2. Wait didnt we say there where at least 73k subscribers by the end of 2013? How many people subscribe to D&D stuff? Yes, but this means that most people did not subscribe for a year, because you could pretty much just download everything even if just subscribing for a month (for 10$). This means that there was a constant shift of people starting and ending subscriptions (which also would allign with these numbers here: How many people subscribe to D&D stuff?
3. As seen in the above post (image) the number of subscribers was actually growing over time! Even in mid 2013 with no releases it was still growing (then end of the year it was going down again).
4. WotC made in 2019 300 000$ with D&D Insider. Well thats surprising since since 2015 one could no longer buy new subscriptions! D&D 4E - 4E DnD Insider Moving; No Longer Available To New Subscribers This means all these people who had it still in 2019 had it the whole time since 2015. And a service which cant get new subscribers normally dwindles a lot faster! Since people change credit cards, unsubcsribe, go broke etc. all the time. So having a stream of new subscribers is normally important. Also as we see in the data above people were actually before often only subscribing for a short amount of time. So this change made a huge difference.
5. From this we can assume that even with a linear decay (which is not realistic since after 2015 the dropoff was a lot harsher most likely), in 2014 D&D insider still made roughly 3 millions. (roughly 500k less revenue per year in average over the 6 years from 2013 to 2019).
6. In 2019 D&D made around 15 million of the 71 million revenue through drivethrurpg with pdfs. Do you know which edition was never released as pdfs? Correct 5e. 4E was the first edition released in PDF form.
7. The PDF release for 5e was not repeated because the PDFs for 4e were often pirated (you can still find them on google search today...) so unlike previous editions it was a lot easier to not buy the game.
8. We can see which books sold most on drivethru RPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/metal.php and we can see that the top books are not 4e, but older ones, but there are quite several books from 4e at some tiers below. And one thing one should take a look at is the release date: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/de/product/17003/players-handbook-1e all the non 4E books were later added to drivethru RPG. So any PDF sales WotC had in 2014 (which I am not sure if we have the statistics of as well), were from 4th edition pdfs (unfortunately in the riggs post we have only the 2013 and 2019 numbers: D&D General - Ben Riggs interviews Fred Hicks and Cam Banks, then shares WotC sales data. )

Third: Initial 5e Sales were not that special D&D became a huge hit later

1. in 2014 WotC made only 29 million with D&D. This with a new edition coming out after 2 years of no books! (as discussed in the above ben riggs thread). And as shown above several of these millions were still D&D 4e (all pdf sales + 3 millions D&D insider). Especially since D&D started again with big marketing like launching a new adventure league: Dungeons & Dragons Roleplaying Game Official Home Page - Article (Coming Soon: D&D Adventurers League!)
2. This is about the same amount of money D&D did make in 2005 (which was mid release!): D&D Insider - Wikipedia
3. The launch of 4e first year was actually huge, so this peak of a bit more than double sales is not so big, 4E almost instantly outsold 3E at launch:
4. What made 5E special was that it did not drop sales the year after, but 2015 was also the year critical role started and became popular: Critical Role - Wikipedia
5. The D&D 5e sales doubled in 2017. Stranger things released the year before: Stranger Things - Wikipedia


So yes 5E was a huge success thanks to many factors, but the initial release was not that special, and the "4e sold not in 2013" is also not that surprising with no products...
Huh. That’s amazing. So the much vaunted “Pathfinder outsold D&D!1!1!” happened when there were literally no new D&D books to buy. Fantastic.
 

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