D&D 5E WOTC Production Schedule
- Thread starter M.T. Black
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Mercurius
Legend
This is a good point and I admit to forgetting about that, but the reason I forget is that A) I'm not part of AL, and B) I don't buy PDFs as I simply dislike electronic reading and/or greatly prefer books. Of course I can do POD...
Yeah, sounds about right. I woudn't be surprised if at some point within the next couple years, they do a fourth book that is akin to an expansion: maybe a new setting book, for instance, that opens up a new world. But we shall see.
It makes me wonder how many copies of earlier story arcs they're still selling. I guess the best estimate is by looking at Amazon sales ranks. Here are the 5E D&D products in order of sales rank within D&D, with their current sales rank overall in all books:
1. Player's Handbook #66 in books
2. Volo's Guide #178
3. DMG #212
4. Monster Manual #217
5. Starter Set #807
6. Sword Coast Adventurer's Guide #1881
7. DM Screen #3001
8. Storm King's Thunder #3465
9. Curse of Strahd #3788
10. Hoard of the Dragon Queen #5544
11. Princes of the Apocalypse #6240
12. Out of the Abyss #8969
13. The Rise of Tiamat #9400
Now we can't glean detailed info from that, but it does tell us some important things. One, the core three are still selling incredibly well after two and a half years, and the Starter Set seems to be selling pretty well too.
I'm a bit surprised to see the Sword Coast selling above and beyond all of the story arcs. I'm also a bit surprised to see Storm King's Thunder fall back with the pack so quickly...its only been out a few months. I wonder what it looked like within a month of coming out.
Volo's is selling well, but what remains to be seen is whether it sticks around as another "core book" (so to speak) or dwindles away like the story arcs.
Anyhow, looking at this list it really makes me think that an expansion book is imminent. I mean, they core books are selling so well, so why not add a fourth core book? Wouldn't an Unearthed Arcana/PHB 2 (by whatever name) have at least the potential to be another perennial big seller?
And if Sword Coast is holding up better than the story arcs, why not do more setting books?
What I find interesting with this statement is the phrase "keep up," as if D&D books are collectible items that one must keep up with. Maybe that is how most feel, but does it have to be that way? Do we need to keep up and have a complete set? And a further question: Does producing more books negatively impact sales of core books?
I think one of the valid arguments that people who want more product make (I'm not talking about the minimalist plus types like myself, but the folks who want 2E-4E style glut) is that you don't need to buy everything, just buy what appeals to you. I would argue that, at the least, there's room for more without glutting the market or overwhelming anyone.
I think a lot of folks do buy books to collect/read.
The other side of this is that Pathfinder seems to be doing just fine with their glut, and after 8ish years. So it might simply be a stylistic thing: how you want the brand to look in terms of output?
It does seem that WotC is taking an approach similar to board games, with story arcs instead of expansions. Now of course the difference is that expansions tend to augment the core board game, whereas story arcs don't really have re-play value. The Sword Coast book and Volo's Guide are the only books they've produced since the core three that have more of a true expansion quality, and presumably the "mechanical expansion" coming out later this year (maybe) would do that in a major way.
So maybe they're thinking:
Two story arcs per year
One minor expansion per year
One major expansion per three years
That makes sense to me.
pkt77242
Explorer
We most likely are getting a major expansion book (similar to a PHB2 but not titled that) in the fall.
Enevhar Aldarion
Hero
Ever since 5th Ed released I have said the same thing just about every time release frequency comes up. Three books a year is decent and the most I would want to see is a four-book-a-year schedule: one book every quarter/three months. For me that would be two campaign books, a player resource book and a setting book every year.
Ilbranteloth
Explorer
I pulled together a similar list a few months ago, can't remember which thread though. It would be interesting to see the change in that time though...
Personally, I think that CoS might point to a future opportunity. First, it's holding up well. Second, they released a number of AP before doing the SCAG to tie them together. If it were me, releasing an AP in a different campaign as a test for a potential future sourcebook would be one way to go.
So I think many of those "keeping up" are those playing the APs. I have them all, but haven't run any of them. I use them more as sourcebooks.
I think that more books won't impact the sales of the core books. But they probably would impact the sales of the prior non-core book. The more copies you can sell of a given release, the more profitable it is. You've already paid for the development, and larger print runs get better rates. In the past (particularly the TSR years), there were periods where there was something released every month. What I think happened is that the RPG market was growing quickly enough that it masked the fact that they were cannibalizing their own sales. While you'll never reach 100% penetration, where everybody buys every book, you can increase margin and profit.
To look at it a different way - if each product costs $50,000 to manufacture, and sells wholesale for $25, then the first 2,000 copied recoup your cost. After that, each sale is a profit. If your typical sales are 500 units/month, then it takes 4 months to recoup your costs and start making money. For the sake of this argument, we'll say there's a fixed market, that is, you always sell 500 units/month.
If you release your next product 4 months after the last one, then just as you are starting to make money, you shift a chunk of your sales to the next product. The core book sales remain the same - new players need those regardless. But you also find that 7 or 8 months down the road you've saturated your market. That is, instead of selling 500 units, you're selling 400 or 300 units. Releasing a new product then bumps you back up to your 500 units/month. You'll still cannibalize some of the older book, but it will still continue to sell over time.
Obviously it's not that simple, but back when TSR was releasing so many products, sales were good, but they weren't making a profit because the next product was taking the sales dollars and they were essentially competing with themselves. Obviously there were a number of other things at play, but it's not uncommon for a company to stumble when they shift from exponential growth in a new industry to a market that has plateaued.
I would be one of those, but there has been a lot of sourcebook material in the APs, which have also been produced in a way that it's very easy to pull just a section of the adventure out to drop in a different campaign. WotC business model for D&D isn't the only one, obviously, and Pathfinder has found one that works for them.
But WotC is a small part of a very large company. So they have different requirements for their business, and really what makes D&D valuable to Hasbro is the brand. The fact that they can do video games, comics, movies, I think I recall hearing about a potential TV show in development at one point. Now I don't think Hasbro has any interest nor direct input into the business model of WotC in regards to D&D. I think they have indirect input in that they have sales/profit goals or requirements, and it's up to the WotC team to meet those.
Of course, #66 in books (not RPGs, not games, but all books) is amazing 2 1/2 years later. And I think with all of the UA articles being released, another Core book of some sort is likely, although it's quite possible those rules could be presented as a campaign book too.
BTW - have you ever looked at the top 100 at Amazon?
https://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-books-Amazon/zgbs/books/ref=pd_dp_ts_b_1#1
The PHB is #61 right now, and there are very few books that aren't less than 6 months to 1 year old, much less 2 1/2. There are a few older ones, but not many. The Pathfinder books I looked at were in the 30,000+ range (although Amazon may not be their primary outlet).
darjr
I crit!
No. Magic makes WotC a very big part of Hasbro. D&D is a small but important part of WotC. In fact there were a few quarters were Magic helped keep Hasbro in the red, as far as I remember.
I think WotC and in turn Hasbro, have big hopes for D&D, the movie being the primary example, and it was D&D as a property that turned around the Board Game division of WotC. So I think WotC and Hasbro think D&D is important.
I think WotC and in turn Hasbro, have big hopes for D&D, the movie being the primary example, and it was D&D as a property that turned around the Board Game division of WotC. So I think WotC and Hasbro think D&D is important.
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LordEntrails
Hero
One thing I take note of in the recent Forbes interview, is that Mike talked about how a glut of player option books actually hurts the number of new customers. Given the strong sales of the PHB, I suspect WotC will be very concerned with anything that might negatively impact the sales of the PHB and be interpreted as raising the barrier to entry.
Though even though I would like a PHB2 (by some other name!), I still think it's a solid 2 years before we get such.
Though even though I would like a PHB2 (by some other name!), I still think it's a solid 2 years before we get such.
Jester David
Hero
It won't be required to play to the same degree as the DMG or the Monster Manual, both of which are selling half as many copies as the PHB.
A big expansion probably will sell well. Initially and over time. The problem is a third or fourth big expansion. A single big expansion will sell initially and over time as the clear expansion. But when you get a third or fourth book it created competition and confusion.
(Try asking a dozen Pathfinder players what book to buy second or third as a player.)
Agreed. But not everyone. Or even most people.
And, really, the point of game books is to use them at the game table. If they're just to collect/ read they could be a reprint of an earlier edition book. Or something like Dungeonology.
Paizo expects a lot fewer sales. A LOT fewer. Like a tenth.
Plus they're putting Pathfinder on hold for a quarter to launch Starfinder; they're not going to do that for fun or on a whim. It takes waaaaay longer to make a whole new game than just a new book. They had to have started work on in late 2015 to be ready to announce in mid-2016. So Pathfinder had to have been lagging as far back as then. What are its sales like now?
Board games are probably the best business model. I've said that before.
Meeting once every other week and playing for four hours and you can get through a LOT more games of Catan and see a lot more permutations than D&D, but they don't have monthly or even annual expansions to Catan.
happyhermit
Adventurer
Interestingly, T.I.M.E Stories is pretty close to a direct analogue of the 5e strategy. Yet to be seen how it will work out in the long run for either.
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