To answer the “now what” PAIZO CEO question, I think it is important to begin with a clear understanding of what and why is PAIZO, post-Dungeon and Dragon publisher. The what and why can be immediately answered to a farethewell by reference to the PAIZO message board postings around the time when the Dungeon and Dragon print magazines were cancelled, 4e was announced, the GSL was delayed and PAIZO was deciding whether it would support 4e or go in a different direction.
PAIZO was and is energized to a substantial degree by a reaction to 4e and the GSL. Certainly, PAIZO and Pathfinder are more than only this now but they are not fully divorced from their reactionary origins as a non-WOTC affiliated or fully independent game company. To this day, PAIZO is the “anti-WOTC” to many and benefits from that perception, particularly among a large percentage of its fanbase.
This is the strategic environment in which PAIZO presently operates and as long as that environment does not change, PAIZO should do well simply by doing largely what it has been doing. When the strategic environment changes, PAIZO will need to respond to the new environment or it will gradually flounder.
The strategic environment will change when WOTC releases a new edition of D&D. With a new edition of D&D, WOTC will look to move beyond the 3e/4e schism. What is more, that schism will lose energy as 4e will no longer be immediately juxtaposed with 3e. The “editions wars” between 3e and 4e will be yesterday’s news as WOTC will look to rally consumers to the new edition. For PAIZO, this means the reactionary energy that has helped to push the company will be decreased and perhaps eliminated.
PAIZO needs to be forward planning for these events.
The loss of 4e as an immediate “opposite number” for Pathfinder will by no means doom PAIZO but they must account for the changed situation if they wish to continue to prosper. This involves two considerations.
First, PAIZO must hold their audience in the face of a new edition of D&D.
Attrition of the Pathfinder fanbase in the face of a new edition of D&D is inevitable but if managed need not be crippling. The key to limiting attrition is to counter the new edition of D&D, not immediately for that would be a likely unwinnable fight, but soon thereafter. PAIZO must renew itself only shortly after D&D renews itself and PAIZO must do so in an equally significant way – only minor changes will be perceived as such and will do little to limit attrition of the Pathfinder fanbase.
How should PAIZO reinvent Pathfinder? The possibilities are many. Obviously, since the goal is to hold the existing audience, a wholesale reinvention of Pathfinder would not fit the strategic situation. Rather, Pathfinder will need some rules amendments in a new edition that is largely backwards compatible with the existing Pathfinder game and, by necessary reference, 3x. The worst thing PAIZO could do would be to release a new edition of Pathfinder before there is a new edition of D&D. Nothing PAIZO can do will viscerally counter the “newness” of a new edition of D&D as well as a new edition of Pathfinder. PAIZO should be already working on a new edition of Pathfinder to be released shortly after there is a new edition of D&D.
A new edition of Pathfinder, however, will not by itself be sufficient to stop attrition of the PAIZO fanbase after a new edition of D&D is eventually released. PAIZO must also launch some BIG EVENT to draw and refocus attention to and on the Pathfinder setting of Golarion at the same time a new edition of Pathfinder is launched. Again, the possibilities are many and beyond the scope of this posting. Planning for the BIG EVENT should, however, be immediately underway. Fan postings to PAIZO’s message boards can greatly aid the process, continuing something of a tradition, but the urge to launch something “inutterably cool” before a new edition of Pathfinder is launched in response to a new edition of D&D must be absolutely resisted.
Second, PAIZO must “breakout” as more than the publisher of an alternative to D&D.
The present strategic situation makes any “breakout” unnecessary and ill advised. In the current strategic environment, PAIZO is doing well without the need to be more than what it presents itself to be. When the strategic situation changes with the release of a new edition of D&D, PAIZO cannot simply stand pat, even with a new edition of Pathfinder and a BIG EVENT. This is so because, as noted above, attrition of PAIZO’s fanbase is inevitable and can only be managed, not completely avoided. A new edition of D&D will negatively impact PAIZO, even with a new edition of Pathfinder and a BIG EVENT. How badly remains to be seen but PAIZO would be ill advised to rest on its laurels or be too complacent.
How can PAIZO “breakout” after a new edition of D&D is released? One large factor constraining PAIZO’s ability to do so will be the need to launch the new edition of Pathfinder and the BIG EVENT. Necessarily, any “breakout” must occur after the new edition of Pathfinder and the BIG EVENT. However, it should occur within 18 months thereafter, at most, for purposes of maximizing momentum from the new edition and BIG EVENT. Planning should be immediately underway.
In broad terms, the nature of the “breakout” is clear – the “breakout” must “break” PAIZO “out” of the position of providing just an alternative or substitute for D&D. The “breakout” should not involve Pathfinder or its setting of Golarion. See first point above. As long as PAIZO is predominantly the company of Pathfinder, it will struggle to remain competitive for consumer dollars with D&D, particularly a new edition of D&D. While the current strategic environment allows PAIZO to successfully compete (on its own economic terms/scale), as noted, a new edition of D&D will fundamentally change the strategic environment, likely to one far less easy to manage for PAIZO because the energy derived from the 3e/4e schism will be markedly decreased or absent. While it may be easy or comfortable to dismiss the vital role this energy plays in PAIZO’s present success, simply because there are other factors also in play, to do so would be problematic to effective strategic planning.
More specifically, the nature of the “breakout” depends in large measure on how PAIZO sees itself and its future as a business organization. If PAIZO simply “is what it is” and is happy solely to remain so, there will be no “breakout” and Paizo will by one degree or another be diminished when a new edition of D&D is someday released.
PAIZO has been largely reactive in the three most significant events in its history. WOTC, not PAIZO, decided to outscource the print publication of Dungeon and Dragon magazines, giving PAIZO its first mission as a company. WOTC, not PAIZO, decided to discontinue the print publication of Dungeon and Dragon magazines, forcing Paizo to find a new mission. WOTC, not PAIZO, drafted the GSL that pushed PAIZO to Pathfinder as a standalone RPG. PAIZO’s genius has been in reacting and adapting, doing so in an environment where such was immediately possible – setting up printing operations, switching to producing Adventure Paths and launching a standalone RPG. In the environment that will exist with the release of a new edition of D&D, there is no such clear course. Being reactive will not be possible. PAIZO must, instead, couple a reaction (see first point above) with a proactive “breakout.” The business needs to evolve to continue with a new edition of Pathfinder and a related BIG EVENT, but must also look to some new direction.
The new direction, as stated, depends on how PAIZO will seek to understand its mission. However, a few possibilities can be ruled out: Book publishing – been there, done that – and its hardly new as a idea for a game company. Accessories – cards, game aides, miniatures etc. – same refrain.
The idea that most immediately presents itself, given that PAIZO is a RPG game company, is a brand extension into some new game(s). This could take any number of forms. Fantasy Flight Games offers one model (boardgames). Privateer Press offers another (miniature games). Point of fact, WOTC offers its own model (cardgames). The point is not to suggest any one option but to note that there are other companies who have executed variations on the “breakout” theme, companies who have moved beyond just RPGs, more or less drastically. What can PAIZO do in a similar fashion other than “me too-ing” it, as in the above illustrations? That is beyond the scope of this already lengthy post.
Nuff said. Certainly, PAIZO has the talent, creativity and ambition such that I look forward to their success in the future. I am certain of two things – whatever they decide to do will be of high quality and it will be surprising. I look forward to being pleased and surprised.
GVD
