Following up on a (somewhat) heated discussion about whether or not we'll see revised core rulebooks in 2024, I thought it was high time for a new poll (i did a similar one a year or two ago).
NOTE: THIS IS NOT WHAT YOU WANT, BUT WHAT YOU THINK WILL HAPPEN.
Here is a list of reasons why I think it likely that we do. In no particular order:
- Core rulebooks are the biggest sellers. While 5E is selling like no other edition, and presumably this includes every book, there is nothing like core rulebooks as far as sales go. In fact, this was a major aspect of the "edition treadmill" of past editions: You publish the core rulebooks to start the edition, then endless splats and other supplements until, after long diminishing returns, you exhaust the major aspects of D&D canon. One of the reasons 5E is so successful is that it has taken a different route, a "less is more" approach with 3-5 hardcovers per year and very few secondary (non-hardcover) products. Compare this to 15+ hardcovers in the peak years of 3.5E and 4E, and as many as 70 (!) total supplements in 1995, the height of 2E (precipitating TSR's crash and sale of D&D to WotC two years later).
So while the bulk of the old ways no longer apply, core rulebooks remain strong sellers (as of this writing, the Player's Handbook is #171 among all books on Amazon and still dips into the top 100 now and then, I believe; it is also the #2 among D&D books, just behind the latest, Ravenloft).
- Revised Core Rulebooks Don't Compete with but Replace the 2014 Versions. They won't compete with them, but replace them. Meaning, all the people that would have bought the 2014 version will buy the revised version in 2024. Added to those folks are the many people who will buy a revised version to replace their own 2014 version, which is a substantial number, meaning in addition to ongoing sales, potentially (tens of) millions of old players. Meaning, unlike the current core boooks, it has two customer bases: New people coming into the hobby and people wanting the revised version.
- It will be 10 Years. 10 years is an epoch in gaming time - it will be 20% of D&D history. Simply on this fact alone, revised rulebooks make sense. That's 10 years of tens of millions of players and hundreds of millions of games. That's lots of time to figure out what works well and what needs tweaking. While the 5E rules are probably the least complained-about D&D ruleset, at least that I can remember going back to the early 80s, there are still, inevitably, going to be things that need work. Furthermore, there have been--and will be, over the next few years--new rules, subclasses, and little fiddly bits that can be added to the core rules. Meaning...
- There's Lots to Revise. Not just errata, but all the little bits that have been published along the way, as well as areas in desperate need of attention: e.g. the ranger, and probably the monk and sorcerer; subclasses, races/heritages, alignment, etc.
- The 50th Anniversary is Too Good an Opportunity to Pass Up. I would guess that, in addition to the revised core rules, WotC comes out with some sort of commemorative product, maybe something like a 50 Years of D&D book ala the Ars & Arcana, or Worlds of Dungeons & Dragons, etc. But again, with the spike in sales that new core rulebooks offer, I don't see why what is, in the end, a business, would pass up such an opportunity. And it is an opportunity.
- Consumerism, Baby! For better or worse, we live in a consumer culture. Anyone on the iPhone treadmill knows this; each year, there's a new iPhone, and while I don't follow it closely enough (I still use a 7), it seems they alternate minor and major changes. It would be naive of us to think that Apple is offering us their most advanced technology; the whole point of the yearly phone is to keep people buying. They probably have the tech for the 15 or later already worked out, and are just inching along to keep countless people in the upgrade cycle. Now D&D isn't the iPhone and WotC isn't Apple, but Hasbro is a large corporation and, in the end, they are beholden to shareholders.
- Socio-cultural Changes. Regardless of where you stand on he various "hot topics," we can all agree that some tweaks should probably be made, if only to clarify intentions and difference between fantasy and reality, and further separate D&D ideas from real world baggage, and perhaps emphasize different modes and styles of play. 2021 is seemingly a different world from 2014, and who knows what 2024 will be like, but the times they are a-changin. Meaning, if nothing else, it is a good time to present a D&D that is truly of the 21st century and one that reflects the current player base, while still, hopefully, retaining the traditional qualities that formed the game into what it is today.
- Publish New Books While at a High Rather Than at a Low. This might sound counter-intuitive, but as @Ruin Explorer said, it is better to come out with a revision while things are going well. Not to mention, with 50+ million people allegedly playing D&D, that's a lot more potential sales than if, say, D&D declines and there's 10 million fans.
I could go on, but those outline some basics.
Oh yeah, here are further explanations for the poll "Yes" options:
- "Mild" - Mostly Cosmetic 50th Anniversary revisions ("5.1 to 5.2"). New art, new covers, maybe some re-organizing of content, and a few additions from the past decade of D&D: maybe a few subclasses, subraces (or heritages), he new rules for racial ability scores and alignment. Meaning, nothing more than cosmetics and midl changes.
- "Moderate" - Many small to moderate changes ("5.3-5.5"). As above, but revisions of certain classes, and maybe some other tweaks and fiddly bits, but still not structural changes.
- "Major": A bonafide "6E" (by whatever name). A brand new edition. This would almost certainly be more like 1E->2E than 3.5E->4E or 4E->5E, but it would be something more than #2 above.
Which one do I think will occur? In order of likelihood: 2, 1, 3. I think 2 is more likely than 1 because there are a lot of things to change and adjust, and even if nothing major changes, in total it will feel like something in the range of "5.3" to "5.5."
As for 3, I think WotC is out of the "new edition" business and will instead go for "revisions," at least as long as the current Golden Age lasts (and they never do). Whether that is 10, 15, or 20 years from now, who knows. But 5E is booming and chances are it won't crash before 2024. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, a true new edition would have far more risk than reward. A new edition is not needed, just a few tweaks and polishing.
So what do you think?
