D&D 5E Speculating about the future of the D&D industry/community in a post-5E world

[Werebat]

Wow. Some really interesting discussion going on here.

I strongly think the competition these two companies (WotC and Paizo) are engaged in is pure gold for the consumers (players and DMs/GMs).

I think Paizo is, as others have said, more connected to gamers in general. Yeah, the dev team at WotC are great, but they aren't calling all of the shots and I think it shows.

Paizo's business model and overall appearance seems more successful and professional looking. For example, the Paizo website and message boards look a lot better than the WotC message boards -- wait, does WotC even HAVE message boards anymore? Paizo's website looks better than ENworld (sorry ENworld), but...

But I notice that the community on the Paizo boards can be...

Confrontational? A bit thin-skinned? Or am I imagining that?

 

[Hussar]

What D&D games are you referring to?

As to your other point, are we still reflecting on D&D's popularity vs. Pathfinder in the 5E era or are we comparing Pathfinder to every RPG ever?

Paizo must be doing something right or Pathfinder would not have been the #1 game for the last year. It's popularity is just fine.

Number one in a pool with no DnD is a very small pool.

 

[Branduil]

The new edition of D&D will always bring complications for it’s competitors, and Pathfinder et al are just that, ultimately. Their fans have been well catered for, but whatever weakness these games have in comparison to the ’new shiny’ will be highlighted now - not least when they are up against the major brand of the hobby.

For me, Pathfinder is just a complicated version of D&D now, and I’ve never liked the cartoon artwork. The design of the massive 500+ page core rules book may also come into question, while their starter set is more expensive than that provided by D&D too. There were marketing reasons for all that when they were originally produced, but that will be the cursory inspection of many wavering or casual fans.

To me, the major reason for supporting Pathfinder was because of the regularity of finding gaming groups - a significant inhibitor in many other rpgs. I was also a fan of how they generally listened to their fan base and basically gave them what they wanted, but if D&D comes back in force then these advantages go too.

The question as to Pathfinder’s future IS a speculation, of course, but I do feel that most games operate in cycles of popularity. Many choose to recycle themselves with new editions or highly anticipated supplements to keep current fans interested. If Pathfinder is heading for a typical ’tail end’ of their current cycle and decide they need to reboot, then Paizo will have to think carefully. As it stands, it is there and still selling as far as I know, but I’m not really sure what the selling point over D&D is now, beyond simple brand loyalty.

If 5e is a big success, I can see Paizo eventually releasing a 5e-clone Pathfinder 2e with the fixed Bound Accuracy math but with more crunch options.

 

[Gundark]

If 5e is a big success, I can see Paizo eventually releasing a 5e-clone Pathfinder 2e with the fixed Bound Accuracy math but with more crunch options.

Depends, I could see a few scenarios if 5e is big and cuts into Paizo's profits substantially. If 5e is OGL then why waste resources on development of PF 2? Just release AP's for PF and 5e.

5e isn't OGL then maybe we'll see a PF 2.

Pathfinder has been growing for quite some time. I think we'll see the bubble burst eventually, but I don't think we'll see them hurt too bad. I actually don't expect D&D to be the number one seller quarter after quarter, the 5e naysayers will claim that 5e has "failed", but the rpg doesn't need to be #1 every quarter for long term growth.

 

[DaveMage]

I strongly think the competition these two companies (WotC and Paizo) are engaged in is pure gold for the consumers (players and DMs/GMs).

Yep. However, D&D is shifting it's emphasis from the D&D RPG to the D&D brand, so there won't be as much pressure on direct RPG competition. Pathfinder, of course, is also expanding it's brand (MMO, card game), so the two companies will continue compete, but not necessarily as focused on the RPG space.

 

[wedgeski]

With WotC having swallowed the diversification pill, what they really should be doing is crushing Pathfinder under the weight of massive D&D product saturation and marketing. This is Hasbro we're talking about, versus a competitor that had to crowd-fund an MMO for its own game. From a commercial point of view, WotC should be laughing manically as they crush Paizo under their boot.

That they haven't, and probably can't, says bundles about the weirdness of our little marketplace and the relative strengths of the two companies in question. To me it looks like Paizo have committed fans with huge amounts of buy-in and deep pockets. I can't honestly see them being tempted back to D&D unless there are many more casual roleplayers in Paizo's demographic than I think.

 

[Halivar]

From a commercial point of view, WotC should be laughing manically as they crush Paizo under their boot.

That they haven't, and probably can't, says bundles about the weirdness of our little marketplace and the relative strengths of the two companies in question.

Or, maybe, it says they aren't interested in doing so? The PF vs. D&D football game exists only at our tables and message boards; Paizo and WotC aren't playing it.

 

[wedgeski]

Or, maybe, it says they aren't interested in doing so? The PF vs. D&D football game exists only at our tables and message boards; Paizo and WotC aren't playing it.

Two things about this: first, I honestly don't care all that much, and second, I don't believe it for a second. I'm sure the staff at both companies get on great (because they're actual adults), but the fight for market share is real, and as gamers we should be happy about that.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

To me it looks like Paizo have committed fans with huge amounts of buy-in and deep pockets. I can't honestly see them being tempted back to D&D unless there are many more casual roleplayers in Paizo's demographic than I think.

That definitely accords with my experience of PF/Paizo fans. They own a LOT of Paizo stuff, and they don't want to run games that aren't AP-based, by and large (no judgement, I can understand that). Plus they probably have no urge to buy new setting-books or the like.

I think the only possible way to woo them with 5E, really, would be to get Paizo to do APs for 5E. The one other thing I know about Paizo/PF fans (just my experience here, of course), is that few of them truly love PF as a system - many of them want something a bit less clunky/elaborate - so I think they'd be "down for" 5E (the DMs particularly), mechanically.

EDIT - Of course, the only way I can see Paizo doing this is if they think they can make $$$$$$ without destroying their own IP or something, which would mean another OGL.

So if WotC can somehow convince Paizo to do APs for 5E, and maybe even a setting book (more for the 5E mechanic versions of PF stuff - 5E backgrounds to replace PF traits, etc.) and/or other PF/Golarion-specific stuff, THEN you'd see them being tempted back.

But that's the only way without the Hasbro-style massive-marketing-based crushing, which I assume is too expensive for WotC.

 

[Reynard]

I can't honestly see them being tempted back to D&D unless there are many more casual roleplayers in Paizo's demographic than I think.

Or, you know, we're tired of the super crunchy version of D&D that is Pathfinder. Don't underestimate the power of system fatigue. It is is hard game to run, especially the way the APs are written -- important info is buried in the text. This is on purpose (I know because I asked) because Paizo knows many of their customers enjoy reading the APs and don't necessarily play them.