Re-examining Sure Strike and Careful Attack

I think adding two times stat modifier attack bonus to a to hit will result in 30th level Rangers that often only miss on a one.

Orcus or Ancient Red Dragon AC 48

30th level Ranger +9 Dex, +9 Dex a second time, +15 level, +5 magic weapon, +2 bow proficiency, +1 battlefield experience

70% chance to hit the toughest AC creatures in the MM without any sort of party synergy bonuses.


The next highest AC in the MM is 45 (85% chance to hit) and it drops after that.


A house rule should be balanced at all levels.
Hmm, we aren't that high level, probably never will be, but I see your point. I'll give this some thought... maybe a +1 attack bonus per 2 points of damage bonus, or keep it a flat rate even though that strikes me as an increasingly worse deal despite the possible percentages.
 

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Careful attack is pretty much just useless. Sure Strike does at least have a place- Heavy Blade Opportunity makes it a good choice for sticky defenders once they reach Paragon Tier.
 


Second, I placed a limitation on Twin Strike: In order for the Ranger to make a 2nd attack, he must target a different opponent, no more than 2 squares away from the primary target. He may not attack the same target twice with this power.
What about TWF rangers?
 


It's interesting that a third party designer ran the numbers and found that by 30th level, players are missing +5 to hit.

He didn't take into account many other game mechanics such as synergy bonuses from other PCs.

For example, a Cleric that gives a +2 to hit bonus with Righteous Brand at level 1 might be giving a +4 or +5 bonus to hit with it at level 30.

Many PCs can slide foes into flanking positions (or shift themselves into flanking positions) a lot more often at high levels.

Some PCs have up to 4 defenses they can attack. By level 30, it starts to become obvious (minimally via Monster checks) which defenses might be lowest. And many higher level creatures have differences there of 5 or more (and sometimes as high as 10 different).

There's a lot more ongoing damage, a lot more half damage on a miss, a lot more area effect powers, a lot more conditions, a lot more movement on the board, a lot more extra abilities/damage from magic item powers, more modifiers to saving throws, etc.

Granted, the NPCs have a lot more of this as well.

But, it's not just about to hit percentage.

Note: His AC 44 comment is a bit off. There are 5 AC 44 or higher creatures in the MM. 3 of them are solos. With the PCs having 5 turns per round and the creature (basically) only having one, it is ok for that creature to have high defenses. It will be getting attacked a LOT per round. In fact, out of the 30 odd monsters in the MM with AC 40 or higher, the vast majority of them are Elites or Solos. PCs will not typically be outnumbered or even evenly matched numerically by these types of foes.
 


All your examples really are circumstantial, rather than raw stats. Remember, all those things are available to PCs at level 1, too. We're talking raw to-hit.
But if you're only looking at the raw stats you'll never get a complete picture.

This reminds me of those weird arena fight scenarios without any terrain features where two pcs trade blows until one falls over.
It's something that will never happen in a real game and thus any data you get from analyzing that scenario is meaningless.

The only thing that is interesting about the 'missing' +5 bonus is that the designers obviously assume that circumstantial benefits will close the gap.
 

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