1. But the game world isn't real. When Imaro decides that the Emo Caves no longer have level 2 goblins because of some external event (not because the PCs are level 5, of course), Imaro ALSO was the one who decided that the external event happened. His choice may not be 100% unbounded (prior in game events might force his hand), but his choice is very close to free.
Urm.....Let us assume, for a moment, that the Emo Caves might have Level 1 goblins when the PCs are level 5 as the result of campaign events, or level 10 giants. Change occurs, but the only changes that "map" to the PCs in any form are those that they are either catalysts to or engineer (intentionally or not).
And, unless the PCs make an effort to make it so, these changes will map to PC-related criteria other than their level.....such as bounty hunters seeking the fighter who burned down the inn.
If the inn offers little bounty (i.e., is a poor inn), the hunters may well be inept in comparison to the PCs. If the inn is owned by someone very wealthy, the hunters may well exceed the PCs "level appropriate" threshold.
2. Unfortunately he's wed himself to a design paradigm in which he cannot decide which external events occur based on a desire to create good gameplay. But what other criteria is he going to use?
Good game world.
3. If he uses "realism" or "what really happened," which I'm going to count as standing in for "some objective criteria other than a desire to match player level to challenge difficulty," then logically he should occasionally have things happen which wreck his game. In real life, sometimes people catch terminal diseases, totally unavoidably, and die. In real life, sometimes people go places that logically should be safe, and are murdered in ways they could not avoid. Lots of things like this happen. And yet they don't generally happen in sandbox campaigns.
Sure they do. At least, they do to the extent that they do in the real world, although the PCs often have better resources than we do in the real world to deal with those problems.
I have had PCs get cholera.
I have had PCs die in prison.
I have had PCs die because they were unable to escape natural disasters, or because they went down the wrong alley at the wrong time.
I have had PCs die in these sorts of ways both as DM and as player, and I have no interest in a game where, should my choices lead me in that direction, that sort of thing doesn't happen.
4. The underlying issue is: If you're not adjusting the setting to fit the PCs, why is it that game-appropriate scenarios keep playing out? Isn't it awfully coincidental that your game world, allegedly built upon a premise of realism and objectivity, just coincidentally happens to create good game outcomes? Real life doesn't do this.
Really? How many insta-kills have
you encountered lately? There is at least one excellent thread on EN World about real people whose lives really did play out like adventure yarns.
As another aside, consider the following:
For every CR 20 threat in the world, there are 10 CR 19 threats.
For every CR 19 threat in the world, there are 10 CR 18 threats.
Etc., right down the line.
Now add the obvious: Bigger challenges tend to leave bigger "footprints" on the world. I.e., most anyone in the world knows what a lion or a polar bear is, but few of us know what a pine martin is. Hence, it is easier to prepare for/avoid polar bears than it is to do the same with pine martins.
All-level play encounters proportionally more low-level threats than high-level threats. As PCs make a name for themselves, they come to the attention of the movers and shakers of the world/region/whatever. I.e., they cease to be pine martins and become closer to polar bears. People start taking them into account in their plans. This is why, prior to 3e, high-level play tended to mean more politics and fortress-building than orc hunting.
Of course, more powerful characters also have better resources to seek out more powerful threats. But more powerful threats might mean (1) taking on the Vampire King, (2) trying to carve out a kingdom, (3) trying to end poverty, (4) etc. The pieces on the board haven't really changed as much as they've changed position.
In one AD&D campaign, for example, play began with a known vampire as a power broker in a gigantic city. As play continued, by about 3rd-5th level, the PCs began to want things that they knew the vampire could provide. They entered a business relationship with him, and actually "sold" him a few levels in order to gain his support against other factions. The vampire became, essentially, the setting's "Godfather".....and one who would eventually seek to eliminate the PCs when they were becoming too powerful for him to control.
Its almost like your game world is controlled by some semi-benevolent hegemon who tailors reality to the needs of a few specific inhabitants. If that's not the case, why does it look so much like that is the case?
Obviously, you are talking about your game world, or someone else's game world.
5. But no one addresses that underlying issue. Instead, they debate hypotheticals instead of debating the question raised by the hypothetical.
Obviously, you are ignoring every concrete, really-from-a-game example, as well as many responses in this thread.
6. So we get treated to lengthy essays (almost as lengthy as mine) that basically read like classic psychological texts on blaming victims.
I find it somewhat interesting that, as soon as it is suggested that the players determine what challenges they face, they become "victims". Perhaps, from some wonky angle, you could rationally consider the (not real) PCs as "victims", but the players are not.
I also have a problem with distinctions without a difference ("You can't say that X and Y are the same in terms of player freedom! X is totally different than Y! Its blue!"), but I don't think that's getting anywhere as a discussion.
And yet, when that distinction was made (I assume you are referring to my X/Y analysis of Mallus' post some ways back), not only was the question raised never answered, but it was never addressed. Indeed, you are doing nothing more than raising a straw man here to claim that previous terms to demonstrate a distinction are as phony as what you are presenting.
I think my friend, you are perhaps ignoring the answers.
Indeed.
Would I be right, Cadfan, in believing that you advocate the occasional fudged die roll?
RC