The problem with this is by holding off you offset the potential gain by the possibility that you would fail to get to use the power at all. I exactly calculated the odds of using the power. There is no way to argue it's use gets exponentially better as you gain con, it only gets marginally better and it's margin is decreasing.
1. Yes its marginally better and its margin is increasing. That is the definition of exponential gain.
2. You do not offset the potential gain by the possibility that you would fail to be able to use it.
Remember: As you "exactly calculated", the chance that you are unable to use the power is reducing at a
negative marginal rate. And the payoff from using it on a more important hit is increasing at an
increasing marginal rate
Your actions and hit points do not change in relative value over time. The game scales in a linear fashion, it's just as important to not get stunned at 4th level as it is at 14th as it is at 24th[
"Over time" as in "over time in the battle" not as in "over levels". Your last hit point is increasingly marginally more valuable than your second to last, just as your 1001th hit point is decreasingly marginally more valuable than your 1000th hit point.
This means that hits that take away more life, or restrict actions(preventing you from taking away enemies life, prolonging the encounter thereby costing you and your friends more life) are increasingly marginally more costly than those that don't. As you shift your payout from "anything i can take because i might not be able to use it" to "anything i want because the bonus is so high i can nearly turn a critical into a normal hit" its marginally utility is increasing.
Since frequently monsters are unleashing their encounter powers early, this is a lot less benefit than you're trying to imply.
Only if your +4 ensures that you can use the power on that encounter power that goes off early, which it can't. The argument that i stated was that there is a bit of "stopping an attack early has an increasing marginal value" but that it was offset by the chance you might stop something better later.
Now if the better comes immediately, then your return is strictly linear in raw hit points and actions. But as you remember from our discussion above, the attacks that do more damage and restrict actions have increasing marginal cost, so your expected return on the block has an increasing marginal return when the chance of a block is increased in a linear fashion such every point of con you put into it has an increasing marginal return
O.K. So lets cover some things
1. If high damage powers come sooner there is an increasing marginal return on con
2. if high damage powers come later there is an increasing marginal return on con so long as you are able to judge what is and what isn't a high damage attack. Well, since the power lets you judge after damage has been rolled, i think we have a pretty easy way to determine what is and isn't a high damage attack.
This argument is repeated all over DnD forums, that still doesn't make it right and it's certainly not mathematically correct. You're totally ignoring that in most uses of wand it fails to change the outcome of the attack. By about a 7-1 ratio on average.
This is only true if
1. You don't have any clue of what the enemies defenses are
2. You don't have any clue of what you rolled(which only happens if your DM isn't playing by the rules)
and falls to the big irony of
3. As you increase your dexterity, the uncertainty inherent in the system is reduced further.
Even with an 18 dex, the wand is only useful 1 time in 5. The fallacious logic that it's on "the big attack" is dreadful reasoning since few if any monsters are slain by one big attack
Higher damage has an increasing marginal utility, especially early in the round. With a +4 the wand is useful 1 in 5 times, and with a +5 its 1/4 times... But wizards make a lot of attack rolls especially with their AoE dailies
In the same 5 encounters the +1 of staff will likely block 3-4 hits by itself and the staff interrupt will block another 3-4. Blocking 8-9 attacks is massively more valuable than landing an additional attack (even if it's your big daily).
In the same 5 encounters a +4 Con staff will likely block 3-4 hits and the +1 will block maybe 1 or 2(unless the wizards is the focus of every attack in an encounter for 4 rounds per encounter) You have your wizard absorbing roughly half the hits of an entire 5 encounter day to make your 3-4 hits work from the plus 1.
You're quite mistaken here as well. We do care about holding monsters as long as possible but these are not exponential gains, they are slightly increasing marginal gains but this still ignores the fact that +1 more orb only impacts about 1 encounter in 7. That's the reality. The math you're quoting pretends there is an increase in utility for holding something 10+ rounds.
No, the math assumes there is an increase in utility for holding something roughly 7-10 rounds and then after that, as i've noted it doesn't matter because you're way beyond the ability to pump anything else.
Once again, marginally positive is still not exponential gains. +9 for wisdom will not benefit your pc as much as +3 con, +6 wisdom (probably even 3/7 or 4/6 if you consider the opportunity costs associated with having a wisdom + 9 wizard)
Once again, using made up numbers doesn't get you anywhere. How do you pump 6 wisdom and 3 con? You have a total of 6 points to allocate over your entire career in leveling up. You have literally no way of making a 20 wisdom 16 con wizard without having 13 or less intelligence.
Just because the marginal utility is increasing does not mean it has to increase forever and it does not mean that the utility you get out of adding a new one at a lower value is greater than the marginal utility of the one that is already increased.
Remember, you don't care if the marginal utilities are increasing when you're choosing between each one, you only care which margin is better at that point in time.
You're endlessly talking about opportunity costs but don;t take any of the inverse opportunity costs into account
An opportunity cost is "the value of the next best thing". So the inverse opportunity cost would be "the value of the next best thing which is the value of the thing that you were doing originally"
Which is the value that we were discussing the entire time.
Are you sure you know what you're talking about here?
If you play an orb wizard and try for lock down by raising wisdom above INT you're ignoring all the times you've missed by a roll of 1 and would have started an additional status effect.
Your strawman is appreciated, but i never, nor did anyone else, mention raising wisdom over int.
Um... NO, unless it's been errata'd it's a free action and it is applied before the roll. It is not an interrupt. This might explain your belief that it compares because that is not RAW and it most definitely is crippled by not being an interrupt.
Read the power again, and then read the RAW again. It is a free action, but you can use it after the roll.
this is pseudo math. Blatantly false and barely makes sense.
It might not make sense to you, but uncertainty, especially known uncertainty has real value.
pretty situational and definitely cheating if you don't have some means of targeting the creatures.
Its a blast, of course you have an ability of targeting the creatures, i just showed it to you!
P.S. There is a level 18 ring that lets you move your vision 1 over and many many abilities that let you or others move their line of sight originating.
Also, you can create the wall.
Or you can see them and then move behind a wall already made because that is what smart people do to avoid attacks.
If you couple ray of frost with wintertouched and lasting frost, you grant combat advantage to everyone in your party who takes wintertouched with every cold power. If they also have cold powers or a frost weapon you're talking about +5 damage on EVERY hit and +2(CA) on EVERY ATT (and sneak damage) for everyone. This is a massive combo.
If everyone takes wintertouched and has cold powers. Otherwise one guy takes vexing flanker(or distance advantage), or they use your encounter powers that grant CA(or theirs) and its almost useless.
are there hoards of players arguing t-wave is broken?
Well then, this would be a good reason to give it to the other builds then...
This is another very circumspect argument. There is no requirement for all secondary or tertiary ability scores to get equal treatment. The wizard description says secondarily on wis, dex and sometimes con. This implies that wis is the secondary stat. Is this bad?
1. I never said they should get equal treatment(though wizards did when they wrote all those design articles saying "we wanted to make all builds about as good as other builds")
2. What i did say was "you're wrong, they do indeed get a benefit"
who cares? this is totally anecdotal/quote]
You want me to compare the situations where its useful to those its not?
I shouldn't get both, that's what makes building pc's fun. You need to decide on your vision and tactics and build to suit.
Strawman again, no one said you should get both 3 at wills and an enounter teleport.
I am pressed for time, i might get some more in depth replies later
You claimed i was increasing the value of wizards. I was explaining that no, the value of wizards remained unchanged since the optimal build remained unchanged. What increased was the opportunity cost of that optimal build as the sub-optimal builds were made better.
Note, that doesn't make wizards better.
E.G. lets say you're playing a game with three options
Option A
Option B
Option C
Option A has a payout of 40, 50% of the time, 20 25% of the time, and 0 25% of the time
Option B has a payout of 10 100% of the time
Option C has a payout of 20 50% of the time and 0 50% of the time.
Option A is explicitly better than A and B.
If you make B into 20 100% of the time and option C into 25 75% of the time 10 25% of the time then Option A is still explicitly better than A and B.
Equilibrium in this game is A with a payout of 25 all the time. Nothing changed in your payout, the game defined by these options does not make you any more better off when options B and C got buffed.
So long as options B and C don't get buffed above A the class does not get any stronger.