Did WotC underestimate the Paizo effect on 4E?

[pawsplay]

Not many pundits anticipated the economic meltdown of late-2008 and the subsequent aftermath, with the exception of the "permabears" who are always screaming "the sky is falling" anyways. A broken clock is always right, two times every day.

That's just not true, really. Buffett is hardly a bear.

 

[ggroy]

That's just not true, really. Buffett is hardly a bear.

He was one of the few non-"chicken littles" that saw it coming.

 

[Umbran]

I wonder what basis for comparison you are using for placing Paizo in some "minor" league not ready for the big time game yet?

Paizo seems to have sales, yes. And a goodly sized staff, and some kinds of experience.

There's one thing Paizo hasn't done yet that many folks might consider required to cement their position: create their own game from the ground up, and have it sell well.

WotC, White Wolf, Steve Jackson Games, and some others - all these folks have demonstrated the ability to build their own and refresh, keeping themselves in a market that saturates fairly quickly. That's Paizo's next real hurdle.

 

[pawsplay]

Paizo seems to have sales, yes. And a goodly sized staff, and some kinds of experience.

There's one thing Paizo hasn't done yet that many folks might consider required to cement their position: create their own game from the ground up, and have it sell well.

WotC, White Wolf, Steve Jackson Games, and some others - all these folks have demonstrated the ability to build their own and refresh, keeping themselves in a market that saturates fairly quickly. That's Paizo's next real hurdle.

I think the tweaks to races and classes, the new classes in the APG, and the Golarion setting are parts of a strategy to brand the PFRPG. PFRPG is, essentially, D&D, but it's a flavor that Paizo would like associated with them.

 

[Reynard]

Paizo seems to have sales, yes. And a goodly sized staff, and some kinds of experience.

There's one thing Paizo hasn't done yet that many folks might consider required to cement their position: create their own game from the ground up, and have it sell well.

WotC, White Wolf, Steve Jackson Games, and some others - all these folks have demonstrated the ability to build their own and refresh, keeping themselves in a market that saturates fairly quickly. That's Paizo's next real hurdle.

Are you really suggesting that Paizo can't be considered a success unless they abandon their signature game and experiment with an unknown quantity?

 

[LurkMonkey]

Paizo seems to have sales, yes. And a goodly sized staff, and some kinds of experience.

There's one thing Paizo hasn't done yet that many folks might consider required to cement their position: create their own game from the ground up, and have it sell well..

But that is the magic of OGL. Since the game mechanics are open source, it allows them to concentrate on other things besides reinventing the wheel. Just as a programmer with a good idea doesn't have to come up with a new computer language to make his program work, Paizo and its 3pp allies have a base of robust proven mechanics to build upon.

Whether a majority of players like those mechanics or not, is irrelevant. The OGL will always be there. The fact that anyone will be able to plug into them legally will make them attractive no matter what 'bugs' they have. Paizo will have a lot of success building on the OGL, or at least that is my personal prediction. I also predict they will not break with OGL mechanics to the point where it could be considered a radically different gameset.

The two companies seem to be evolving into a PC vs. Apple rivalry scenario. Open source vs. proprietary 'languages'. Of course, in this scenario the 'Apple' analog is the bigger player, but IMO open-source mechanics have a definite appeal in the market, especially for the small 3rd-party publishers and outsider designers.

 

[jaerdaph]

WotC, White Wolf, Steve Jackson Games, and some others - all these folks have demonstrated the ability to build their own and refresh, keeping themselves in a market that saturates fairly quickly. That's Paizo's next real hurdle.

Paizo doesn't even have to acknowledge that hurdle, let alone jump it. Their situation is unique - they were the only ones in a position to produce a successful continuation of a prior edition of D&D and they did so. All the right pieces were in the right place for them, internally and externally. And it is extremely unlikely that will ever happen again for anyone.

 

[Jor-El]

Another thing to keep in mind about Paizo, is that most of the folks there used to work for WoTC, some as far back as with TSR before it was bought by WoTC.

So in a way, it kinda still is their game, it always has been.

 

[Umbran]

Are you really suggesting that Paizo can't be considered a success unless they abandon their signature game and experiment with an unknown quantity?

I make no claims on what others can and cannot consider "success". You make your own determination. However, I wouldn't fault someone for feeling that until Paizo cuts it chops on something entirely new, their own, then they aren't quite there yet.

I'd make an analogy to an author who writes only "shared world" stories, or only works with public domain worlds. They may be good writers, but until they do something uniquely their own, they're still not quite top-notch.

Paizo doesn't even have to acknowledge that hurdle, let alone jump it. Their situation is unique...

I think, eventually, they'll need to acknowledge and jump it, or stumble and never be a major player in the race again. Their starting situation was unique, but from this point on they are subject to the same market forces as every other game publisher out there.

Eventually, the market will be saturated with Pathfinder materials. That's the reality of the niche. They will not be able to sit on 3e's laurels forever if they want to maintain their market position and size as a company.

 

[LurkMonkey]

I make no claims on what others can and cannot consider "success". You make your own determination. However, I wouldn't fault someone for feeling that until Paizo cuts it chops on something entirely new, their own, then they aren't quite there yet.

I'd make an analogy to an author who writes only "shared world" stories, or only works with public domain worlds. They may be good writers, but until they do something uniquely their own, they're still not quite top-notch.

I would say that a lot of companies do quite well using shared content in MS-DOS even if they haven't created their own language.

I'd say Paizo isn't working a 'shared world' analogy. What the OGL covers is rules mechanics and a few stat sets for monsters after all. Instead of a 'shared world', think of it as a shared language. They are just using open source gaming code to underlie their quite original storylines.

I think, eventually, they'll need to acknowledge and jump it, or stumble and never be a major player in the race again. Their starting situation was unique, but from this point on they are subject to the same market forces as every other game publisher out there.

Eventually, the market will be saturated with Pathfinder materials. That's the reality of the niche. They will not be able to sit on 3e's laurels forever if they want to maintain their market position and size as a company.

I think they aren't sitting on 3e's laurels. They took the gaming rules covered by the OGL, adjusted them to eradicate a few of the worst 'bugs', and published them as an underlying technical manual to play their game. Now they are expanding on the OGL-derived code set with all new classes and rules, which, although new and unique, are still 'backwards compatable' to OGL material with a few minor tweaks. They also have kept 'their' version open source to encourage 3pp participation.

Also, Lisa Stevens has said that she wants Paizo to remain small and nimble. She has been employed by several of the Big Guys and endured their growing pains, and has seen what happens when a company gets too big in this field.

Will the market be saturated? Who knows? There's obviously plenty of room for expansion now. I don't think they will ever devise some new 'D13' mechanic just to have their own proprietal system, there's no need. As I mentioned in another post, the OGL is there, and it is a proven robust ruleset. They are doing what they love, making great stories. They are also free to cross-fertilize with the best ideas from 3pps past and present. They often use the monsters and templates from the Tome of Horror series and the Advanced Bestiary in their Adventure Paths. I'm sure as some of the other new publishing houses like Rite Publishing, LPJ Design, Open Design, and others begin to gather steam they will all riff off each other's ideas.

Paizo has a lot of veterans working for them. They've seen the pitfalls of too much splat. They've seen corporate bloat. I think they are in a sweet spot where they can craft the stories they want and remain masters of their own destiny.