Pathfinder 1E Pathfinder sales

[czak]

But there is data. We can debate how reliable the various data points are, but you really can't deny that ICV2 rankings or Amazon rankings or even anecdotal stories are data. Sure, they all have different degrees of accuracy and none represent perfect information, but they are all still data.

Another available point of data is one company flat out stating that their sales are higher. Again, not perfect information, same sort of things can be discussed (how do they know, are they mistaken, how long will they, release cycle, yadda yadda yadda).

 

[MerricB]

• ICv2 publishes quarterly charts on RPG sales. In Q2 2011, their chart indicated that sales of Pathfinder exceeded those of D&D4e for the first time.

One of the unusual things is the recent "tussle":

Q3 2010: Pathfinder and D&D tie
Q4 2010: D&D wins
Q1 2011: D&D wins
Q2 2011: Pathfinder wins

The strangest thing is D&D winning in Q1, 2011... because almost no D&D RPG products were released in that quarter. Was anything released for Pathfinder?

Cheers!

 

[Umbran]

No but statistics show that ICv2 is usually within in 1% of actual sales - not everytime, but they're numbers are usually very accurate, even though their selection data is not. So despite where the numbers come from they tend to be right...

On that one, assertion will not be sufficient. Citation, please?

 

[SteveC]

There can be a lot of things at work here, and as Merric points out, the situation has been very dynamic in the last few quarters. I think that a lot of folks are seeing exactly what they want to see. It's funny how we heard the same things during Q4 and Q1 when D&D had the number one ICV2 spot. Did Pathfinder somehow slip in popularity at that time? Not if you judged only by the rhetoric.

To my mind (and I'm as biased as anyone, I'll admit) WotC has seemed to largely cede the print market. They've drastically cut back the release schedule to the point where fans of 4e (like me) don't have anything to buy from them. I don't like that attitude, but it is there. If I'm looking to buy print materials, I'd say that I have more options from Paizo in the last couple months than I have from WotC all year.

What does it all mean? Great things for Paizo fans: lots of product to buy, that's true. For me, it's an electronic world, and that makes me less happy. But I think for everyone involved there's plenty of good gaming to be had.

 

[Umbran]

The ICv2 report has been around for quite some time. While not an entirely accurate picture it is something that has existed long enough to show trends and such over time within its own reported statistics.

If the original statistics are an accurate representation of reality, that's good. If not, then the trend is just as meaningless.

Are they actually the sales numbers of Paizo and WotC and others? Nope. But are they a barometer of one segment of the industry? Yep!

There's a question you should ask about anything you're treating as a barometer - is it reporting the trend, or helping to create it?

These are discussion boards - people discuss things. Heck, we discuss elves and dragons and wizards and they don't exist!

Yes. But we all agree those aren't real. We are not all in agreement about whether ICv2's ratings are real.

But there is data. We can debate how reliable the various data points are, but you really can't deny that ICV2 rankings or Amazon rankings or even anecdotal stories are data.

The number of cookies in my house is data, too.

Bad or irrelevant data, taken as relevant and good, is generally worse than no data at all.

 

[DaveMage]

One of the unusual things is the recent "tussle":

Q3 2010: Pathfinder and D&D tie
Q4 2010: D&D wins
Q1 2011: D&D wins
Q2 2011: Pathfinder wins

The strangest thing is D&D winning in Q1, 2011... because almost no D&D RPG products were released in that quarter. Was anything released for Pathfinder?

Cheers!

IIRC, the D&D Board games (and any product that says "Dungeons & Dragons" on the cover, with the exception of novels) are figured in to those totals.

 

[MerricB]

IIRC, the D&D Board games (and any product that says "Dungeons & Dragons" on the cover, with the exception of novels) are figured in to those totals.

Given that the D&D boardgames are also on the boardgame list, that's a bit surprising. (e.g. ICv2 - Top 10 Board Games--Q1 2011)

Cheers!

 

[Zil]

The number of cookies in my house is data, too.

Bad or irrelevant data, taken as relevant and good, is generally worse than no data at all.

Um, yea, but it's not at all relevant to the discussion. Now if you said you had Pathfinder and/or 4E cookies at your house, then maybe it would be relevant. ;-)

I assume you're not seriously implying that ICV2 or Amazon rankings and the like are of equivalent significance as the number of cookies in your house. For that matter, I don't recall anyone in this thread using such outlandish data points until just now, so I don't see where this bad data is that you speak of. Imperfect data, yes. Bad data, I don't think so.

The problem I see with some posts in these Paizo sales threads is the idea that keeps resurfacing that all the data should be dismissed because no-one has perfect knowledge of the entire situation. The real world doesn't operate on perfect knowledge so you can't simply dismiss data because it's not perfect. Rather you rank the data and make your decisions based on what confidence you have in the various data sources. As the data accumulates (as it has in this case), you start to have a clearer picture of what is going on and you can be more confident in your understanding of the situation.

 

[Pentius]

Um, yea, but it's not at all relevant to the discussion. Now if you said you had Pathfinder and/or 4E cookies at your house, then maybe it would be relevant. ;-) I assume you're not seriously implying that ICV2 or Amazon rankings and the like are of equal insignificance as the number of cookies in your house.

But, as has been repeatedly pointed out, ICv2 and Amazon present only part of the picture. Without knowing other numbers, it's all just conjecture. In that sense, the cookies are a perfect comparison: neither is enough to say which product is doing better.

EDIT: St-stop ninja editing! Jeez!

 

[Zil]

But, as has been repeatedly pointed out, ICv2 and Amazon present only part of the picture. Without knowing other numbers, it's all just conjecture. In that sense, the cookies are a perfect comparison: neither is enough to say which product is doing better.

EDIT: St-stop ninja editing! Jeez!

No, cookies are completely unrelated. It's like me saying in an economics discussion about whether we are slipping back into a double dip recession "I have five cats!". How is that relevant?

To give another example, let's you're not feeling well and you go to the emergency room at the hospital. The doctors don't know what is wrong with you so they start collecting data (imperfect data at that). You go into cardiac arrest. Because they don't know how many cookies you have in your house, then they shouldn't try to save you?

No, the cookies thing was just plain silly.