D&D 4E The "4E Crowd" - where will they go? What will they play?

[delericho]

My guess is that most current 4e players will move over to 5e, but by no means all. I suspect the next biggest group will stick with 4e*, while some smaller clusters will move to other games like "13th Age". Over time, I suspect 4e will drop down to become a "legacy edition", much like 2nd Ed - people still play it, but perhaps not in massive numbers.

* That assumes that nobody puts out a true "successor game" - basically, a game that is to 4e what [notranslate]Pathfinder[/notranslate] is to 3.5e. If that were to happen, and well-publicised, then I would expect to see most of those who remained with 4e gradually moving across.

But it's all just a guess of course.

 

[S'mon]

As far as 4e goes, I like it a lot better now than when I first saw it in 2008, and better than when I first tried GMing in 2009. With 3e I was pretty burnt out on it by around 2006, whereas with 4e I've enjoyed it more and more each year as I've been able to identify & fix the flaws in the system and understand how it works and what it's good at. My current 4e Forgotten Realms game just got to 10th level after 32 sessions 2011-2012, and it could run another 60+ sessions , likely some time in 2016.

Meanwhile I'll run some 4e short games, probably some [notranslate]Pathfinder[/notranslate] Beginner Box, some 1e AD&D and/or Labyrinth Lord, maybe some full [notranslate]Pathfinder[/notranslate], possibly some Traveller or another SF game, and playing whatever appeals. I'm not planning to invest in 5e and currently seems very unlikely I'll want to play it. I guess I may think differently ca 2015, but I'm really sick of WoTC's new-game treadmill business model and I don't trust them at all anymore.

I'm not interested in buying a legacy/retroclone of 4e, but I would certainly be in the market for good 4e adventures and GM's-side supplements; mass battle & dominion rules for instance, and an Epic Bestiary (@Upper_Krust).

 

[Mercurius]

I'd say by the OP's criteria I'm a serious gamer but would gladly be a hardcore RPGer if real life would permit it.

In 2012, I've brought 10 new gamers into the hobby, but we're all playing [notranslate]Pathfinder[/notranslate]. Some have never heard of D&D and for some, it's a game that their dad played.

Which is to say, my own anecdotal experience hasn't encountered hardcore/serious 4e players/GMs.

See, that's my impression as well - and even on these forums, the "4E Crowd" seems less diehard about it than the 3.x/[notranslate]Pathfinder[/notranslate] Crowd or the OSR Crowd.

But I hear you about being a serious gamer but kinda wishing one was a hardcore gamer - time (and marriage!) allowing. In actuality, I'm a serious gamer who wishes more of my friends and game group were serious as well, as I'm the only person interested in (and, to be honest, any good at) DMing.

My guess is that most current 4e players will move over to 5e, but by no means all. I suspect the next biggest group will stick with 4e*, while some smaller clusters will move to other games like "13th Age". Over time, I suspect 4e will drop down to become a "legacy edition", much like 2nd Ed - people still play it, but perhaps not in massive numbers.

* That assumes that nobody puts out a true "successor game" - basically, a game that is to 4e what [notranslate]Pathfinder[/notranslate] is to 3.5e. If that were to happen, and well-publicised, then I would expect to see most of those who remained with 4e gradually moving across.

But it's all just a guess of course.

Its a good one - I think you're on the right track here. I think Next will have a higher "conversion rate" in that, unlike 4E, there won't be as much of a backlash or exodus away from it. If they do it right, WotC should be able to gather the majority of 4E players, some old schoolers, and even a few Pathfinders - although my guess is that for many of the latter two groups it won't be either/or but both. Next could also gather of the random displaced folks that float "in-between" - people into variations like Trailblazer and Fantasy Craft. Whatever happens, it should be interesting to see how it all plays out.

 

[Mercurius]

[MENTION=463]S'mon[/MENTION], my experience has been similar in that I liked 4E when it came out-at least the game system itself, not so much the presentation and "fluff" elements added to core like dragonborn and "shardmind battleminds." I gradually grew tired with some elements of it, in particular the quality of homogeneity among the classes (that it felt like there were only four roles, I mean "classes," with just different flavorings that were only skin deep). But then, after investigating [notranslate]Pathfinder[/notranslate] a bit, I re-appreciated what 4E does well and felt reinvigorated. Plus, after a couple years of DMing exclusively, getting a chance to play a character brought 4E into a new light - while the AEDU model is very "gamist" it is also just pure fun.

My hope for Next is that they somehow integrate the feel and "toolbox" quality of previous editions with the "gamey" fun elements of 4E.

 

[Azgulor]

But I hear you about being a serious gamer but kinda wishing one was a hardcore gamer - time (and marriage!) allowing. In actuality, I'm a serious gamer who wishes more of my friends and game group were serious as well, as I'm the only person interested in (and, to be honest, any good at) DMing.

Amen to that, amigo.

 

[pemerton]

I'd like to tease out and clarify one of my points, which is that the "4E crowd" doesn't have as distinct or faithful or, probably, lasting an identity as the "3.x crowd"

<snip>

it is my sense that 4E will be similar to 2E - sort of lost in the mix, with some continued players but less than the editions before and after it.

I don't know. For me, at least, the thing that I see lauded most about 2nd ed AD&D is "the settings" and "the modules" - which are to a significant extent system neutral. Whereas the thing I see lauded most about 4e is the system - its tightness, its coherence, its balance, its ease of GMing, etc. I don't know about numbers of continued players, but I think 4e play will remain very distinctive because of the importance, to those who play it, of its mechanics.

 

[Man in the Funny Hat]

"Oh Rhett! Where shall I go? What game shall I play?"
"Frankly my dear..."

If Rhett doesn't want to run his 4E game anymore should he care? Will Ashley now return to run a 4E game for Scarlett at Tara? Will Reconstruction of D&D mean 4E is "gone with the wind?" Wait for the sequel, coming in 2013 to find out!

 

[Mercurius]

I don't know. For me, at least, the thing that I see lauded most about 2nd ed AD&D is "the settings" and "the modules" - which are to a significant extent system neutral. Whereas the thing I see lauded most about 4e is the system - its tightness, its coherence, its balance, its ease of GMing, etc. I don't know about numbers of continued players, but I think 4e play will remain very distinctive because of the importance, to those who play it, of its mechanics.

I agree to an extent, but the way I see it is that if 5E really is modular with this so-called complexity dial, then most of the folks who want the mechanics of 4E (which, in terms of differences from other editions, boils down to AEDU - at least in terms of what makes it really distinct) will just play 5E with the "AEDU option."

In the same way that if you want the AD&D feel you go for the 1E books and modules, not the less nostalgia-inducing 2E core books.

 

[S'mon]

I play Labyrinth Lord, 1e AD&D, [notranslate]Pathfinder[/notranslate] and [notranslate]Pathfinder[/notranslate] Beginner Box for the distinct feel of those games. 4e D&D is even more distinct and I definitely think I will want to go on playing it, as its own game.

I agree with Pemerton that I don't think 4e will be abandoned the way 2e was; though it probably won't retain the huge fan base 3e did, it will keep on being played by a substantial minority.

 

[ForeverSlayer]

As far as 4e goes, I like it a lot better now than when I first saw it in 2008, and better than when I first tried GMing in 2009. With 3e I was pretty burnt out on it by around 2006, whereas with 4e I've enjoyed it more and more each year as I've been able to identify & fix the flaws in the system and understand how it works and what it's good at. My current 4e Forgotten Realms game just got to 10th level after 32 sessions 2011-2012, and it could run another 60+ sessions , likely some time in 2016.

Meanwhile I'll run some 4e short games, probably some [notranslate]Pathfinder[/notranslate] Beginner Box, some 1e AD&D and/or Labyrinth Lord, maybe some full [notranslate]Pathfinder[/notranslate], possibly some Traveller or another SF game, and playing whatever appeals. I'm not planning to invest in 5e and currently seems very unlikely I'll want to play it. I guess I may think differently ca 2015, but I'm really sick of WoTC's new-game treadmill business model and I don't trust them at all anymore.

I'm not interested in buying a legacy/retroclone of 4e, but I would certainly be in the market for good 4e adventures and GM's-side supplements; mass battle & dominion rules for instance, and an Epic Bestiary (@Upper_Krust).

My group and I had the opposite, the more we played it the faster we got burnt out on it. My friend bought most of the APs that were out at the time and we decided to get 'dug in' and go through them all. Well we made it to the second one before we quit because it became extremely boring very fast. We even tried homebrew thinking it was the AP but we found out it was the system that bored us to death. Balance is great but fun is better and we just weren't having fun.