Does D&D Next need to be a success for D&D to be a success?

[Zardnaar]

I didn't want to say it, but that would also be my believe. But still, Mearls would get his name attached to it which will certainly not help with the job hunt afterwards.
"Shoot the messenger" (or "blame the guy who touched it last").

Maybe but say if he went to Paizo the people who matter will not likely blame him. Mearls comes across as a nice guy in the videos and loves D&D

 

[steeldragons]

Interesting question...and as some have mentioned already, it depends on which "D&D" you are asking about.

Does 5e have to be a success for "D&D the Brand" [tm] to be a success?

No. The books, comics, [alleged] movie, boardgames, card games, video games, iPhone games <rolls eyes>, will carry on and undoubtedly make Hasbro more money than they know what to do with.

Does 5e have to be a success for "D&D the TTRPG" [tm] to be a success?

Yes. From all indications I can tell, it seems so. If 5e is poorly received or doesn't meet whatever quotas are espoused, the plug will be pulled. Why expend the considerable resources (including time and manpower) needed on producing rulebooks, revised editions, new editions, adventure modules, and other printed and web-supported supplemental material for an ever-diminishing return resulting from an ever diluted fan-base that is finding what they want in a ttrpg somewhere [or some edition they no longer produce] else? If 5e tanks, I believe we won't see a new D&D RPG in print for a good long while. The effort, attention, and resources will be poured into "D&D the Brand" [tm] above.

Does 5e have to be a success for "D&D the Feeling and Interest in the Imaginary Fantasy Table Top Role-Playing Game [tm]" to be a success?

No. That feeling is alive and well, it seems, whether in the form of previous editions of the actual D&D game, 3rd party publishers of Xedition compatible products, the OSR, or the ever increasing array of fantasy genre ttrpgs and related materials. That success is not going any where.

So...taking the above into account I'd say, unfortunately, that it averages out to a "No."

 

[NewJeffCT]

I think the success of 5e is important to the name "Dungeons & Dragons" though, RPGs will survive even if 5e tanks. Paizo seems to be a well-run company that is good at appearing to respond to the wishes of their fans. However, over the long term, is the name "Pathfinder" going to bring in new people or even the children of people who played D&D in 1e/2e and even 3e days? Or, people who played earlier editions as teens or college students? Will they return if they don't see that D&D is still around?

D&D as a brand name has been around from the 1970s and has only become common in popular culture over the last 10-15 years. While the internet makes the dissemination of information a lot faster than it was 30-40 years ago, it will still take a long time for Paizo to get up the cultural name recognition that D&D has had. (I'm not talking about current sales - just if you ask the average person on the street, I'm guessing that D&D is far better known than Pathfinder, and it will take a long time for Paizo to get up to that level of name recognition.)

 

[Wicht]

May not be Mearls and co's fault as no one may be able to save D&D from the damage of 4E. If D&D tanks most likely it will be because of the damage already done.

Urm, didn't Mearls have his hand in 4e also?

 

[Zardnaar]

Urm, didn't Mearls have his hand in 4e also?

He did but it was not his baby AFAIK. I think Slavicsek and Heinsoo/Tweet pushed the design and they started 2006 and Mearls did not jump on board until 2007 IIRC. I think it was Bill who took the fall for it and a few years ago he was the one on leave with pay at the end of 2011 or maybe 2010.

I'm not sure which designer thought 4E as presented was a good idea.

 

[DaveMage]

Mearls had his hand in 4E certainly, but he wasn't driving the van, so to speak. Most of the people responsible for the direction and marketing of 4E are no longer at WotC.

If Next fails, I'd still partly blame the 4E drivers for losing all the D&D players that 4E cost them.

Still, even though I won't be buying, I think Next will be an initial success because the WotC marketing machine is a powerful thing.

 

[Ahnehnois]

Gotta admit, I'd be interested in hearing what people think about those D&D-as-a-brand offerings. D&D is a role playing game to me. I've not interacted with any of the other stuff - comics and toys and iPhone games and stuff. I don't really feel any urge to.

I'm not usually a fan either, but I have to admit, Baldur's Gate surely had something to do with convincing me to get into D&D and helping me learn the rules. Neverwinter Nights too to a lesser extent. And I definitely knew people who came to it through Dragonlance and FR novels. I agree that D&D is the roleplaying game, but all that other stuff does seem to help recruit people to the roleplaying game.

***

As to the OP question, I don't think it does. I think the OGL has been quite successful at idiot-proofing D&D. People will be playing something that's essentially 3e D&D for a long time to come, whatever brand name you slap on it.

As to the D&D brand, I think the exact opposite is true. I think it's lost so much in terms of relevance and the company has lost so much credibility that even if WotC came out with the best game ever I don't think it do all that well.

 

[Morrus]

I'm not usually a fan either, but I have to admit, Baldur's Gate surely had something to do with convincing me to get into D&D and helping me learn the rules. Neverwinter Nights too to a lesser extent. And I definitely knew people who came to it through Dragonlance and FR novels. I agree that D&D is the roleplaying game, but all that other stuff does seem to help recruit people to the roleplaying game.

Oh, for sure. The video games that are the RPG but in computer game form; yeah, I enjoyed the hell out of BG, NWN, PST etc. DDO and the new Neverwinter didn't grab me at all, though.

 

[GreyLord]

I think the success of 5e is important to the name "Dungeons & Dragons" though, RPGs will survive even if 5e tanks. Paizo seems to be a well-run company that is good at appearing to respond to the wishes of their fans. However, over the long term, is the name "Pathfinder" going to bring in new people or even the children of people who played D&D in 1e/2e and even 3e days? Or, people who played earlier editions as teens or college students? Will they return if they don't see that D&D is still around?

D&D as a brand name has been around from the 1970s and has only become common in popular culture over the last 10-15 years. While the internet makes the dissemination of information a lot faster than it was 30-40 years ago, it will still take a long time for Paizo to get up the cultural name recognition that D&D has had. (I'm not talking about current sales - just if you ask the average person on the street, I'm guessing that D&D is far better known than Pathfinder, and it will take a long time for Paizo to get up to that level of name recognition.)

Hate to break it to you, but D&D was far more popular and common in popular culture around30 years ago.

I'd say it's been more in the un-popular culture (or, in other words, stereotyped badly as a game which only a certain type of person whom popular culture would not like to associate with) over the past twenty years.

It's been well known as a brand since the outbreak of it's plethora related fad in the early to mid 80s. That's why Hasbro may want to have movie rights (GI Joe, Transformers, and those types of nostalgia movies anyone?...of course on the other side is Battleship based on a game...and a few of the 80s nostalgia movies that did terribly).

But as for being POPULAR...it's biggest stint in that was over 30 years ago.

 

[Warbringer]

May not be Mearls and co's fault as no one may be able to save D&D from the damage of 4E. If D&D tanks most likely it will be because of the damage already done.

Nonsense.

The brand has survived any perceived wrongs the edition may or not have caused.

The IP is incredibly strong; nearly everyone has heard of it and will have some affiliation with it. If Hasbro can generate a new revenue stream based of history of players that have lapsed, they could have a killer brand.

Hell, a good movie (centered on Drizzit*) could create that penetration, and a blockbuster movie that makes 75-100MM in profit probably outstrips D&D probably, ever.
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* pre movie, was Iron Man a stronger brand than Drizzit? (over 10MM copies sold)