Imaro
Legend
Again, it has a correlation for either: 1) interest in the game, or 2) actual ownership of the game.
If the game is not out yet, obviously it's interest in the game.
But interest doesn't correlate to market share or even popularity, especially since people could be talking negatively about the game and it would still register as a higher number on these charts.
But, I think the Pathfinder data, and some of the other data we have on sales from some of the other lesser-selling games, matches pretty well to this chart when you compare them.
Right now Pathfinder is the best selling game, and it's also the highest ranking game as far as games for sale now.
Yes, and that's easily provable but when you get into lower ranked games I don't think it's anywhere as near clear cut as that.
There is obviously a strong correlation between how well a game is selling, and how much people are talking about it. I *think* there is also a strong correlation between how well a game is likely to initially sell, and how much people are talking about it prior to it's release, given some polling data we have an comparison to prior polling data just before the release of another game.
I don't think you can assume this correlation, especially like I said when you get into games that sell magnitudes less than Pathfinder and D&D... at least not at the level where you can give exact numbers for market share based on it.
It's not causation, it's not 100%, but I think it's a fair approximation. If you have serious doubts, you can simply enter an error factor into it, and you will see for most rationale error factors the rough comparison still holds.
Never said it was causation and I know it's not 100% However where we differ is in how accurate it is for smaller games or things like the OSR. So yes I have serious doubts, and I don't think the rough comparison would hold for smaller games but again, I could be wrong.
EDIT: The other thing I don't get is if RPG players who post on forums are not a representative sample of the larger group of RPG'ers... how can tracking what games they are talking about provide us with insight into the market as a whole?
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