Stormonu
NeoGrognard
He's probably going to die.
He's got an AC of 14-15 and 6-7 HP, maybe 8. The ogre hits Black Dougal on an 8-9. If Black Dougal didn't put enough points into Con (+0) the Ogre will drop him off base damage alone (6) and the ogre only needs to roll moderately well (8+ on 2d8) to straight kill Black Dougal. For each +1 to Black Dougal's Con mod his odds get better, though he's almost certain to be knocked unconscious in the first round, and will always have some risk of being one-shot (even if he pumped all his points into Con his HP soft-caps at 10, so a crit will always kill him.)
Ouch - sounds like Dougal's best chance is to put some distance between himself and the Ogre, if he can. Okay, if Dougal gets initiative over the Ogre, can he make an attack then move away, hoping the others can block for him (i.e., get the fighter up to take the brunt of the attacks)?
Conversely, if Dougal does take a hit and assuming the Fighter, Wizard and Cleric move in after seeing their friend go down, can the remaining three hope to drop the Ogre before they are all killed? Assuming the Cleric takes an action to try and revive Dougal and get him back in the fight, will Dougal be too far in negative hit points to revive? If they can get Dougal back up into the fight, does it improve their chances of winning this fight any? 79 hit points seems like a lot to chew through.
Back in B/X days, I actually had this happen to a party. They were able to kill the Ogre, but only because the Ogre rolled a 1 for damage when he hit the fighter.
Dougal by himself is clearly out of his league - but does the party working together have a decent chance of winning this fight (without permanently losing chararcters) or is CR 2 WAY over the heads of 5E 1st level characters?