D&D 5E Given WotC plans with the RPG will 5e always be the #1 seller?

[Gundark]

I expect 5e to be the number 1 seller this quarter and for the next few quarters. According to Mike Mearls the starter set is going for a 2nd printing.

However given WotC's statements about their plans to (supposedly) get away from the source book a month club and to publish more adventures I've got to wonder if D&D will always be at the number one sales spot. Now I suspect we'll see updates to Forgotten Realms and Eberron pretty quick in the pipe line and I'm sure we'll see advanced arcane/divine/martial.

BUT...if WotC keeps their word about releasing books at a slower pace, and Paizo which does release something every month, then we'd expect that there will be sales quarters where D&D isn't the number one sales spot and Pathfinder is.

Anyhow long story short I suspect we'll continue to see the back and forth between Pathfinder and D&D with the ICV2 sales positions as WotC looks more at building D&D as a brand than the RPG.

 

[doctorhook]

I expect 5e to be the number 1 seller this quarter and for the next few quarters. According to Mike Mearls the starter set is going for a 2nd printing.

However given WotC's statements about their plans to (supposedly) get away from the source book a month club and to publish more adventures I've got to wonder if D&D will always be at the number one sales spot. Now I suspect we'll see updates to Forgotten Realms and Eberron pretty quick in the pipe line and I'm sure we'll see advanced arcane/divine/martial.

BUT...if WotC keeps their word about releasing books at a slower pace, and Paizo which does release something every month, then we'd expect that there will be sales quarters where D&D isn't the number one sales spot and Pathfinder is.

Anyhow long story short I suspect we'll continue to see the back and forth between Pathfinder and D&D with the ICV2 sales positions as WotC looks more at building D&D as a brand than the RPG.

There's too many variables to say. If we assume that 5E is a hit, it's highly likely that it will be the top selling RPG product at least some of the time. Either way, both WotC and Paizo are faced with the dilemma of how to sustain their revenues without flooding their own market.

WotC is publicly stating now that they want to avoid relying solely on the revenue of RPG rulebooks, so they plan to diversify the D&D brand with more apps, video games, board games, comics, novels, and other tie-in media. Paizo is expanding the Pathfinder brand too (surely because they're finding themselves facing similar challenges), but for all of their success, Paizo is still a small-fry compared to the resources and infrastructure that WotC and Hasbro can put behind D&D if they choose to. Paizo is cranking out new books at the same pace that WotC previously tried, and there's no reason to think they won't end up facing the same problems, particularly market saturation.

If 5E is especially successful, I expect by early 2015 Pathfinder sales could begin to drop significantly, forcing Paizo to adopt a new direction for the PF line. This could be anything: slowing their release, changing their publishing format, reducing the number of rulebooks in favour of settings and APs, developing a new edition of Pathfinder, publishing 5E Golarion content, or any of dozens of other possibilities.

---

Addendum: I don't believe the RPG market is large enough to support two "big fish". I think the vast majority of gamers (mostly casuals) who spend money on RPG products will only spend their money on one product line at a time, because they only have time to play one game at a time. Because of all this, I believe that eventually either 5E or Pathfinder will largely choke-out sales of the other.

Both WotC and Paizo are trying to expand their brands, because they know the RPG publishing market is not fertile (profitable) enough to sustain their revenues indefinitely. Beyond just providing new revenue streams, expanding the D&D and Pathfinder brands allows those companies to draw new potential consumers into the RPG market. In the off-chance that one of those brand expansions (e.g.: some new D&D video game) becomes a mega-success, that's just gravy.

 

[Umbran]

BUT...if WotC keeps their word about releasing books at a slower pace, and Paizo which does release something every month, then we'd expect that there will be sales quarters where D&D isn't the number one sales spot and Pathfinder is.

We have, over and over again, noted how ICV2 reports are flawed in the modern marketplace.

But, even with that... so what? If WotC likes the results, and we get the gaming material we want and need, the sales rankings mean exactly bupkis.

 

[Gundark]

We have, over and over again, noted how ICV2 reports are flawed in the modern marketplace.

But, even with that... so what? If WotC likes the results, and we get the gaming material we want and need, the sales rankings mean exactly bupkis.

point

 

[Rygar]

There's too many variables to say. If we assume that 5E is a hit, it's highly likely that it will be the top selling RPG product at least some of the time. Either way, both WotC and Paizo are faced with the dilemma of how to sustain their revenues without flooding their own market.

WotC is publicly stating now that they want to avoid relying solely on the revenue of RPG rulebooks, so they plan to diversify the D&D brand with more apps, video games, board games, comics, novels, and other tie-in media. Paizo is expanding the Pathfinder brand too (surely because they're finding themselves facing similar challenges), but for all of their success, Paizo is still a small-fry compared to the resources and infrastructure that WotC and Hasbro can put behind D&D if they choose to. Paizo is cranking out new books at the same pace that WotC previously tried, and there's no reason to think they won't end up facing the same problems, particularly market saturation.

If 5E is especially successful, I expect by early 2015 Pathfinder sales could begin to drop significantly, forcing Paizo to adopt a new direction for the PF line. This could be anything: slowing their release, changing their publishing format, reducing the number of rulebooks in favour of settings and APs, developing a new edition of Pathfinder, publishing 5E Golarion content, or any of dozens of other possibilities.

---

Addendum: I don't believe the RPG market is large enough to support two "big fish". I think the vast majority of gamers (mostly casuals) who spend money on RPG products will only spend their money on one product line at a time, because they only have time to play one game at a time. Because of all this, I believe that eventually either 5E or Pathfinder will largely choke-out sales of the other.

Both WotC and Paizo are trying to expand their brands, because they know the RPG publishing market is not fertile (profitable) enough to sustain their revenues indefinitely. Beyond just providing new revenue streams, expanding the D&D and Pathfinder brands allows those companies to draw new potential consumers into the RPG market. In the off-chance that one of those brand expansions (e.g.: some new D&D video game) becomes a mega-success, that's just gravy.

As a counterpoint...

WOTC/Hasbro are corporate, with many layers of hierarchy, and on the Hasbro side likely a poor understanding of the RPG market. So while they have substantially more resources, they also suffer group-think, business men interfering with the creative design process, the push to casual, marketing driven desgin, and a push to generate quarterly revenue to satisfy shareholders at all costs.

Those resources don't guarantee them a win, in fact, it is much more likely it'll impede success rather than increase it as any success is going to attract business people who "Know how to maximize the brand", usually without an understanding of it.

 

[delericho]

Given what we've seen of WotC's release schedule, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them back in the #2 spot by this time next year.

However, while that would be a 'win' for Paizo, I don't think it would count as a 'loss' for WotC - they have a strategy for D&D, of which the RPG is only a very small part (and ICV2 barely registers), so provided the overall strategy is working it doesn't matter that they're not top of that one particular chart.

 

[doctorhook]

As a counterpoint...

WOTC/Hasbro are corporate, with many layers of hierarchy, and on the Hasbro side likely a poor understanding of the RPG market. So while they have substantially more resources, they also suffer group-think, business men interfering with the creative design process, the push to casual, marketing driven desgin, and a push to generate quarterly revenue to satisfy shareholders at all costs.

Those resources don't guarantee them a win, in fact, it is much more likely it'll impede success rather than increase it as any success is going to attract business people who "Know how to maximize the brand", usually without an understanding of it.

I see what you're trying to get at, but it's pretty unrealistic. Hasbro owns WotC but doesn't manage its operations. WotC knows its own business as well as anyone.

Is your entire assessment of 5E based on the ownership structure of the corporation publishing it? Because that's not a good sole basis for assessing a product.

 

[Jake Johnson]

As was mentioned earlier in this thread, most of us only have time for one game. For me, it will be 5E.

It's my understanding that WotC plans to focus on adventures and diversification once the core rule books are out, and that it intends to make a smaller number of high-quality products, rather than flooding the market with tons of books. This approach sounds great to me. I can buy the books and the adventures, and have plenty of playing material, but not feel like I have to incorporate a zillion new rules into my game. I would also buy supplemental materials, such as apps and novels.

My questions are:

1. What happens if WotC steals a large number of players from other systems, since many of us will pick one?
2. What about the artists and writers who produce all of the material? Are there enough of them to create material for both Pathfinder and 5E?

 

[Morrus]

WOTC/Hasbro are corporate, with many layers of hierarchy, and on the Hasbro side likely a poor understanding of the RPG market. So while they have substantially more resources, they also suffer group-think, business men interfering with the creative design process,

Hasbro does not interfere with the creative team. Its interaction is pretty much "how much cash are you handing over to us this quarter?" and stops there.

 

[Beleriphon]

2. What about the artists and writers who produce all of the material? Are there enough of them to create material for both Pathfinder and 5E?

That is an interesting questions. I suspect the answer will be no, especially if Wizards pays better (and I imagine they do). I have no idea was the going rate for commissioned art work or freelance writing is but I have a feeling if WotC wants to pay better having deeper pockets is going to help immensely.