D&D 5E (2014) Where are the whaling vessels? (A.k.a. material for big spenders)

[Neonchameleon]

Tabletop Roleplaying is a very cheap hobby. You need a couple of books and some friends - and after that most of the cost is for drinks. Indeed it's possible to play while spending absolutely nothing on the game (and there are some pretty good free RPGs).

A common modern breakdown of how you make money is the Whales, Dolphins, Minnows model in which you separate your customers into four groups.

• Freeloaders. These people will not pay for the game if they don't have to. Financially they are irrelevant
• Minnows. Minnows will reach into their pockets, but buy the minimum necessary. In D&D terms that's the PHB - with really extravagant minnows buying the PHB, the DMG, and the MM. Possibly a limited budget, possibly just discernment.
• Dolphins. Dolphins will buy whatever they find useful. No real vanity stuff, but whatever rulebooks catch their eye.
• Whales. Whales buy everything. And want the vanity stuff and tie in branded products. Signed copies. Deluxe editions. Money isn't really an object to them either because they are deeply invested or because they are just rich and it isn't an issue (whatever you spend on D&D will be cheaper than yachting).

5e is doing very well with minnows. The PHB sold spectacularly well. But once you've sold the PHB to a minnow (or possibly the core 3 to a minnow) you're done. The huge problem for 5e is that minnows don't sustain a product. You get the money out of them once and you're done. Possibly three times. But then you're done. Minnows don't sustain a line.

When it comes to dolphins, both 4e and Pathfinder are spectacularly good. Both have subscription models - and as of November 2013, 4e was still earning $6 million/year from DDI (then they changed the boards software and we don't know how many are still subscribed). Paizo have the Adventure Path subscriptions. 5e has almost nothing for dolphins - so far as I'm aware there are only three core books and two adventures (plus the starter set) out - and the DM screen. Oh, and some minis for a Theatre of the Mind game. So unlike Pathfinder or 4e, 5e isn't getting much out of its dolphins. And they appear to have de facto cancelled a classic dolphin product already (as well as the digital tools).

And the whaling vessels? De Luxe sets? Tie-ins (I'm aware of a few minis and one boardgame). I see nothing.

And seriously, look at this year's offerings (courtesy of this site). That's one DM screen and one adventure in a schedule that probably reaches to June. The two combined cost about as much as the PHB - and does anyone really think that there will be nearly as many sales?

Where does the money come from? What am I missing?

 

[Paraxis]

The money is going to come from the brand. They are doing a new D&D movie, they had D&D slot machines, board games, pretty sure we can expect a new comic line, they have mentioned an android game I think, stuff like that.

Here is a page with some of the stuff http://archive.wizards.com/DnD/Licensing.aspx

Now if you have tons of disposable income, and want to spend it on gaming material I would point to universal things like five thousand dollar gaming tables, pewter miniature collections, dwarven forge dungeon tile sets, overhead projectors on top of your game table, stuff like that.

 

[delericho]

And the whaling vessels? De Luxe sets? Tie-ins (I'm aware of a few minis and one boardgame). I see nothing.

Well, Pathfinder has an MMO in the pipeline, comics, and novels. D&D has a couple of MMOs, plus there's that not-really-Dragon-Dice licensed game, plus "Attack Wing" (or whatever it's called). And they're at least trying to do stuff with a movie, possibly a video game, and even clothing.

So the field for tie-ins isn't completely empty.

That said, there is a lack of "whale" products in the "main line" - those deluxe books, but also things like a boxed set version of an adventure with the minis included, or similar. In truth, these have always been thin on the ground and almost entirely provided by third parties (I thinking of things like "Castle Whiterock" and "Ptolus" here). It might be nice to see a few such items being tried.

Where does the money come from? What am I missing?

The big thing I think you're missing is that WotC doesn't care. The money in D&D isn't in the RPG. Or, at least, there isn't enough money in it for Hasbro to care, except where there's a spike due to a new edition. For Hasbro, the money is in licensing - those movie rights, the video games, and so forth. So the dolphins and even the whales aren't worth them really going after: for them, nothing but the Kraken will do.

 

[delericho]

Now if you have tons of disposable income, and want to spend it on gaming material I would point to universal things like five thousand dollar gaming tables, pewter miniature collections, dwarven forge dungeon tile sets, overhead projectors on top of your game table, stuff like that.

That provokes a thought: one of the issues RPGs have is that not only do you not need much material beyond the core rulebooks, you don't actually go too far before you either have more material than you could ever use or before you're at a point where adding more stuff doesn't actually add to (and may even detract from) the enjoyment of the game.

(Even 'disposable' items like adventures can accumulate quicker than they can be used. I realised recently that I now have 19 full campaigns that I've never played, each of which would take at least 2 years to play through at my current rate. So that's enough adventure material to last me well past retirement - and that's just the full campaigns!)

Which means that, in order to continue making money, a company needs to either keep people buying beyond the point where doing so actually adds to their game or they need to bring in large numbers of new players.

 

[Will Doyle]

I'd argue that in RPG terms, a minnow buys a set of dice, a t-shirt or a single miniature for their character, a dolphin buys a core book or occasionally buys the odd box of miniatures, and a whale buys the limited edition deluxe rulebooks or stacks of Dwarven Forge scenery (I prefer fans and superfans, for what it's worth). In terms of D&D, I'm with Paraxis: you'd have to look towards the whole brand rather than the RPG alone. That's the board games, attack wing, miniatures, the Tiamat and Bahamut iconics, and the core game itself.

 

[Astrosicebear]

D&D is building the brand.

Once its established, they will licence the *(&^ out of it.

Theres your money for WOTC and all your products to buy.

 

[Neonchameleon]

The big thing I think you're missing is that WotC doesn't care. The money in D&D isn't in the RPG. Or, at least, there isn't enough money in it for Hasbro to care, except where there's a spike due to a new edition. For Hasbro, the money is in licensing - those movie rights, the video games, and so forth. So the dolphins and even the whales aren't worth them really going after: for them, nothing but the Kraken will do.

The thing is with the way it's being run I don't think there's going to be enough money to keep D&D on the shelves of a lot of FLGSs. (I know mine gave up stocking RPGs). The movie rights? Sure there are a few D&D fans - but after Dungeons and Dragons (worldwide gross $33 million, budget $45 million), Dungeons and Dragons: Wrath of the Dragon God (made for TV, critically panned), and The Book of Vile Darkness (appears to have not even troubled the critics) it's hardly a valuable license. Comics? Have you seen the state of the comics industry? That just leaves video games - and why would people want the license?

 

[Neonchameleon]

D&D is building the brand.

Once its established, they will licence the *(&^ out of it.

Theres your money for WOTC and all your products to buy.

OK. So once a forty year old, multi-million dollar brand whose high point was in 1983 is "established" they will license it without using a full court press with their PR. Riiiight.

That provokes a thought: one of the issues RPGs have is that not only do you not need much material beyond the core rulebooks, you don't actually go too far before you either have more material than you could ever use or before you're at a point where adding more stuff doesn't actually add to (and may even detract from) the enjoyment of the game.
...
Which means that, in order to continue making money, a company needs to either keep people buying beyond the point where doing so actually adds to their game or they need to bring in large numbers of new players.

Yup. It's why modular construction works. And why there are so few big RPG companies. It's a cottage industry because each game can't sustain much more. Paizo have pulled the brilliant trick of making their adventure paths the equivalent of Ideal Homes magazines - far more people buy them than expect to play them and they are excellent to read.

 

[SoulsFury]

Us whales bought the Goodman Games adventures. WotC gained no money from me for having a light release schedule... not that I'm complaining. I am having more fun with 5th edition than I have had since I was in middle school (2nd edition). I rarely get to play tabletop, mostly PBP, so I have little need for miniatures, dungeon tiles or DM screens.

 

[delericho]

The thing is with the way it's being run I don't think there's going to be enough money to keep D&D on the shelves of a lot of FLGSs.

Can't argue with that. The best thing for the D&D RPG would almost certainly for it to be in the hands of someone else. But, dealing with things as they are, that ain't going to happen - Hasbro, as a rule, don't sell IP. Though I do wonder what might happen if FFG (say) were to approach them regarding licensing the RPG rights for the next decade.

The movie rights? Sure there are a few D&D fans - but after Dungeons and Dragons (worldwide gross $33 million, budget $45 million), Dungeons and Dragons: Wrath of the Dragon God (made for TV, critically panned), and The Book of Vile Darkness (appears to have not even troubled the critics) it's hardly a valuable license.

It's valuable enough to spawn a multi-million dollar lawsuit that has the potential to redefine the legal status of sequels (potentially costing everyone involved big). I personally find it hard to believe, but it really does look like someone thinks it could serve as the successor to "Lord of the Rings".

That just leaves video games - and why would people want the license?

To leverage it the same way Bioware did: you use the name recognition to drive sales of your game, you make sure that game is a good one, and thus build your own name recognition. Then you sell your next game as being "from the people who brought you...", and then you can let the license lapse.

That is, it's probably most useful as a ladder to help your company rise, rather than being the be-all in itself.