D&D 5E 1 Year later: D&D still strong on amazon

[Mistwell]

If nothing else comes along to take the place of books that are sold well on Amazon then they will remain in their places until then. This by no means shows that D&D books are still going strong.

It's all books, not gaming books, and it's a ranking that changes literally hourly as an average. Amazon is selling MORE books now than they were when 3.0e came out, not less (I covered that in another thread based on their public data from their quarterly reports, which are under FCC regulations for accuracy). It does in fact show that D&D books are still going strong...VERY strong. Incredibly strong. And that data is confirmed by Morrus' measurements of what games are being discussed on the internet, and of Roll20 and Fantasy Grounds data of what games are being played the most, and ICv2's data on retail sales, and Crawford and Mearls' comments on sales, and the New York Times bestseller list data, and pretty much every single objective set of data we have. One might be inaccurate, but when you get a confluence of agreement of all the objective measures, it's an extremely good bet that you have a consensus that it's doing very well. If you want to argue 5e might not be selling extremely well, you would need some objective data suggesting that - something more than mere speculation. So far, I have not seen one single piece of objective data suggesting it's not selling well. Have you?

Amazon is not by any means a standard that people use to measure how well something is selling. It sells well on Amazon is about all the factual information you can get.

Amazon has become the largest retailer on the planet, at least based on market value (company a value of $247.6 billion, surpassing Wal-mart). It is, in fact, the best metric for how well something is selling. More so now than when 3.0 was out in fact.

I know you've expressed concerns about sales relative to Paizo's in-house sales, but I am not sure this information is really related to that. Pathfinder can be selling extremely well also - that doesn't in any way mean 5e is not also selling extremely well. They can both sell extremely well. You don't need to be concerned that 5e sales being strong means Pathfinder sales are weaker, and there is no reason to be defensive of Pathfinder by trying to diminish the 5e sales. I'd bet Pathfinder, in some ways, actually benefits from the influx of new players from 5e.

 

[wedgeski]

If nothing else comes along to take the place of books that are sold well on Amazon then they will remain in their places until then. This by no means shows that D&D books are still going strong.

Amazon is not by any means a standard that people use to measure how well something is selling. It sells well on Amazon is about all the factual information you can get.

What is your beef? Seriously. You can't let a single positive 5E post or thread go by without wagging your finger and dumping on it. Why on earth are you so invested in 5E (and WotC) failing?

 

[BryonD]

It does in fact show that D&D books are still going strong...VERY strong. Incredibly strong.

Who do you think is buying all these books?

I love 5E. I'm well into the "its is woefully undersupported" camp, but that doesn't take anything away from the merits of the core 3 books.

I would be careful comparing numbers to the 3E days, however. Yes, Amazon sells a ton more stuff. But a lot of people back then bought their books from Brick and Mortar stores while swearing that they would never abandon those beloved anchors of the hobby. Now those B&Ms are long gone (exceptions noted) and those same people are reading about D&D on their kindle.

Plus 3E was competing for gaming budgets against a swarm of 3PPs from day 1.

Again, I'm not challenging the success of 5E (to date). I love it and I'm glad to see it is off to a solid start. But I don't see evidence that hordes of new players are jumping into the hobby each week. The RPG fanbase pretty much seems to be in the same range. A whole lot of them are playing 5E. But most of them bought the books already. I can see a steady trickle of buys for players in groups plus the perpetual roll of new blood. But that seems pretty small compared to the enduring numbers that are suggested here. Either those people are coming from somewhere, or the data is harder to interpret.
I'm not claiming it is either. I don't know.

 

[Queer Venger]

Who do you think is buying all these books?


I love 5E. I'm well into the "its is woefully undersupported" camp, but that doesn't take anything away from the merits of the core 3 books.


I would be careful comparing numbers to the 3E days, however. Yes, Amazon sells a ton more stuff. But a lot of people back then bought their books from Brick and Mortar stores while swearing that they would never abandon those beloved anchors of the hobby. Now those B&Ms are long gone (exceptions noted) and those same people are reading about D&D on their kindle.


Plus 3E was competing for gaming budgets against a swarm of 3PPs from day 1.


Again, I'm not challenging the success of 5E (to date). I love it and I'm glad to see it is off to a solid start. But I don't see evidence that hordes of new players are jumping into the hobby each week. The RPG fanbase pretty much seems to be in the same range. A whole lot of them are playing 5E. But most of them bought the books already. I can see a steady trickle of buys for players in groups plus the perpetual roll of new blood. But that seems pretty small compared to the enduring numbers that are suggested here. Either those people are coming from somewhere, or the data is harder to interpret.
I'm not claiming it is either. I don't know.

[emphasis mine]
I am, games at my FLGS, and local stores in my area are reporting a major shortage of DM's due to player demand. Our AL is very well organized and we are hosting seminars to teach new DMs to meet this demand, so based on what I see, (and I live in a major Metropolitan city-Los Angeles, CA) more people are playing. Im DMing more D&D than I ever did when I first played 1e when I was in the USAF.

From what I saw at Gencon, more people are playing. And that is organized play, this does not account for home-games, which is the life-blood of D&D.

Im now teaching my nephew and his classmates, how to play D&D via Skype.
D&D is flourishing, and that is just in my own life.

 

[cmad1977]

[emphasis mine]
I am, games at my FLGS, and local stores in my area are reporting a major shortage of DM's due to player demand. Our AL is very well organized and we are hosting seminars to teach new DMs to meet this demand, so based on what I see, (and I live in a major Metropolitan city-Los Angeles, CA) more people are playing. Im DMing more D&D than I ever did when I first played 1e when I was in the USAF.

From what I saw at Gencon, more people are playing. And that is organized play, this does not account for home-games, which is the life-blood of D&D.

Im now teaching my nephew and his classmates, how to play D&D via Skype.
D&D is flourishing, and that is just in my own life.

What store do you play at? I'm in LA as well. Kinda looking for a place to try the AL

 

[Mistwell]

Who do you think is buying all these books?

According to recent comments (cannot recall if it was Mearls or Crawford), their data suggests a lot of new players.

I would be careful comparing numbers to the 3E days, however.

Mearls has said it's outsold 3e to this point of 3e's sales numbers.

Again, I'm not challenging the success of 5E (to date). I love it and I'm glad to see it is off to a solid start. But I don't see evidence that hordes of new players are jumping into the hobby each week.

Well, we'd have to assume Mearls/Crawford's data is wrong then. I see no reason to assume that. Also, ICv2 is mirroring Mearls/Crawford data in saying Pathfinder sales have not really slowed by WOTC sales are massive. The only way to account for that is new players. Plus Hasbro quarterly report named D&D by name, which means sales had to hit a material revenue number (not a percentage change from prior numbers, but a base number that is a meaningful sum of revenue for Hasbro in general). That has to include a decent number of new buyers - the existing base doesn't do that.

Either those people are coming from somewhere, or the data is harder to interpret.
I'm not claiming it is either. I don't know.

It seems to be new players mostly right now. The Amazon PHB data a year in, alone, I think shows that - even without all the other data showing it and Crawford/Mearls saying that's what's happening.

 

[Mistwell]

What store do you play at? I'm in LA as well. Kinda looking for a place to try the AL

You're welcome to Fire & Dice, in the San Fernando Valley, at Ventura and De Soto. Wednesdays at 7pm.

 

[Nemio]

But I don't see evidence that hordes of new players are jumping into the hobby each week. The RPG fanbase pretty much seems to be in the same range.

Check how much the DnD reddit page has grown in all this time.
http://redditmetrics.com/r/DnD

There are alot of posts from new people getting into the hobby

 

[Corpsetaker]

Check how much the DnD reddit page has grown in all this time.
http://redditmetrics.com/r/DnD

There are alot of posts from new people getting into the hobby

This isn't some kind of national measurement that is recognized as so.

We don't have all the information to tell us these kinds of things nor we will ever so it's a fruitless claim to make that is based purely on opinion.

 

[TerraDave]

Who do you think is buying all these books?

... But I don't see evidence that hordes of new players are jumping into the hobby each week. The RPG fanbase pretty much seems to be in the same range. A whole lot of them are playing 5E. But most of them bought the books already. I can see a steady trickle of buys for players in groups plus the perpetual roll of new blood. But that seems pretty small compared to the enduring numbers that are suggested here. Either those people are coming from somewhere, or the data is harder to interpret.
I'm not claiming it is either. I don't know.

We also have the retail surveys:

http://www.enworld.org/forum/conten...-s-Quarterly-Hobby-Game-Rankings#.VcdOZUKJl0c

An increase from $15 million to $25 million per year over the last 2 years. The market has grown, and a lot of that must now be spent on those 3 books, as they are very much the top seller.s

Going back to Amazon. If amazon sells more then ever, and ranks are higher then ever...again, someone must be buying them. In terms of shifting from B&Ns...thats true for all books, D&D is selling well compared to all books. Selling better compared to all books then 3.5 or 4E. But the thing that stands out is sustainability. Thats whats different. That takes us back a long way for D&D.

Don't worry, I will let you know 6 months from now. We will see if it continues.