Arilyn
Hero
Well, then that's just silly: about as silly as saying that D&D Elves aren't Tolkien Elves, or D&D humanoids aren't derived from the Snaga/Uruk/Urak-Hai complex of Goblins/Ors in Tolkien.
I think the original point some of us were raising has been lost. The question is not could DnD exist without Tolkien, but would it? Of course you could have DnD without Tolkien ever having existed. Gygax had lots of material to draw on, and had a great interest in myth, folklore and fantasy. Nobody is saying Tolkien invented fantasy.
Gygax created the fantasy supplement to Chainmail because he noticed there was a great interest in fantasy, especially Tolkien. He thought it would be a draw. There was a great interest in fantasy because Tolkien had popularized the genre in the 70s. Without Tolkien, fantasy would have remained obscure. So the question is, would Gygax have bothered with the fantasy supplement under these conditions? Gygax would have been intersected, of course. He was drawn to the genre without Tolkien, but for most people, at the time, Tolkien was their introduction. So, to make the point again, would Gygax have bothered creating the fantasy supplement if there wasn't a great interest? Wargamers, after all, have not historically(excuse the pun), been that drawn to fiction in their games. Tolkien 's popularity, however, made it possible for Gygax to drum up enough interest in his fantasy version. Later, of course, it became DnD. Any broken link in the chain could have resulted in DnD not being written.
It's an interesting question. We'll never know for sure unless someone has a time machine and removes Tolkien from the picture, which would be terrible.
Eventually, we would have role playing games, but who knows what form they would have initially taken and when they would have first been published.