And while I generally agree with you that the benefits of DEX are many, while the benefits of STR seem to be relatively few, I take it as given that an ASI, or point-buy resource, is worth the same no matter how it’s spent. My analysis doesn’t seek to quantify the difference between investing in DEX as opposed to STR. Considering the two choices as equivalent is actually a starting point. Now, that doesn’t mean the choices are equivalent for all characters. Obviously, there are some characters who should invest in DEX and others who should invest in STR. The resources they’re using to do so are equivalent, however. If those resources are spent badly/on the wrong things, then of course they’ll be worth less to that character than they would to a character that spends them on the right things, so one of my assumptions is that the choices made are the right ones for each character.
Another quibble is that you seem to have forgotten that damage output is used as a balancing factor between investment in STR versus DEX.
My point was that I'm not sure that I agree with what seems to be the premise of your calculations: a high DEX, light armor PC should have AC roughly equal to a high STR, heavy armor PC. The problem here is that the investment in DEX is really not much of an opportunity cost over investment in STR for characters with light armor prof., especially from an AC/Armor perspective. Yes, the STR character is going to have access to more two handed, higher damage weapons, not to mention feats like GWM. Yet the high DEX character is still benefiting from adding DEX bonus to their attacks & damage, in addition to all the other benefits of DEX, not to mention they could possibly be ranged combatants that can benefit from feats like SS and such. I'm not 100% convinced that this 'balances' out.
Of course, my brief analysis is meant for more martial type characters, and does not take into account spell casters, who usually have other ways of increasing their defenses; for a cost.