I'm dismissing the multitarget argument because the game simply doesn't value multi target damage significantly more than single target damage - else you'd actually have a major reason to cast things other than fireball for single target damage...
I'm also ignoring your recurring damage citations as they aren't really what I've had in mind this whole thread. If I need to restrict my initial criteria more then that's fine.
I'm ignoring paladin smites because it was never my intention to buff those.
I think the only spell that's left out of your list is magic missile and attack actions obviously do more than it in a level 1 slot starting in tier 2 and more than it in a level 2 slot in tier 3. That's with chance to hit factored in.
So ummm, want to try again?
Nope, don't need to try again.
First, thank you for admitting there are a bunch of spells of that level you didn't intend to buff. Anything with recurring damage, smites, etc.
Second, it's fairly disingenuous to bring Burning Hands, which as a AoE spell does less than single target spells, and then move the goalposts that you aren't considering multi target damage from area of effects.
Third, you haven't addressed Hex and Hunter's Mark.
Fourth, you didn't address any of the points at the end. I'll break them out again:
4a. Spells doing half damage on successful save meaning that they do a lot more than an attack of equal dice that does nothing on a miss.
4b. Picking a spell to go against a poor save is easy with a large list of valid damage spells, and a poor save will fail more often than an attack misses, so spells again do more damage than an attack of equal dice.
So I don't need to try again, a good chunk of my points are still unaddressed.
Actually, every one of my points is either (a) unaddressed, (b) you agreed you shouldn't boost them, or (c) you've moved the goalposts by not including area of effect even though you were suggesting an area of effect spell.