D&D and the rising pandemic

[FrogReaver]

Is R0 in that situation 1.0 or not? Do people self-isolate better once they have symptoms?

But, using reasonable assumptions, it is likely you are more likely to get it and spread it now, but getting it now and spreading it now is worse for the population and health care system.

Imagine you hit the emergency button and got the epidemic under control just in time. In 4-8 weeks your health care system is going to be maxed out with ICU usage. And that measures are bringing R0 down below 1 effectively.

If you get an infection or spread it now, you add to that spike. If you do actions that could spread it in 2-4 weeks, you add less to that spike; you add it to the falling action after the heath care system overload.

In a strange way, risky behavior doesn't matter if you have or catch covid 19 from it (!) The product of risky behavior over the population over time determines how much covid 19 spreads.

thanks for proving the point by not answering the question

 

[Nebulous]

I'm anticipating six months of quarantine until September. I hope I'm really, really wrong.

 

[FrogReaver]

I'm anticipating six months of quarantine until September. I hope I'm really, really wrong.

maybe 6 months of social distancing. You should be able to go outevery 2-4 weeks to restock up on supplies

 

[Oofta]

I'm anticipating six months of quarantine until September. I hope I'm really, really wrong.

Some epidemiologists recommend that we basically quarantine ourselves until a vaccine is widely available in 1.5-2 years.

I don't know how long people will put up with the social isolation though, at a certain point I suspect that it will only be the vulnerable few who stay isolated. I suspect that unless it's really, really bad most people will put up with 2-4 weeks.

Especially because there's no guarantee there will ever be an effective vaccine.

 

[Umbran]

Is R0 in that situation 1.0 or not?

R0 is a broad statistical measure of how many others a carrier will infect in a population, overall. It does not really speak to, "what is my chance of catching (and thus spreading) during a specific trip to a grocery store".

The graph shown by HarbingerX is nice, though it doesn't adjust for local variation - it is also broad, over the population. You don't expect it to be a good estimate for people living in a hotspot. And even then, it gives you the odds of a carrier being present, not about what it takes for you to pick it up.

People need to eat. Folks will have to shop when they need to shop. For the most part, their timing will be based more on their needs - they won't have much option to choose unless they were far ahead of the game. When you are out of essentials, you are going shopping. Sitting home malnourished will not reduce risk of transmission, after all

Given that shopping has to happen, I would imagine that exactly what portion of the epidemic you go in is less important than whether you can minimize your exposure when you do go - if you are standing for 20 minutes in a crown at checkout, that's bad. If you are in and out swiftly, that's better.

 

[Umbran]

Some epidemiologists recommend that we basically quarantine ourselves until a vaccine is widely available in 1.5-2 years.

I don't know how long people will put up with the social isolation though

Whether or not people can put up with it, socially, economically, quarantine for that long just isn't feasible.

 

[Garthanos]

Especially because there's no guarantee there will ever be an effective vaccine.

No guarantee but the docs seem confident that this is very approachable.

 

[Oofta]

No guarantee but the docs seem confident that this is very approachable.

Yeah, in a way we're lucky and a lot of progress has been made in the war against viruses.

I am cautiously optimistic for the longer term. But I think the best we're going to do in the short term is try to slow down the infection rate enough that the medical systems don't get completely overloaded.

If we're really, really lucky we'll learn our lesson and prepare for the next potential pandemic and take steps before it gets this bad. With the world as connected as it is, it's not a question of if there will be another potentially more deadly disease disease outbreak, it's a question of when. Time will tell.

 

[seebs]

Could be 1.5-2 years, could be sooner if the researchers working on coronavirus vaccines get lucky, who the heck knows.

 

[NotAYakk]

Whether or not people can put up with it, socially, economically, quarantine for that long just isn't feasible.

Using what measure? WW2 probably lowered living standards less in UK than global social isolation would. UK survived.

What is "feasible" if you want to avoid millions of deaths?

That is the choice we'll have to make.

We'll be more informed the more we delay.

Information out of Iran, for example, will show one case of epidemic gone wild. Other poor and less insular areas will also be hit over the next month, and we'll has as much video of megadeaths this will cause if we surrender as we want.

Welcome to interesting times.