D&D and the rising pandemic

ad_hoc · Jun 25, 2020

Former Florida Data Official Rebekah Jones on State Manipulating COVID-19 Data

Florida’s COVID-19 cases continue to surge, making it one of the new hotspots in the country. In testimony to Congress this week, Dr. Anthony Fauci said…

www.wlrn.org

ICU:

"Their change in language and reporting doesn’t affect how many beds are available. And to say someone who is in an intensive care unit and doesn’t require intensive care and could essentially be kicked out of an ICU bed, if someone needed it, that kind of situation only happens if the immediate care beds are full. There would be nowhere to kick that person out to. And it’s a really irresponsible way to look at patient level care,” said Jones on Sundial."

Sounds like they are counting ICU beds as 'empty' if they decide that the person doesn't actually need to be in the bed. Hospitals here don't work like that. If a person doesn't need an ICU bed, they don't get one. If they have one, it is because they need it.

On reporting of cases:

"So over the last week or so, several hundred to potentially over a thousand cases have actually been deleted from the DOH data. So now on the home page of my dashboard, I put a special marker for counties where from one day to the next, they actually lost cases. So I make sure that that information is known. It is, unfortunately, the only means that we have of getting confirmed positive information about residents in Florida. We have to work with that. We have to understand its limitations and its nuances. And I've worked really hard to kind of explain those on the dashboard."

Here is Jones' dashboard:

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

According to her there are 117 480 positive cases while the official number is at 109 014.

Levistus's_Leviathan · Jun 25, 2020

I hope that she's not correct, but I think it's not unlikely she is telling the truth.

Dannyalcatraz · Jun 25, 2020

Local news interviewed her and the Florida DOH. In response to her accusations of data manipulation, the DOH pointed out she relied on unofficial sources for some of her data.

...and for those who remember past pandemic shenanigans, the DOH is probably referring to her use of death reports directly from the regional coroners, which the DOH stopped using in late April.

Levistus's_Leviathan · Jun 25, 2020

The death rates and case rates are definitely higher than what we know, but whether officials are lying about it is not something we can really know at this point.

GreyLord · Jun 25, 2020

The general consensus from what I've seen is that the lady is truthful and that Florida has been hiding the truth in an effort of it's governor to downplay how serious it's become in Florida. Basically, it's hardcore republicans/conservatives on trying to hide the numbers to convince people to go outside and party and attract tourism vs. independents, liberals, and everyone else who are concerned about lives and living. It is infuriating.

I feel those who are pushing to retain and keep everything open or reopen everything are actually working against their own best interest and instead of being able to really have people trust going out (or be more like Europe and have faith it's actually decreased in cases), they've created a great deal of distrust which will enlongate the economic difficulties for many.

That's as much as I'll say on it, because it is a HIGHLY political item in my book.

In brighter news, my Edge of Empire Star Wars campaign is moving along nicely.

Zardnaar · Jun 25, 2020

Played session 2 of new campaign. 2 cases in South Island again via imports.

All in quarantine so far but creeping closer. No Covid locally for 2+ months.

Umbran · Jun 25, 2020

ad_hoc said:
Hospitals here don't work like that. If a person doesn't need an ICU bed, they don't get one. If they have one, it is because they need it.

You seem to be missing how situations change with time. Imagine a hospital in a highly actve covid area...

Person legitimately needs and goes into the ICU.
Over the next seven days, the other beds in the hospital fill with non-ICU patients.
Person who started in the ICU gets somewhat better. They no longer need the ICU, but there's nowhere else to put them. The hospital is full!
What are you going to do, put them out on the sidewalk?

Yes, we are talking about situations where the hospital works at or above capacity. No, this is not normal.

ad_hoc · Jun 25, 2020

Umbran said:
You seem to be missing how situations change with time. Imagine a hospital in a highly actve covid area...

Person legitimately needs and goes into the ICU.
Over the next seven days, the other beds in the hospital fill with non-ICU patients.
Person who started in the ICU gets somewhat better. They no longer need the ICU, but there's nowhere else to put them. The hospital is full!
What are you going to do, put them out on the sidewalk?

Yes, we are talking about situations where the hospital works at or above capacity. No, this is not normal.

That is not what Jones is arguing though.

Jones is not saying that patients who get better are able to come out of ICU. Jones alleges that they are designating some patients falsely as not actually needing to be in ICU (while not actually keeping track of non-ICU beds either).

I'm not making the argument.

Jones is well aware of basic things like this I'm sure. To imply otherwise is an insult to her.

Dannyalcatraz · Jun 25, 2020

ad_hoc said:
Jones is not saying that patients who get better are able to come out of ICU. Jones alleges that they are designating some patients falsely as not actually needing to be in ICU (while not actually keeping track of non-ICU beds either).

I'm not making the argument.

Jones is well aware of basic things like this I'm sure.

Yep.

IOW, according to Jones, Florida is manipulating the data so that it shows the state has more available space in its ICUs than it actually does, in order to serve the narrative of the numbers trending properly to continue reopening the state. Extremely, malevolently cynical, if true.

FWIW, according to our local news, Texas is fast approaching capacity for its ICUs (at least in the major cities) as well. We have days, maybe a week or two.

ad_hoc · Jun 25, 2020

Trump is ending federal funding for testing.

They really don't want to have public data about this.

The unfortunate thing is that testing isn't just there for people like me who like to look at numbers. It is essential for informing about outbreaks and conducting contact tracing to stop those outbreaks from spreading.

Though some think that it may be too late for even contact tracing (that is, the amount of contact tracing that is needed is far too great than what could be provided) in some areas as community spread widens.