Mercurius
Legend
An impossible question to answer definitively, especially given the current state of societal and environmental upheaval. But in the off chance that things continue roughly as-is, or maybe regain some equilibrium, and with likely but moderate technological advancements, there will inevitably be the split of those who go the route of VR and those who prefer "au naturale" (and many who like both). I don't think "organic D&D" will go away, as there will always be a nostalgia component* and it may be that many will simply prefer interacting with real people, rolling real dice, and playing in the realms of real imagination (over virtual simulation). I mean, the rise of D&D's popularity in recent years certainly attests to that.
(*and even as Gen Xers age out, there will be Millenials and Zoomers who feel nostalgia for a time that they barely, if at all, experienced; remember that Stranger Things was created by two brothers who were born the year their show is set in)
Let us also not forget that while 20 years in the future seems like a long way off, 20 years ago was the early days of 3E, which to anyone over 40, seems like just yesterday (2001 was the year 911 happened and Donnie Darko and Fellowship of the Ring came out...it is weird to think that was 20 years ago!). So if we want to speculate two decades hence, we can look back at how the game has changed over the last two decades. And the answer is:
Not that much. Sure, it has changed in lots of ways that rules wonks will want to correct me on. But in the grand scheme of things, they are mostly cosmetic. All of the classic components are still there, if in somewhat altered fashion. You have ability scores, races (new and old), classes, HP, saves, magic items, XP, etc.
So I think we start with that: the core components will still be present. It is just a matter of how they are put together. With regards to that, who knows.
There's also a tendency to go back and forth between stylistic extremes. 4E was a movement towards one side of a spectrum, and 5E a move backwards. We can imagine 6E (by whatever name: Revised D&D, Golden Anniversary D&D, or an actual official 6E) as embodying more of the trends that have arisen out of recent controversies. It will likely swing far in one direction, especially if it comes out by 2024 (the golden anniversary). But given the way things work, there will be an oscillation back: not towards social-cultural regression, but allowing for a greater diversity of play styles, including some that it left behind or de-emphasized.
I think one of the--if not the--great untapped potentials of D&D is the "modular options" and "complexity dial" of the Next era. So while the next iteration of D&D might emphasize tropes that jive with the socio-cultural paradigm that currently dominates RPGs, at some point the political component will diminish, but some of the underlying structural changes will remain: Meaning, it will shift from "You have to embody diversity this way" to "the rules are a core engine and toolbox that offers options to play any way you want." There are numerous ways this could happen, but I could see them further differentiating the campaign worlds to embody different styles of D&D game play. They already do this to some extent, but I think a furthering of "These are the many worlds of D&D, pick one or make your own" will continue to become more and more explicit.
(*and even as Gen Xers age out, there will be Millenials and Zoomers who feel nostalgia for a time that they barely, if at all, experienced; remember that Stranger Things was created by two brothers who were born the year their show is set in)
Let us also not forget that while 20 years in the future seems like a long way off, 20 years ago was the early days of 3E, which to anyone over 40, seems like just yesterday (2001 was the year 911 happened and Donnie Darko and Fellowship of the Ring came out...it is weird to think that was 20 years ago!). So if we want to speculate two decades hence, we can look back at how the game has changed over the last two decades. And the answer is:
Not that much. Sure, it has changed in lots of ways that rules wonks will want to correct me on. But in the grand scheme of things, they are mostly cosmetic. All of the classic components are still there, if in somewhat altered fashion. You have ability scores, races (new and old), classes, HP, saves, magic items, XP, etc.
So I think we start with that: the core components will still be present. It is just a matter of how they are put together. With regards to that, who knows.
There's also a tendency to go back and forth between stylistic extremes. 4E was a movement towards one side of a spectrum, and 5E a move backwards. We can imagine 6E (by whatever name: Revised D&D, Golden Anniversary D&D, or an actual official 6E) as embodying more of the trends that have arisen out of recent controversies. It will likely swing far in one direction, especially if it comes out by 2024 (the golden anniversary). But given the way things work, there will be an oscillation back: not towards social-cultural regression, but allowing for a greater diversity of play styles, including some that it left behind or de-emphasized.
I think one of the--if not the--great untapped potentials of D&D is the "modular options" and "complexity dial" of the Next era. So while the next iteration of D&D might emphasize tropes that jive with the socio-cultural paradigm that currently dominates RPGs, at some point the political component will diminish, but some of the underlying structural changes will remain: Meaning, it will shift from "You have to embody diversity this way" to "the rules are a core engine and toolbox that offers options to play any way you want." There are numerous ways this could happen, but I could see them further differentiating the campaign worlds to embody different styles of D&D game play. They already do this to some extent, but I think a furthering of "These are the many worlds of D&D, pick one or make your own" will continue to become more and more explicit.
